Agricultural Crop Forecasting for Large Geographical Areas

Crop forecasting is important to national and international trade and food security. Although sample surveys continue to have a role in many national crop forecasting programs, the increasing challenges of list frame undercoverage, declining response rates, increasing response burden, and increasing costs are leading government agencies to replace some or all of survey data with data from other sources. This article reviews the primary approaches currently being used to produce official statistics, including surveys, remote sensing, and the integration of these with meteorological, administrative, or other data. The research opportunities for improving current methods of forecasting crop yield and quantifying the uncertainty associated with the prediction are highlighted.