Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic
Since 2016, Plan Blue wargames have explored scenarios that depict large-scale war fights against state adversaries in order to help U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) leaders better understand the demands of these potential war fights, evaluate the capabilities and limitations of programmed for...
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
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Santa Monica
RAND
2023
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| Schriftenreihe: | Report
A970-1 |
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| Online-Zugang: | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA970-1 Literaturverzeichnis |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Summary of Game Play -- Chapter Three: Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers -- Appendix A: Plan Blue 21 Scenario Assumptions Memo -- Appendix B: Plan Blue 21 Steady-State Game Mechanics -- Appendix C: Crisis Cards Developed to Support Plan Blue 21 | |
| 520 | 3 | |a Since 2016, Plan Blue wargames have explored scenarios that depict large-scale war fights against state adversaries in order to help U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) leaders better understand the demands of these potential war fights, evaluate the capabilities and limitations of programmed forces to meet those demands, and test new approaches to projecting power. The 2021 iteration of the game (Plan Blue 21) was set in the Arctic, in keeping with the Department of Defense's 2019 Arctic strategy, which calls for enhancing capabilities for operations in the region and strengthening the rules-based order there. The purpose of the game was to increase the DAF's understanding of the capabilities, posture, allied command, control, and communication relationships that may be called for to support future Arctic operations. Focusing on competition with Russia in the year 2030, game play took place in the context of steady-state competition and crisis operations rather than large-scale combat, and it explored the intersection of two key trends: (1) changing environmental conditions and (2) the completion of current Russian investments in new military capabilities and infrastructure in the Arctic. Plan Blue 21 was also specifically designed to test the extent to which capabilities for persistent and visible intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance can provide real-time situational awareness and potentially contribute to "deterrence by detection." U.S. players in Plan Blue 21 benefitted greatly from the participation of officers from key allied and partner countries that have important interests in and capabilities for operations in the Arctic region | |
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Implications, Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), March 2019. DeWeerd, Harvey A., A Contextual Approach to Scenario Construction, RAND Corporation, 1973. As of September 13, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P5084.html Dickie, Gloria, and Timothy Gardner, “Arctic Council in Upheaval over Russia as Climate Change Transforms Region,” Reuters, March 3, 2022. Everstine, Brian, “Close Encounters of a Familiar Kind,” Air Force Magazine, November 1, 2020. 69
Finnish Government, Finland’s Strategy for the Arctic Region, Institutional Repository for the Government of Finland Valto, June 2021. Government of Canada, “Canada’s Arctic and Northern Policy Framework,” webpage, November 2019. As of December 30, 2021: https://www.rcaanc-cirnac.gc.ca/eng/1560523306861/1560523330587 Government Offices of Sweden, Sweden ’s Strategy for the Arctic Region, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, November 2020. Graczyk, Piotr, and Svein Vigeland Rottem, “The Arctic Council: Soft Actions, Hard Effects?” in Gunhild Hoogensen Gjorv, Marc Lanteigne, and Horatio Sam-Aggrey, eds., Routledge Handbook ofArctic Security, Routledge, 2020, Hamilton, Thomas, and David Ochmanek, Operating Low-Cost, Reusable Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Contested Environments: Preliminary Evaluation of Operational Concepts, RAND Corporation, RR-4407-AF, 2020. As of January 5, 2023: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4407.html Hodes, David, “Can LEO Meet the Changing Arctic’s Connectivity Needs?” Via Satellite, October 2021. Humper, Malte, “The Future of the Northern Sea Route—A ‘Golden Waterway’ or a Niche Trade Route,” The Arctic Institute, September 15, 2011. Intelsat, “Global Satellite Network,” webpage, undated. As of January 5, 2022: https://www.intelsatgeneral.com/global-network/satellite-network Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers,” in H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, Μ. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, Μ. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, and N. Μ. Weyer, eds., IPCC Special
Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, April 20, 2021. International Institute for Strategic Studies, “The GIUK Gap’s Strategic Significance,” Strategic Comment, Vol. 25, Comment 29, October 2019. International Telecommunication Union, “Effects of Tropospheric Refraction on Radiowave Propagation,” Recommendation ITU-R P.834-9, December 2017. IPCC—See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Kendall-Taylor, Andrea, Jim Townsend, Lawson W. Brigham, and Nicholas Lokker, Navigating Relations with Russia in the Arctic: A Roadmap for Stability, Center for New American Security, November 18, 2021. Kingdom of Denmark, Kingdom ofDenmark Strategy for the Arctic 2011-2020, 2011. 70
Kristensen, Hans, “Increasing Nuclear Bomber Operations,” Strategie Security Blog, Federation of American Scientists, September 25, 2016. Larson, Wiley J., and James R. Wertz, eds., Space Mission Analysis and Design, 3rd ed., Space Technology Library, Microcosm Press and Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999. Larter, David В., “The U.S. Navy Returns to an Increasingly Militarized Arctic,” Defense News, May 12, 2020. Lillard, John Μ., Playing War: Wargaming and U.S. Navy Preparations for World War II, University of Nebraska Press, 2016. Liu, Zhongfang, Camille Risi, Francis Codron, Xiaogang He, Christopher J. Poulsen, Zhongwang Wei, Dong Chen, Sha Li, and Gabriel J. Brown, “Acceleration of Western Arctic Sea Ice Loss Linked to the Pacific North American Pattem,” Nature Communications, Vol. 12, No. 1519, 2021. Mahnken, Thomas G., Travis Sharp, and Grace B. Kim, Deterrence by Detection: A Key Role for Unmanned Aircraft Systems in Great Power Competition, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, April 14, 2020. Melino, Matthew, and Heather A. Conley, The Ice Curtain: Russian ’s Arctic Military Presence, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2020. Meredith, Μ., Μ. Sommerkorn, S. Cassotta, C. Derksen, A. Ekaykin, A. Hollowed, G. Kofinas, A. Mackintosh, J. Melbourne-Thomas, Μ. Μ. C. Muelbert, G. Ottersen, H. Pritchard, and E. A. G. Schuur, “Polar Regions,” in H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, Μ. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegria, Μ. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, and N. Μ. Weyer, eds., IPCC Special Report on the Ocean
and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019. Nakashima, Ellen, and Craig Timberg, “Russian Government Hackers Are Behind a Broad Espionage Campaign That Has Compromised U.S. Agencies, Including Treasury and Commerce,” Washington Post, December 14, 2020. Nesheiwat, Julia, and Andro Mathewson, “Securing the North: Expanding the United States’ Icebreaker Fleet,” Military Times, January 26, 2022. Nilsen, Thomas, “Russia’s ‘Doomsday Drone’ Prepares for Testing,” Barents Observer, May 26, 2020. Norwegian Ministries, The Norwegian Government's Arctic Policy: People, Opportunities and Norwegian Interests in the Arctic, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, January 2021. Notz, Dirk, and Simip Community, “Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, No. 10, 2020. 71
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Report to Congress: Department ofDefense Arctic Strategy, Government Printing Office, June 2019. O’Rourke, Ronald, Coast Guard Polar Security Cutter (Polar Icebreaker) Program: Background and Issues for Congress, Congressional Research Service, RL34391, December 30, 2021. Osthagen, Andreas, “High North, Low Politics—Maritime Cooperation with Russia in the Arctic,” Arctic Review on Law and Politics, Vol. 7, No. 1, 2016. Overfield, Cornell, “An Off-the-Shelf Guide to Extended Continental Shelves and the Arctic,” Lawfare Institute, April 21, 2021. As of January 6, 2022: https://www.lawfareblog.com/shelf-guide-extended-continental-shelves-and-arctic Paul, Christopher, Michael Nixon, and Paul DeLuca, One Hot Ship: Air-Naval Integration Opportunities in Maritime Interdiction Operations, RAND Corporation, 2010. Not available to the general public. Pettyjohn, Stacie L., and Becca Wasser, Competing in the Gray Zone: Russian Tactics and Western Responses, RAND Corporation, RR-2791-A, 2019. As of January 6, 2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2791.html Pezard, Stephanie, The New Geopolitics of the Arctic: Russia ’s and China ’s Evolving Role in the Region, CT-500, Testimony presented before the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development of the Canadian House of Commons on November 26, 2018. Pezard, Stephanie, Abbie Tingstad, and Alexandra Hall, The Future ofArctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment: Insights from a Scenario-Based Exercise, organised by RAND and Hosted by NUPI.
