Using Futures Studies Methodologies to Explore the Economic Participation of the Older Cohorts of South Africa's Population Towards 2030
The South African population is ageing in an interesting manner. The median age was 26 in 2015, but the proportionate share of older cohorts is increasing rapidly. The older cohorts face numerous challenges around economic participation. This article highlights the research findings of a statistical...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of Futures Studies 2018-09, Vol.23 (1), p.5-22 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
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Zusammenfassung: | The South African population is ageing in an interesting manner. The median age was 26 in 2015, but the proportionate share of older cohorts is increasing rapidly. The older cohorts face numerous challenges around economic participation. This article highlights the research findings of a statistical analysis of the population's demographic profile, a causal layered analysis to deepen the understanding of the problem, and the generation of a set of scenarios to imagine the plausible futures of economic participation by people aged 55 and older toward 2030. Findings indicate that planners who presently focus most of their efforts on the youth may be surprised by the exponential increase in the numbers of older people. The article further describes the use of the four causal layered analysis levels (litany, systems, worldviews and myths/metaphors) to give structure to and enable richer comparisons between the different scenarios in a set. |
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ISSN: | 1027-6084 |
DOI: | 10.6531/JFS.201809_23(1).0002 |