Perfectly predicting ICU length of stay: too good to be true
A paper of Alsinglawi et al was recently accepted and published in Scientific Reports. In this paper, the authors aim to predict length of stay (LOS), discretized into either long (> 7 days) or short stays (< 7 days), of lung cancer patients in an ICU department using various machine learning...
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Zusammenfassung: | A paper of Alsinglawi et al was recently accepted and published in Scientific
Reports. In this paper, the authors aim to predict length of stay (LOS),
discretized into either long (> 7 days) or short stays (< 7 days), of lung
cancer patients in an ICU department using various machine learning techniques.
The authors claim to achieve perfect results with an Area Under the Receiver
Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of 100% with a Random Forest (RF)
classifier with ADASYN class balancing over sampling technique, which if
accurate could have significant implications for hospital management. However,
we have identified several methodological flaws within the manuscript which
cause the results to be overly optimistic and would have serious consequences
if used in a clinical practice. Moreover, the reporting of the methodology is
unclear and many important details are missing from the manuscript, which makes
reproduction extremely difficult. We highlight the effect these oversights have
had on the result and provide a more believable result of 88.91% AUROC when
these oversights are corrected. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2211.05597 |