Türkiye’de Kisa Ve Uzun Dönem Sektörel Dinamikler

The purpose of this study is to examine the short and long-term interactions of industry, service and agriculture sectors which are three fundamental sectors of economy, with each other and with the gross domestic product (GDP), separately for the Turkish economy in the context of time series analyses. The data used in this study are quarterly and cover the period of 1998:Q1-2015:Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was used to investigate the long-run dynamic relationships between the variables. Then, the Toda- Yamamoto causality test was employed to detect the causal links between the variables. The results of ARDL bounds testing identify the long-run relationship between all variables except the models which in agricultural output is independent variable. The results of causality test indicate that there exists a two-way causality between GDP and industrial output, and between GDP and the output of service sector, also there exists a oneway causality from the output of service sector to industrial output.