ДИНАМИКА РАЗВИТИЯ ЗЕРНОПРОДУКТОВОГО ПОДКОМПЛЕКСА ВОЛОГОДСКОЙ ОБЛАСТИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ НЕОБХОДИМОСТИ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВЕННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

The current state of the grain subcomplexes located in Vologda region is analyzed. The authors also assessed the prospects of sub-complexes’ development taking into account the need to ensure the region’s food security. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the status and development progress of the grain subcomplexes and calculate their key performance indicators. To carry out our research we employed mathematical methods and a comparative analysis. The study revealed that the volumes of crops, namely wheat, rye, oats, barley and triticale in Vologda region are sufficient to ensure the standard level of flour consumption. At the same time a lack of the flour-milling capacity was registered in the region. The aggregate milling capacity of the region amounts only to 5,2 tons of grain per day with the required 23,2 tons of grain per day. To provide the needs of the region with flour products it is necessary to increase its milling capacity up to 24,6 tons per day and enlarge annual milling capacity up to 133 000 tons. Such numbers should be achieved by 2030. Unfortunately, these numbers were not reflected in the already approved State program of the Agricultural Complex Development and Consumer Market Promotion for Vologda region for the period of 2013–2020. This may pose a serious threat to the fulfillment of the program aimed at food security provision in the region.