New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic study: simulating the impacts on natural gas transmission pipelines and downstream markets

This paper summarizes the methodology, simulation tools, and major initial findings made by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) on the potential impact of simultaneous, high-intensity New Madrid and Wabash Valley Seismic Events on the natural gas interstate pipelines and their subsequent impacts on the downstream customers, particularly on the states under the purview of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region V operations. Downstream impacts are expressed in terms of percent reduction in deliveries, population affected, and numbers of commercial and industrial customers shed. Damage functions and fragility curves are employed to identify specific pipelines that could potentially be affected, as well as the probable location(s) of the pipeline breaks and leaks. Effects of emergency remedial measures to mitigate impacts are also simulated. The methodology employed two models: (1) the FEMA-developed HAZUS MH-MR3 and (2) the Argonne-developed NGFast pipeline break simulation tool. The models are described, and their complementary roles are discussed.