Transition Scenarios via Backcasting

This article offers "transition scenarios" as a variation on the backcasting technique. The variation in essence developed a shorter-term version of a long-term set of scenarios that had been developed just a few years prior. The scenarios themselves are only briefly highlighted as the principal emp...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of Futures Studies 2019-09, Vol.24 (1), p.1-14
Hauptverfasser: Andy Hines, Johann Schutte, Maria Romero
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:This article offers "transition scenarios" as a variation on the backcasting technique. The variation in essence developed a shorter-term version of a long-term set of scenarios that had been developed just a few years prior. The scenarios themselves are only briefly highlighted as the principal emphasis is on the methodological variation. A full version of the scenarios is part of a separate "Global Technical Report" publication (Hines, Schutte, Romero, & Bengston, 2019). The variation is offered in the spirit of an experiment in the hope that it might be useful to futurists and others confronted with a similar methodological challenge of working with a client who "already has" scenarios that are judged to be outside of a useful planning horizon.
ISSN:1027-6084
DOI:10.6531/JFS.201909_24(1).0001