Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL)
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| Sprache: | German |
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Köln ; Garching b. München ; Berlin ; Braunschweig
GRS
June 2017
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| Schriftenreihe: | GRS
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| LEADER | 00000nam a22000008cb4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV044466735 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20171011 | ||
| 007 | t| | ||
| 008 | 170830s2017 gw |||| t||| 00||| ger d | ||
| 016 | 7 | |a 1138053198 |2 DE-101 | |
| 020 | |a 9783944161945 |c Broschur |9 978-3-944161-94-5 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1004312604 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)DNB1138053198 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a ger | |
| 044 | |a gw |c XA-DE | ||
| 049 | |a DE-91 |a DE-12 | ||
| 084 | |a NUC 801f |2 stub | ||
| 088 | |a GRS-412 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Spießl, Sabine Maria |d 1969- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)129974420 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) |c Sabine Spiessl, Dirk-Alexander Becker |
| 264 | 1 | |a Köln ; Garching b. München ; Berlin ; Braunschweig |b GRS |c June 2017 | |
| 300 | |a V, 144 Seiten |b Diagramme | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 1 | |a GRS |v 412 | |
| 500 | |a Literaturverzeichnis Seite 123-128. - Förderkennzeichen BMWi 02E10941. | ||
| 655 | 7 | |0 (DE-588)4155043-2 |a Forschungsbericht |2 gnd-content | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Becker, Dirk-Alexander |d 1963- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)17264951X |4 aut | |
| 830 | 0 | |a GRS |v 412 |w (DE-604)BV008889593 |9 412 | |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m DNB Datenaustausch |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029867254&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029867254 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| DE-BY-TUM_call_number | 0001 2017 B 1651 |
|---|---|
| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 2280510 |
| DE-BY-TUM_location | Mag |
| DE-BY-TUM_media_number | 040009403901 |
| _version_ | 1820801023899336704 |
| adam_text | TABLE
OF
CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................
1
1.1
BACKGROUND
.........................................................................................................
1
1.2
MANAGEMENT
OF
UNCERTAINTIES
.............................................................................
1
1.2.1
IDENTIFICATION
AND
QUANTIFICATION
OF
INHERENT
UNCERTAINTIES
...............................2
1.2.2
UNCERTAINTY
AND
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
..................................................................
3
1.2.3
TIME-DEPENDENT
VERSUS
MAXIMUM
ANALYSIS
.....................................................4
1.2.4
ASSESSMENT
OF
UNCERTAINTIES
AND
DRAWING
CONSEQUENCES
.............................
4
1.3
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
AND
ITS
ROLE
IN
THE
SAFETY
CASE
...........................................
5
2
OVERVIEW
OF
METHODS
FOR
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
............................................
9
2.1
BASIC
TERMS
AND
NOTATIONS
..................................................................................
9
2.2
MONTE-CARLO
(MC)
METHODS
..............................................................................
9
2.3
SAMPLING
...........................................................................................................
11
2.3.1
RANDOM
SAMPLING
.............................................................................................
11
2.3.2
STRATIFIED
SAMPLING
............................................................................................
11
2.3.3
QUASI-RANDOM
(LOW-DISCREPANCY)
SAMPLING
...................................................
13
2.3.4
PERIODIC
SAMPLING
.............................................................................................
14
2.3.5
CORRELATION
.........................................................................................................
15
2.3.6
COMPARISON
OF
SAMPLING
METHODS
...................................................................
16
2.4
UNCERTAINTY
ANALYSIS
..........................................................................................
19
2.4.1
GRAPHICAL
UNCERTAINTY
ANALYSIS
........................................................................
19
2.4.2
NUMERICAL
UNCERTAINTY
ANALYSIS
.......................................................................
21
2.5
GRAPHICAL
METHODS
FOR
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
.....................................................
23
2.5.1
SCATTERPLOTS
........................................................................................................
23
2.5.2
CONTRIBUTION
TO
THE
SAMPLE
MEAN
(CSM)
.......................................................
23
2.5.3
CONTRIBUTION
TO
THE
SAMPLE
VARIANCE
(CSV)
...................................................
24
2.5.4
CUMULATED
SUMS
OF
NORMALISED
RE-ORDERED
OUTPUT
(CUSUNORO)
............
24
2.5.5
CONDITIONAL
COBWEB
PLOTS
AND
MEAN
RANK
PLOTS
............................................
