Phenology based adjustments to population survey data show no temporal change in the status or distribution of Cape petrels in the Vestfold Islands

1. The Excel spreadsheet titled "1_Cape Petrel Population adjusted Estimates_Table1.xlsx is population survey count data and estimates of Cape petrels in the Vestfold islands, East Antarctica in 1974 and 2017. Numbers present the number of occupied nests in each year. Adjusted data as per ICESCAPE modelling and provides a value based on attendance of Cape petrels relative to phenology, values in brackets are the lower and upper confidence intervals based on 95% confidence. No data is where there was no survey data available; however a 0 indicates the island was searched, however no breeding birds recorded at that site. Four surveys of Cape petrel breeding populations have been conducted in the Vestfold Islands: 1972-73 (Johnstone et al 1973), 1974-75 (AAD unpublished data), 2016-17 (Louise Emmerson and Anna Lashko) and 2017-18 austral summers (Kimberley Kliska and Marcus Salton). Here we refer to breeding seasons as the year eggs were laid, which was also when surveys were conducted. For example, 1972-73 breeding season spans from October 1972 until April 1973 and is referred to as 1972; 1974/75 is referred to as 1974 and 2017/18 as 2017. In 1972, numbers of occupied nests and distribution were assessed from ground surveys across the Vestfold Islands region and Cape petrels were found only in the southern half of the Vestfold Islands. In 1974, all accessible islands in this southern region were again surveyed from the ground or sea ice for Cape petrels from Bluff Island south to the Sørsdal Glacier. In addition, the ‘Northern Islands’ (Figure 1) were opportunistically searched during seal surveys conducted from 1-8th November 1974, and no sign of breeding Cape petrels were recorded (Williams, pers. comm. 2020). The 2016 survey focussed on identifying islands with cape petrels present in the south from ground-based activities, and in the north from aerial surveys. The 2017 survey focused search effort on all the islands where breeding Cape petrels were observed in 1972 and 1974. Similar to the 1974 survey, the Northern Islands were opportunistically searched for Cape petrels during seal surveys between the 5-13th December 2017, and no Cape petrels were observed. To our knowledge, no Cape petrels have been observed in the Northern Islands. We are therefore confident that this study encompasses the entire Vestfold Islands population. To assess the status and temporal change in population numbers of Cape petrels in the Vestfold Islands, datasets from the three