Limited or Biased: Modeling Sub-Rational Human Investors in Financial Markets
Human decision-making in real-life deviates significantly from the optimal decisions made by fully rational agents, primarily due to computational limitations or psychological biases. While existing studies in behavioral finance have discovered various aspects of human sub-rationality, there lacks a...
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Zusammenfassung: | Human decision-making in real-life deviates significantly from the optimal
decisions made by fully rational agents, primarily due to computational
limitations or psychological biases. While existing studies in behavioral
finance have discovered various aspects of human sub-rationality, there lacks a
comprehensive framework to transfer these findings into an adaptive human model
applicable across diverse financial market scenarios. In this study, we
introduce a flexible model that incorporates five different aspects of human
sub-rationality using reinforcement learning. Our model is trained using a
high-fidelity multi-agent market simulator, which overcomes limitations
associated with the scarcity of labeled data of individual investors. We
evaluate the behavior of sub-rational human investors using hand-crafted market
scenarios and SHAP value analysis, showing that our model accurately reproduces
the observations in the previous studies and reveals insights of the driving
factors of human behavior. Finally, we explore the impact of sub-rationality on
the investor's Profit and Loss (PnL) and market quality. Our experiments reveal
that bounded-rational and prospect-biased human behaviors improve liquidity but
diminish price efficiency, whereas human behavior influenced by myopia,
optimism, and pessimism reduces market liquidity. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.2210.08569 |