Some Double Trump Model Characteristics and Experimental Applying Results

The main aim of the paper is to analyze theoretical aspects of development preconditions of original decision management in global currency market FOREX system and to analyze experimental results of decision manage-ment in currency market models, offered earlier by other authors. The greater attention is paid to so called double trump model of decision management in currency market (Rutkauskas, 2005), experimental implementation of which indicates the development possibilities of invest-ment strategies, allowing to make better investment deci-sions than those that are dictated by the market. Along with the examination of the selected model characteris-tics, which in authors opinion allowed to reveal the exis-tence of such strategies, principles of comparison of in-vestment decisions’ and strategy efficiency with the effi-ciency of the market were formulated. Furthermore, it is important to pay attention to one important factor of the implementation of the research, results of which are pre-sented in this work and other works of such direction published earlier by other authors. Wide-range experi-ment is carried out for the examination of expressed the-sis and for the verification of the developed original sys-tem of decision management in global currency and capi-tal markets. Hypothesis of market efficiency, formulated for the financial markets, and the random movement as-sumption of the price variation of financial assets con-tradict any possibility to create, using only historical data, such investment strategies, which allow to increase the investment effect, generated by the corresponding market, in a long-run period. However, the results, re-ceived by the authors, argue that such strategies are pos-sible. Twofold trump model of decision management in the global currency market FOREX, that was offered ear-lier by one of the authors and analysed in the paper, al-lows to form, leaning only on historical information, practically nonrisky investment strategies, allowing to gain higher investment effect than the effect, insured by the market investment instruments of the corresponding term. Single experiments to find the strategy of decision management in the currency market FOREX at any point of time were successful; however the authors carry out the long-term experiment to prove that in the currency market there are always “nonefficiency shoals”. The results of the experiment can be observed on the following web page: http://www.vgtu.lt/usr/rutkauskas/en/