EFFECTS OF WEATHER EXTREMES ON CROP YIELDS IN NIGERIA
This study seeks to analyze how extreme weather conditions affect crop yield and risk in Nigeria and to assess the potential implications of weather extremes on the nation's crop insurance portfolio. A panel of Nigerian state-level crop yields was paired with a fine-scale weather data set that...
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Veröffentlicht in: | African journal of food, agriculture, nutrition, and development : AJFAND agriculture, nutrition, and development : AJFAND, 2017-11, Vol.16 (4) |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | This study seeks to analyze how extreme weather conditions affect crop
yield and risk in Nigeria and to assess the potential implications of
weather extremes on the nation's crop insurance portfolio. A
panel of Nigerian state-level crop yields was paired with a fine-scale
weather data set that included distribution of temperature and
precipitation between the minimum and maximum across all days of the
growing season for selected crops. Weather data were examined from
January 1, 1991 to December 31, 2012. The analysis was started with the
traditional approach of estimating climate change impact by a quadratic
regression model of weather and Growing Degree Days (GDD) on crop
yields using panel data estimation. Later, Harmful Degree Days (HDD)
and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) were step-wisely included.
Interactions of rainfall, GDD and VPD were also explored. In the
production approach, crop yield was specified as a function of weather
inputs (temperature and precipitation). The results showed that the
time when the lowest and highest yields were obtained differed by
crops. The highest (43.50 kg/ha) and lowest (1.085kg/ha) yields for
cassava were observed in 1999 and 2001, respectively, while both
highest and lowest yields for sorghum were recorded in 2012. Daily
maximum temperature between 30 and 35 °C occurred more than a 1000
times over all the days covered in this study (January 1, 1991 to
December 31, 2012). The regression results showed that high damage to
cassava, cotton and maize was evident by the strong and negative
coefficient of Harmful Degree Days (HDD). For sorghum and rice, an
exposure to heat range showed a negative influence on the yield. In
order to address the negative weather effects and other problems
associated with the National Agricultural Insurance Corporation (NAIC)
such as little access by farmers, high information asymmetric and
transaction costs, crop insurance based on indices from Nigeria
Meteorological Agency (NIMET) could be adopted to compensate part of
the damage caused to the farm products. |
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ISSN: | 1684-5358 |