Improved calibration of a solid substrate fermentation model

Background: Calibration of dynamic models in biotechnology is challenging. Kinetic models are usually complex and differential equations are highly coupled involving a large number of parameters. In addition, available measurements are scarce and infrequent, and some key variables are often non-measurable. Therefore, effective optimization and statistical analysis methods are crucial to achieve meaningful results. In this research, we apply a metaheuristic scatter search algorithm to calibrate a solid substrate cultivation model. Results: Even though scatter search has shown to be effective for calibrating difficult nonlinear models, we show here that a posteriori analysis can significantly improve the accuracy and reliability of the estimation. Conclusions: Sensibility and correlation analysis helped us detect reliability problems and provided suggestions to improve the design of future experiments.