Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support
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| Sprache: | English |
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Wiley
[2017]
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| Schriftenreihe: | Geophysical monograph
223 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Natural hazard uncertainty assessment |b modeling and decision support |c Karin Riley, Peter Webley, Matthew Thompsom, editors |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819616015275786240 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Contributors..........................................................................................vii
1 Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support: An Introduction to This Volume
Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, and Kevin D. Hyde...................................1
Part I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support 9
2 Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis
Matthew Thompson and jord f. Warmink.............................................................11
3 Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science
Florian Rauser and Cernot Geppert.................................................................21
4 Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support:
An Example from the United States
Matthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H. Scott, and Michael Hand...................................31
5 Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling
Peter Webley......................................................................................43
Part II: Geological Hazards 57
6 Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real-Time VATD
Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E. Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla,
Matthew D. Jones, Reza Madankan, E. Ramona Stefanescu, and Solene Pouget.........................59
7 Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters
from InSAR Observation
Wenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, and Franz Meyer.............................................................89
8 Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties
Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan R dulescu, Damien Martin,
Andreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O Dowd, and Gerhard Wotawa..................105
9 Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through
the Energy Cone Model
Pablo Tlerz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli,
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Warner Marzocchi......................................................125
10 Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea,
Using a Site Classification Map
Su Young Kang and Kwang-Hee Kim..................................................................147
11 Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate
Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador
Eric Ross Anderson, Robert E. Griffin, and Daniel E. Irwin.......................................167
12 Evaluating the Performance of FL02D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active
Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatepetl and Volcan de Colima
Lizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, and Rosario Vazquez...............................................179
vi CONTENTS
Part III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards 191
13 An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling
Karin Riley and Matthew Thompson....................................................................193
14 Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties:
Case Studies in Northern Sub-Saharan Africa
Charles Ichoku, Luke T. Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, and Johannes W. Kaiser..........................215
15 Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections
Maureen C. Kennedy and Donald McKenzie...............................................................231
16 Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area
Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA
Adam J. Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow,
and Jaime A. Collazo.................................................................................245
17 Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States
Using CMIP5 Climate Projections
D. Bachelet, T. Sheehan, K. Ferschweiler, and J. Abatzoglou........................................257
18 Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers
in the HESFIRE Model: Consequences for Fire Modeling and Projection Uncertainties
Yannick Le Page......................................................................................277
19 Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire
Kevin D. Hyde, Karin Riley, and Cathelijne Stoof....................................................287
20 Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire
Debris-Flow Hazard Assessments
Jessica R. Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, and Joe H. Scott...................................301
21 Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris-Flow Triggering Rainfall: Evaluation and Impact
on Identification of Threshold Relationships
E. I. Nikolopoulos, F. Marra, and M. Borga.........................................................319
22 Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty
Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, and Adam Schlosser.........329
Index
337
i
Natural Hazard
Uncertainty Assessment
Modeling and Decision Support
Karin Riley, US Forest Service, USA 1
Peter Webley, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA
Matthew Thompson, US Forest Service, USA f ՛
r
Modeling has been used to characterize and map natural
hazards and hazard susceptibility for decades. Uncertainties are
pervasive in natural hazards analysis, including a limited ability
to predict where and when extreme events will occur, with what
consequences, and driven by what contributing factors. Modeling
efforts are challenged by the intrinsic variability of natural and
human systems, missing or erroneous data, parametric uncertainty,
model-based or structural uncertainty, and knowledge gaps,
among other factors. Further, scientists and engineers must
translate these uncertainties to inform policy decision making,
which entails its own set of uncertainties regarding valuation,
understanding limitations, societal preferences, and cost-benefit
analysis. Thus, it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful
approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties. However, only recently have researchers begun to
systematically characterize and quantify uncertainty in the modeling of natural hazards.
To that end, this volume presents a collection of studies representing:
• Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, ranging from
wildfires to volcanic eruptions to landslides
• Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to
address various sources of uncertainty
• Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes
• Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences
This volume constitutes an excellent resource for those interested in current work on uncertainty classification
and quantification, and documents common and emergent research themes in order to enable cross-disciplinary
knowledge transfer at a time when the need for uncertainty assessment is growing due to expanding human
populations and a changing climate.
www.wiley.com
Wiley fëAGU.
American Gaophytkal Union
ISBN 978-1-119 02786 7
411 Also available
as an e-book
|
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| isbn | 9781119027867 |
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| physical | x, 346 Seiten Illustrationen |
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| series | Geophysical monograph |
| series2 | Geophysical monograph |
| spellingShingle | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support Geophysical monograph Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 gnd Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4041387-1 (DE-588)4121590-4 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4202680-5 (DE-588)4123823-0 |
| title | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support |
| title_auth | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support |
| title_exact_search | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support |
| title_full | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support Karin Riley, Peter Webley, Matthew Thompsom, editors |
| title_fullStr | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support Karin Riley, Peter Webley, Matthew Thompsom, editors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support Karin Riley, Peter Webley, Matthew Thompsom, editors |
| title_short | Natural hazard uncertainty assessment |
| title_sort | natural hazard uncertainty assessment modeling and decision support |
| title_sub | modeling and decision support |
| topic | Naturkatastrophe (DE-588)4041387-1 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Katastrophenrisiko (DE-588)4202680-5 gnd Naturgefahr (DE-588)4123823-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Naturkatastrophe Risikomanagement Risikoanalyse Prognose Katastrophenrisiko Naturgefahr |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029405225&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029405225&sequence=000002&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV000012308 |
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