25
2.6
CORRELATION-
AND
REGRESSION-BASED
METHODS
..................................................
26
I
2.6.1
PEARSON
*
S
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS
...................................................................
26
2.6.2
STANDARDISED
REGRESSION
COEFFICIENTS
(SRC)
..................................................
27
2.6.3
PARTIAL
CORRELATION
COEFFICIENTS
(PCC)
..............................................................
28
2.6.4
RANK
TRANSFORMATION
..........................................................................................
29
2.7
VARIANCE-BASED
METHODS
..................................................................................
30
2.7.1
THE
SOBOL
*
METHOD
.............................................................................................32
2.7.2
(EXTENDED)
FOURIER
AMPLITUDE
SENSITIVITY
TEST
(FAST/EFAST)
................... 32
2.7.3
RANDOM
BALANCE
DESIGN
(RBD)
......................................................................
33
2.7.4
EFFECTIVE
ALGORITHM
FOR
COMPUTING
GLOBAL
SENSITIVITY
INDICES
(EASI)
.............
34
2.7.5
METAMODELLING
AND
STATE-DEPENDENT
PARAMETER
METHOD
(SDP)
................
34
2.8
NON-PARAMETRIC
METHODS
..................................................................................
35
2.8.1
TWO-SAMPLE
TESTS
...............................................................................................
36
3
DESCRIPTION
OF
THE
TEST
SYSTEMS
...................................................................
37
3.1
REPOSITORY
FOR
SPENT
FUEL
AND
HLW
IN
CLAY
....................................................
37
3.2
REPOSITORY
FOR
LILW
IN
ROCK
SALT
.......................................................................
38
3.3
REPOSITORY
FOR
SPENT
FUEL
AND
HLW
IN
ROCK
SALT
(SAM-GBS)
.....................
41
4
GRAPHICAL
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
.......................................................................
45
4.1
SCATTERPLOTS
.........................................................................................................
45
4.1.1
SCATTERPLOTS
FOR
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
......................................................................
45
4.1.2
SCATTERPLOTS
FOR
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
......................................................................
47
4.2
CSM,
CUSUNORO
AND
CSV
PLOTS
.................................................................
50
4.2.1
CSM
PLOTS
FOR
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
..........................................................................
50
4.2.2
CSM
PLOTS
FOR
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
........................................................................
52
4.2.3
CSM
VERSUS
CUSUNORO
...............................................................................
54
4.2.4
CSV
PLOTS
...........................................................................................................
55
4.3
SUMMARY
..............................................................................................................
56
5
CORRELATION-
AND
REGRESSION-BASED
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
........................
59
5.1
COMPARISON
OF
CORRELATION
AND
REGRESSION
.....................................................
59
5.2
THE
PRINCIPLE
MESSAGE
......................................................................................
60
5.3
DIRECT
EVALUATION
OF
THE
MODEL
OUTPUT
(SRC)
.................................................
61
5.3.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................
61
5.3.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
61
5.4
RANK-BASED
EVALUATION
(SRRC)
......................................................................
62
5.4.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
.................................................................................................
62
5.4.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
63
5.5
SUMMARY
...........................................................................................................
64
6
VARIANCE-BASED
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
...........................................................
65
6.1
SOBOL
*
METHOD
...................................................................................................
66
6.1.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................
66
6.1.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
67
6.2
EFAST
................................................................................................................
69
6.2.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................
69
6.2.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
70
6.3
RBD
....................................................................................................................
71
6.3.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................72
6.3.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
72
6.4
EASI
...................................................................................................................
73
6.4.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................
73
6.4.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
74
6.5
SDP
....................................................................................................................
75
6.5.1
THE
CLAY
SYSTEM
................................................................................................
75
6.5.2
THE
LILW
SYSTEM
..............................................................................................
75
6.6
COMPARISON
WITH
REGRESSION-BASED
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
...............................
76
6.7
SUMMARY
...........................................................................................................
78
7
INFLUENCE
OF
THE
SAMPLING
SCHEME
..............................................................
81
7.1
RANDOM
SAMPLING
VERSUS
LATIN
HYPERCUBE
SAMPLING
.................................
81
7.2
RANDOM
SAMPLING
VERSUS
QUASI-RANDOM
LPTAU
SAMPLING
...........................83
7.3
SUMMARY
...........................................................................................................
