Approximate Bayesian Solution for Estimating Population Size from Dual-record System
For Dual-record system, in the context of human population, the popular Chandrasekar-Deming model incorporates only the time variation effect on capture probabilities. How-ever, in practice population may undergo behavioral change after being captured first time. In this paper we focus on the Dual-r...
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Zusammenfassung: | For Dual-record system, in the context of human population, the popular
Chandrasekar-Deming model incorporates only the time variation effect on
capture probabilities. How-ever, in practice population may undergo behavioral
change after being captured first time. In this paper we focus on the
Dual-record system model (equivalent to capture- recapture model with two
sampling occasions) with both the time as well as behavioral response
variation. The relevant model suffers from identifiability problem. Two
approaches are proposed from which approximate Bayes estimates can be obtained
using very simple Gibbs sampling strategies. We explore the features of our two
proposed methods and their usages depending on the availability (or
non-availability) of the information on the nature of behavioral response
effect. Extensive simulation studies are carried out to evaluate their
performances and compare with few available approaches. Finally, a real data
application is provided to the model and the methods. |
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DOI: | 10.48550/arxiv.1311.3812 |