China's Economic New Normal Growth, Structure, and Momentum
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Singapore
Springer Singapore Pte. Limited
2020
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| Schriftenreihe: | Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China's Development Path Ser
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Inhaltsangabe:
- Intro
- Foreword
- Series Preface
- Contents
- 1 New Normal Brings New Opportunities
- 1 What Are the Causes of China's Economic Slowdown?
- 2 Further Demand Stimulation Is a Recipe for Disaster
- 3 Reform Toward a New Environment for Creative Destruction
- 2 Understanding and Adapting to the New Normal
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Causes of the Shift Toward the New Normal
- 2.1 China's New Normal Is a Result of the Decreasing Efficiency of Resource Allocation
- 3 The Inevitability of the New Normal
- 1 Where Is the Point of Equilibrium for Medium-to-High Growth?
- 2 When Will We Reach the Equilibrium Point?
- 3 Nonnegligible Peak Demand
- 4 Questions to Be Answered
- 5 Reforms and an Increase in the Potential Growth Rate
- 4 Global Economic Outlook in the Era of China's New Normal
- 5 Global Competition in Reform Under the New Normal
- 1 The New Normal of Developed Economies: Long-term Stagnation
- 2 Global Competition in Reform
- 2.1 New Connotations in the Period of Strategic Opportunity for China's Development Under the New Normal
- 2.2 Global Reform Competition
- 6 Structural Adjustments Under the New Normal
- 1 The New Normal: A Result of Natural Selection Featuring Lower Growth and Higher Risks
- 1.1 China: A Declining Growth Rate
- 1.2 Decline in the Potential Growth Rate and the Contribution of Total Factor Productivity
- 1.3 China: A Positive Credit-to-GDP Gap Versus a Negative Output Gap
- 1.4 A Downward Trend in External Demand After the Financial Crisis
- 1.5 China: Credit's Weakening Role in Driving GDP Growth and the Decline in Investment Growth
- 1.6 China: Credit Expansion and Deviation from Equilibrium
- 1.7 China: Increases in Credit Risk, Macroeconomic Risk, and Market Liquidity Risk
- 1.8 Uncertainty About the Timing and Degree of US and Japanese Rate Hikes
- 1.9 Reversion of Arbitrage Trading Returns and the Rising Pressure of Domestic Currency Depreciation
- 1.10 China: Risks of Shrinking Real Estate Investment and Further Decline of the Economic Growth Rate
- 2 Ways Out: Enormous Room for Structural Adjustments Toward Sustainable Growth
- 2.1 Room for the Expansion of China's Consumption
- 2.2 Room for the Expansion of China's Services
- 2.3 Room for Improvement in China's Trade Integration
- 2.4 Room for the Expansion of China's Financial Market
- 2.5 Room for the Restructuring of China's Financial Market
- 2.6 Room for an Increase in China's Household Debt
- 2.7 Room for the Equity Expansion of China's Non-financial Enterprises
- 3 Conclusions
- 7 China's New Normal and Deceleration Governance
- 1 The New Normal of the Chinese Economy
- 1.1 Characteristics of China's New Normal
- 1.2 The New Normal as Transition to Efficient Equilibrium
- 2 The Impacts and Superimposed Effects of Deceleration
- 2.1 Impact 1: Inverted U-Shaped Capital Growth
- 2.2 Impact 2: Inverted U-Shaped Workforce Growth
- 2.3 Impact 3: Decrease in the Learning-by-Doing Effect
- 2.4 Other Factors Superimposed on Deceleration
- 3 The Decline in Total Factor Productivity and Resource Allocation Efficiency
- 3.1 Capital Mismatch and TFP Decline
- 3.2 Estimates of China's TFP Growth
- 3.3 Institutional Explanations for Low Efficiency and the Governance of Growth Deceleration
- 4 Conclusions
- 4.1 Deceleration Governance
- 4.2 Structural Adjustment of Capital Stocks
- Reference
- 8 Aspects of the Middle Income Trap
- 1 The Inevitable Deceleration of Growth
- 2 The Paradox of the Middle Income Trap
- 3 Defining the Middle Income Trap
- 4 The Probability of Falling into the Middle Income Trap
- 5 Conclusions
- References
- 9 Positive Changes in China's Economic Structure
- 10 Productivity Under the New Normal: Latest Estimates and Interpretations of China's Total Factor Productivity
- 1 Introduction: Economic Deceleration and Productivity Under Structural Adjustment
- 2 Total Factor Productivity as an Institutional Issue
- 3 Cross-Subsidization in the Chinese Economy: An Exploratory Conceptual Framework
- 4 Research Objectives
- 5 Basic Statistics, Groupings, and Staging
- 6 Growth Accounting Methods
- 7 The Principle of Theoretical, Methodological, and Statistical Consistency
- 8 Estimates of Industrial/Sectoral Total Factor Productivity
- 9 APPF Estimates of Total Factor Productivity
- 10 Domar-Weighted Decomposition of China's TFP into Sectoral and Factor-Reallocation Effects
- 11 Conclusions
- References
- 11 New Trends and Determinants of China's Income Gap
- References
- 12 Changes in China's Labor Share: Estimation and Interpretation
- 1 The Labor Share Dispute
- 2 Changes in China's Labor Share: Estimates and Interpretations
- 3 Conclusion
- 13 Reform the Distribution System to Boost the Growth of Consumption
- 1 Changes in China's Share of Consumption
- 2 Correlation Between the Income Gap and Changes in the Shares of Consumption
- 3 China's Income and Wealth Gaps: A Predictive Point of View
- 4 Suggestions for Adjusting Income Distribution to Boost Consumption
- 14 Income Distribution and Economic Transformation
- 1 An Introduction to the China Household Finance Survey
- 2 The Status Quo of Income Distribution in China
- 3 Uneven Income Distribution: The Fundamental Reason for Sluggish Consumption
- 4 Transfer Payments and Economic Transformation
- 5 Conclusions
- 15 The Potential Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy
- Reference