RAND Corporation, PE-268-RC, 2018. As of January 6, 2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE268.html Pezard, Stephanie, Abbie Tingstad, Kristin Van Abel, and Scott R. Stephenson, Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North, RAND Corporation, RR-1731-RC, 2017. As of January 7, 2022: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRl 731 .html Pugliese, David, “Canada Plans New $1-Billion Radar to Protect North American Cities,” Ottawa Citizen, April 25, 2022. Rainbow, Jason, “Arctic Connectivity Competition Is Heating Up,” SpaceNews, May 13, 2022. Rumer, Eugene, Richard Sokolsku, and Paul Stronski, Russia in the Arctic—A Critical Examination, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 29, 2021. “Russia Accused of Disrupting New Energy Link Between Sweden and Lithuania,” EURACTIV, May 4, 2015. 72
“Russia Completes Equipping of Six Military Bases in Arctic—General Staff Source,” TASS, December 7, 2015. “Russia Test-Fires Tsirkon Hypersonic Missile in Arctic,” Moscow Times, November 18, 2021. The Russian Federation, The Russian Federation ’s National Security Strategy, December 31, 2015. The Russian Federation, Foundations of the Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic for the Period Up to 2035, trans, by Anna Davis and Ryan Vest, Russian Maritime Studies Institute, United States Naval War College, March 5, 2020. Sacks, Benjamin J., Scott R. Stephenson, Stephanie Pezard, Abbie Tingstad, and Camilla T. N. Sorensen, Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures, RAND Corporation, RR-A1007-1, 2021. As of January 6, 2022: https.7/www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1007-l.html U.S. Coast Guard, United States Coast Guard Arctic Strategic Outlook, Government Printing Office, April 2019. U.S. Department of the Air Force, “E-3 Sentry (AWACS),” fact sheet, undated. As of January 11, 2022: https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104504/e-3-sentry-awacs/ U.S. Department of the Air Force, The Department of the Air Force Arctic Strategy, Government Printing Office, July 2020. U.S. Department of the Army, Regaining Arctic Dominance: The U.S. Army in the Arctic, Government Printing Office, January 2021. U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Strategic Approach for Arctic Homeland Security, Government Printing Office, January 2021. U.S. Department of the Navy, Department of the Navy: A Strategic Blueprint
for the Arctic, Government Printing Office, January 2021. U.S. European Command Public Affairs, “U.S. Air Force Personnel Arrive for First-Ever Norway Deployment,” U.S. European Command, February 2, 2021. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Defense Satellite Communications: DOD Needs Additional Information to Improve Procurements, GAO-15-459, July 2015. U.S. Government Accountability Office, Force Structure: F-22 Organization and Utilization Changes Could Improve Aircraft Availability and Pilot Training, GAO-18-190, July 19, 2018. Vallejo, Justin, “Russian Hackers Stole Thousands of State Department Emails, Reports Claim,” The Independent, March 31, 2021. White House, National Strategyfor the Arctic Region, Government Printing Office, May 2013. 73
White House, Implementation Plan for the National Strategyfor the Arctic Region, Government Printing Office, January 2014. Zysk, Katerzyna, Russia ’s Military Build-Up in the Arctic: To What End?, Center for Naval Analysis, September 2020. Zysk, Katarzyna, “Predictable Unpredictability? U.S. Arctic Strategy and Ways of Doing Business in the Region,” War on the Rocks, March 11, 2021. Bayerische Staatsbibliothek München |
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| contents | Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Summary of Game Play -- Chapter Three: Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers -- Appendix A: Plan Blue 21 Scenario Assumptions Memo -- Appendix B: Plan Blue 21 Steady-State Game Mechanics -- Appendix C: Crisis Cards Developed to Support Plan Blue 21 |
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| format | Book |
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The 2021 iteration of the game (Plan Blue 21) was set in the Arctic, in keeping with the Department of Defense's 2019 Arctic strategy, which calls for enhancing capabilities for operations in the region and strengthening the rules-based order there. The purpose of the game was to increase the DAF's understanding of the capabilities, posture, allied command, control, and communication relationships that may be called for to support future Arctic operations. Focusing on competition with Russia in the year 2030, game play took place in the context of steady-state competition and crisis operations rather than large-scale combat, and it explored the intersection of two key trends: (1) changing environmental conditions and (2) the completion of current Russian investments in new military capabilities and infrastructure in the Arctic. 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| geographic | USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd Arktis (DE-588)4002924-4 gnd Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd |
| geographic_facet | USA Arktis Russland |
| id | DE-604.BV049604632 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T23:35:13Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-31T01:12:54Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781977412706 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-034948989 |
| oclc_num | 1443582897 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | viii, 74 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten 28 cm |
| psigel | BSB_NED_20240710 |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateSearch | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | RAND |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Report |
