Observations of peak electric load growth in ERCOT with the rise of electrified heating and its implications for future resource planning

This analysis quantitatively compares the evolution in summer and winter peak demands in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) service area from 1997 through 2021. Weather data for the days in which peak demand occurred were also compiled to investigate the relationship between peak heating and cooling loads and ambient temperature. This relationship was then applied along with population projections and a climate scenario with medium to high radiative forcing to create winter and summer peak demand growth scenarios for 2025 through 2050. This analysis informs resource planners about how ERCOT peak demand might change in the future and provides new insight into how electric load growth and non-flexible electrified heating demand could have contributed to the February 2021 ERCOT blackouts. We found that historically, summer peak demand growth has been generally stable and approximately linear with time. The stable summer peak load is likely a consequence of fairly constant temperatures observed on summer peak demand days. Conversely, the winter peak demand growth has been less consistent, varying much more around the broader trend. This phenomenon is likely a consequence of high residential electrical heating load on winter peak demand days, which saw temperatures that varied widely from the mean value. Future peak winter and summer electricity demand scenarios indicated that while average temperatures on winter peak demand days will remain fairly constant, they will be more erratic than temperatures on summer peak demand days. As a result, winter peak demand will remain more erratic and will sporadically surpass summer peak demand between 2025 and 2050. Thus, resource planners in ERCOT should place less certainty on winter peak demand projections and an increased level of winter preparedness on both the supply and demand sectors appears warranted.