84
III
8
DETAILED
SENSITIVITY
INVESTIGATIONS
...............................................................
85
8.1
INFLUENCE
OF
NUMBER
OF
PARAMETERS
..................................................................
85
8.2
HIDDEN
SENSITIVITIES
............................................................................................
88
8.3
HANDLING
OF
TWO-SPLIT
OUTPUT
BY
A
DYNAMIC
TWO
SAMPLE
TEST
.........................
91
8.4
SUMMARY
.............................................................................................................
93
9
OUTPUT
TRANSFORMATION
....................................................................................
95
9.1
DEFINITION
OF
TRANSFORMATIONS
.............................................................................
96
9.2
SELECTION
OF
THE
THRESHOLD
.................................................................................
98
9.3
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
RESULTS
................................................................................
99
9.3.1
THE
SAM-GBS
MODEL
.......................................................................................
99
9.3.2
THE
LILW
MODEL
..............................................................................................
102
9.4
SUMMARY
...........................................................................................................105
10
HANDLING
OF
PARAMETER
DEPENDENCIES
.......................................................
107
11
SUMMARY,
RECOMMENDATIONS
AND
OUTLOOK
...............................................
109
11.1
PROJECT
SUMMARY
AND
GENERAL
CONCLUSIONS
...................................................109
11.1.1
BACKGROUND
AND
PROJECT
SETUP
.......................................................................109
11.1.2
GRAPHICAL
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
.........................................................................110
11.1.3
CORRELATION-
AND
REGRESSION-BASED
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
...............................
111
11.1.4
VARIANCE-BASED
SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
..............................................................
111
11.1.5
THE
ROLE
OF
THE
SAMPLING
SCHEME
.................................................................. 112
11.1.6
DEPENDANCE
ON
THE
SET
OF
PARAMETERS
......................................................... 113
11.1.7
TWO-SAMPLE
TESTS
.............................................................................................113
11.1.8
OUTPUT
TRANSFORMATION
.....................................................................................
114
11.2
RECOMMENDATION
FOR
PROCEEDING
IN
PRACTICAL
CASES
....................................
115
11.3
RELATED
WORK
AND
OUTLOOK
...............................................................................120
LIST
OF
REFERENCES
...............................................................................................................
123
LIST
OF
FIGURES
......................................................................................................................
129
LIST
OF
TABLES
.........................................................................................................................
133
IV
A
DATA
OF
THE
TEST
SYSTEMS
.............................................................................
135
A.1
REPOSITORY
FOR
SPENT
FUEL
AND
HLW
IN
CLAY
................................................
135
A.2
REPOSITORY
FOR
LOW-
AND
INTERMEDIATE-LEVEL
WASTE
(LILW)
IN
ROCK
SALT...
140
V
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Spießl, Sabine Maria 1969- Becker, Dirk-Alexander 1963- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)129974420 (DE-588)17264951X |
| author_facet | Spießl, Sabine Maria 1969- Becker, Dirk-Alexander 1963- |
| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Spießl, Sabine Maria 1969- |
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| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV044466735 |
| classification_tum | NUC 801f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1004312604 (DE-599)DNB1138053198 |
| discipline | Energietechnik |
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| genre | (DE-588)4155043-2 Forschungsbericht gnd-content |
| genre_facet | Forschungsbericht |
| id | DE-604.BV044466735 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-24T06:08:57Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783944161945 |
| language | German |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029867254 |
| oclc_num | 1004312604 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-12 |
| physical | V, 144 Seiten Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSearch | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | GRS |
| record_format | marc |
| series | GRS |
| series2 | GRS |
| spellingShingle | Spießl, Sabine Maria 1969- Becker, Dirk-Alexander 1963- Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) GRS |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4155043-2 |
| title | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) |
| title_auth | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) |
| title_exact_search | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) |
| title_full | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) Sabine Spiessl, Dirk-Alexander Becker |
| title_fullStr | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) Sabine Spiessl, Dirk-Alexander Becker |
| title_full_unstemmed | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) Sabine Spiessl, Dirk-Alexander Becker |
| title_short | Investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles (MOSEL) |
| title_sort | investigation of modern methods of probalistic sensitivity analysis of final respository performance assessment modles mosel |
| topic_facet | Forschungsbericht |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029867254&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV008889593 |
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