Conflicts on the Rise - Is Anticipatory Governance a Solution?

We can anticipate increases in world conflicts due to several factors. First, as COVID-19 and other infectious pathogens continue to race around the world, future epidemics and pandemics are likely to emerge given our failures to solve the root issues that cause them. This is expected to result in increased social tensions. Second, post-WWII UN agreements are increasingly being challenged or might even collapse, as can be seen in a number of violent conflicts around the world, most recently in the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Third, climate change, environmental pollution and water/food insecurity will likely force entire populations to move from their homes and home nations. Migration pressures will then likely further jeopardize various global agreements, most notably those relevant to human rights of refugees. Fourth, geo-political arrangements will be increasingly questioned, as one global hegemon continues to descend and the other one potentially rises. And, finally, social and political polarisation within nation states is expected to continue. All these issues have been taking place for several decades, recently, however, there has been an acceleration with changes compounding each other. Multiple aspects of change will thus need to be considered simultaneously as well as promptly. This article investigates the potential of anticipatory governance to minimise conflict. It first identifies numerous public policy failures, either due to the outright lack of anticipatory governance or certain blind spots/detrimental assumptions within anticipatory public policy initiatives. It then provides several case studies where anticipatory governance has shown the potential to minimise conflict. The article concludes with a set of guidelines as to the type of anticipatory governance that is currently urgently needed in order to minimise existing and prevent future violent conflicts.