Prevalence of international migration: an alternative for small area estimation

This paper introduces an alternative procedure for estimating the prevalence of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The new methodology uses the empirical best linear unbiased predictor based on a Fay-Herriot model with target and auxiliary variables available from census studies and from the Demographic and Health Survey. The proposed alternative produces prevalence estimates which are consistent with sample sizes and demographic dynamics in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered as reliable.