| spelling | Bartels, Elizabeth M. Verfasser (DE-588)1170090621 aut Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic Elizabeth M. Bartels, David A. Ochmanek, Nathaniel Edenfield [und 22 weitere] Santa Monica RAND 2023 viii, 74 Seiten Illustrationen, Karten 28 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Report A970-1 Title from PDF document (title page; viewed December 15, 2023) "RAND PROJECT AIR FORCE "Prepared for the Department of the Air Force Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Summary of Game Play -- Chapter Three: Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers -- Appendix A: Plan Blue 21 Scenario Assumptions Memo -- Appendix B: Plan Blue 21 Steady-State Game Mechanics -- Appendix C: Crisis Cards Developed to Support Plan Blue 21 Since 2016, Plan Blue wargames have explored scenarios that depict large-scale war fights against state adversaries in order to help U.S. Department of the Air Force (DAF) leaders better understand the demands of these potential war fights, evaluate the capabilities and limitations of programmed forces to meet those demands, and test new approaches to projecting power. The 2021 iteration of the game (Plan Blue 21) was set in the Arctic, in keeping with the Department of Defense's 2019 Arctic strategy, which calls for enhancing capabilities for operations in the region and strengthening the rules-based order there. The purpose of the game was to increase the DAF's understanding of the capabilities, posture, allied command, control, and communication relationships that may be called for to support future Arctic operations. Focusing on competition with Russia in the year 2030, game play took place in the context of steady-state competition and crisis operations rather than large-scale combat, and it explored the intersection of two key trends: (1) changing environmental conditions and (2) the completion of current Russian investments in new military capabilities and infrastructure in the Arctic. Plan Blue 21 was also specifically designed to test the extent to which capabilities for persistent and visible intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance can provide real-time situational awareness and potentially contribute to "deterrence by detection." U.S. players in Plan Blue 21 benefitted greatly from the participation of officers from key allied and partner countries that have important interests in and capabilities for operations in the Arctic region Prognose 2030 gnd rswk-swf Kriegsspiel (DE-588)4165716-0 gnd rswk-swf Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf Arktis (DE-588)4002924-4 gnd rswk-swf Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 gnd rswk-swf United States / Air Force Security, International / Arctic regions Geopolitics / Arctic regions Arctic regions / Strategic aspects Arctic regions / Government policy / Russia (Federation) Geopolitical Strategic Competition Russia Security Cooperation United States Air Force États-Unis / Air Force Géopolitique / Arctique Arctique / Aspect stratégique Arctique / Politique gouvernementale / Russie USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Arktis (DE-588)4002924-4 g Russland (DE-588)4076899-5 g Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 s Kriegsspiel (DE-588)4165716-0 s Prognose 2030 z DE-604 Ochmanek, David A. 1951- Verfasser (DE-588)1047956861 aut Edenfield, Nathaniel Verfasser (DE-588)1229697667 aut Alkire, Brien Verfasser (DE-588)1229727078 aut https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA970-1 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034948989&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Literaturverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bartels, Elizabeth M. Ochmanek, David A. 1951- Edenfield, Nathaniel Alkire, Brien Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic Chapter One: Introduction -- Chapter Two: Summary of Game Play -- Chapter Three: Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers -- Appendix A: Plan Blue 21 Scenario Assumptions Memo -- Appendix B: Plan Blue 21 Steady-State Game Mechanics -- Appendix C: Crisis Cards Developed to Support Plan Blue 21 Kriegsspiel (DE-588)4165716-0 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4165716-0 (DE-588)4032081-9 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4002924-4 (DE-588)4076899-5 |
| title | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic |
| title_auth | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic |
| title_exact_search | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 Game Examining the Role of Sensing and Partner and Allied Contributions to Competition with Russia in the Arctic |
| title_full | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic Elizabeth M. Bartels, David A. Ochmanek, Nathaniel Edenfield [und 22 weitere] |
| title_fullStr | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic Elizabeth M. Bartels, David A. Ochmanek, Nathaniel Edenfield [und 22 weitere] |
| title_full_unstemmed | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic Elizabeth M. Bartels, David A. Ochmanek, Nathaniel Edenfield [und 22 weitere] |
| title_short | Insights from the Plan Blue 21 game |
| title_sort | insights from the plan blue 21 game examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with russia in the arctic |
| title_sub | examining the role of sensing and partner and allied contributions to competition with Russia in the Arctic |
| topic | Kriegsspiel (DE-588)4165716-0 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Kriegsspiel Konflikt USA Arktis Russland |
| url | https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA970-1 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=034948989&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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