Sequentializing a Test: Anytime Validity is Free
An anytime valid sequential test permits us to peek at observations as they arrive. This means we can stop, continue or adapt the testing process based on the current data, without invalidating the inference. Given a maximum number of observations $N$, one may believe that this benefit must be paid...
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Zusammenfassung: | An anytime valid sequential test permits us to peek at observations as they
arrive. This means we can stop, continue or adapt the testing process based on
the current data, without invalidating the inference. Given a maximum number of
observations $N$, one may believe that this benefit must be paid for in terms
of power when compared to a conventional test that waits until all $N$
observations have arrived. Our key contribution is to show that this is false:
for any valid test based on $N$ observations, we derive an anytime valid
sequential test that matches it after $N$ observations. In addition, we show
that the value of the sequential test before a rejection is attained can be
directly used as a significance level for a subsequent test. We illustrate this
for the $z$-test. There, we find that the current state-of-the-art based on
log-optimal $e$-values can be obtained as a special limiting case that
replicates a $z$-test with level $\alpha \to 0$ as $N \to \infty$. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2501.03982 |