Using ForeCAT Deflections and Rotations to Constrain the Early Evolution of CMEs

To accurately predict the space weather effects of coronal mass ejection (CME) impacts at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth, and the CME parameters upon impact. Kay et al. (2015b) presents Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts, and the CME orientation upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2008 April 10 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34 degrees deflection and 58 degrees rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (