Can Simple Models Predict Air Combat Results?

This paper investigated the potential value of models and simulations to predict the results of aerial engagements. Three historical scenarios from 1965 to 1991 were examined. A modified salvo model and an air combat simulation were compared with real-world data from these scenarios. These models and simulations were also used to examine a hypothetical future scenario to determine potential insights. The results of this comparison indicated that even simple models and simulations can provide useful metrics. Care must be taken, however, to account for sufficient real-world effects. The use of multiple models and/or a number of study runs can also help improve predictive capability. Notably, even where real-world data are unavailable, as in the hypothetical future scenario, the predictions of combined modeling and simulation runs generated interesting results and highlighted areas for further study. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]