Experts in uncertainty opinion and subjective probability in science
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York
Oxford University Press
1991
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| Schriftenreihe: | Environmental ethics and science policy
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | DE-1046 DE-1047 Volltext |
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| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index Think tanks and oracles -- Expert opinion in practice -- Probabilistic thinking -- Heuristics and biases -- Building rational consensus -- Savage's normative decision theory -- Relative frequencies and exchangeability -- Elicitation and scoring -- Scoring rules for evaluating and weighing assessments -- Two experiments with calibration and entropy -- Combining expert opinions : review of the literature -- Classical model -- Bayesian model -- Psychological scaling models : paired comparisons -- Applications This volume contains an extensive survey and critical examination of current views on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy-making |
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| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (xii, 321 p.) |
| ISBN: | 0195064658 0195362373 9780195064650 9780195362374 |