Deep Ensemble Shape Calibration: Multi-Field Post-hoc Calibration in Online Advertising

In the e-commerce advertising scenario, estimating the true probabilities (known as a calibrated estimate) on Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) is critical. Previous research has introduced numerous solutions for addressing the calibration problem. These methods typically involve the training of calibrators using a validation set and subsequently applying these calibrators to correct the original estimated values during online inference. However, what sets e-commerce advertising scenarios apart is the challenge of multi-field calibration. Multi-field calibration requires achieving calibration in each field. In order to achieve multi-field calibration, it is necessary to have a strong data utilization ability. Because the quantity of pCTR specified range for a single field-value (such as user ID and item ID) sample is relatively small, this makes the calibrator more difficult to train. However, existing methods have difficulty effectively addressing these issues. To solve these problems, we propose a new method named Deep Ensemble Shape Calibration (DESC). In terms of business understanding and interpretability, we decompose multi-field calibration into value calibration and shape calibration. We introduce innovative basis calibration functions, which enhance both function expression capabilities and data utilization by combining these basis calibration functions. A significant advancement lies in the development of an allocator capable of allocating the most suitable calibrators to different estimation error distributions within diverse fields and values. We achieve significant improvements in both public and industrial datasets. In online experiments, we observe a +2.5% increase in CVR and +4.0% in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume). Our code is now available at: https://github.com/HaoYang0123/DESC.