Spreading Currency Crises The Role of Economic Interdependence
We analyze in this paper how the mutual dependence of private sector expectations in different countries on one another influences the stability of fixed exchange rate regimes. The crisis probabilities of countries trading with one another are interdependent because wage setters react to an imminent...
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Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
Sprache: | English |
Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C
International Monetary Fund
2002
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Schriftenreihe: | IMF Working Papers
Working Paper No. 02/144 |
Online-Zugang: | DE-20 DE-824 DE-70 DE-155 DE-29 DE-22 DE-473 DE-1102 DE-703 DE-859 DE-706 DE-384 DE-860 DE-19 DE-739 DE-355 DE-Aug4 DE-1049 DE-12 DE-91 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
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Zusammenfassung: | We analyze in this paper how the mutual dependence of private sector expectations in different countries on one another influences the stability of fixed exchange rate regimes. The crisis probabilities of countries trading with one another are interdependent because wage setters react to an imminent loss of international competitiveness stemming from an increase in the crisis probability of a trading partner. If a currency crisis in one country is perceived to be increasingly likely, the probability of devaluation of its trading partners' currencies to restore their international competitiveness rises as well. Thus, not only actual devaluations but also an increasing crisis probability may trigger currency crises elsewhere. We show that not only fundamental weaknesses but also spontaneous shifts in market sentiment may play a role in precipitating currency crises |
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Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (20 p) |
ISBN: | 1451856458 9781451856453 |