Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh |c Winston H. Yu ... |
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| 264 | 1 | |a London [u.a.] |b Earthscan |c 2010 | |
| 300 | |a XXIV, 144 S., [8] Bl. |b Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. | ||
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| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020502309 | |
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| _version_ | 1819664547605118976 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh
Autor: Yu, Winston H.
Jahr: 2010
Contents
List of Figures and Tables
Acknowledgements
Foreword by Isabel M. Guerrero
Executive Summary
Glossary of Terms
Acronyms
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Objectives of Study
1.2 Literature Review
1.3 Integrated Modelling Methodology
1.4 Organization of Study
2 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE RISKS
2.1 The Success of Agriculture
2.2 Living with Annual Floods
2.3 Lean Season Water Availability
2.4 Sea level Rise in Coastal Areas
2.5 Regional Hydrology Issues
VII
xi
xiii
xv
xxi
xxiii
1
2
2
3
4
5
6
10
15
17
19
21
FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
3.1 Future Estimated Precipitation and
Temperature 22
3.2 Future Sea level Rise 26
FUTURE FLOOD HYDROLOGY 28
4.1 GBM Basin Model Development 28
4.2 National Hydrologic Super Model 30
4.3 Approach to Modelling Future Flood
Changes 30
4.4 Future Changes over the Ganges-
Brahmaputra-Meghna Basin 31
4.5 Future Flood Characteristics and
Analysis 33
FUTURE CROP PERFORMANCE 41
5.1 Development of the Baseline Period 42
5.2 Developing Flood Damage Functions 46
5.3 Incorporating Coastal Inundation
Effects 48
5.4 Projections of Future Potential
Unflooded Production (Climate Only) 49
5.5 Projections of Future Projected Flood
Damages 52
5.6 Projections of Potential Coastal
Inundation Damages 53
5.7 Projections of Integrated Damages 53
5.8 Using the Crop Model to Simulate
Adaptation Options 56
6 ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
RISKS 60
6.1 Integrating Climate Effects in an
Economy-wide Model 61
6.2 Economic Impacts of Existing
Climate Variability 64
6.3 Additional Economic Impacts of
Climate Change 72
7 ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN THE
AGRICULTURE SECTOR
7.1 Identifying and Evaluating
Adaptation Options
82
83
8 THE WAY FORWARD - TURNING IDEAS
TO ACTION 105
8.1 A Framework for Assessing the
Economics of Climate Change 107
ANNEX 1 - Using DSSAT to Model
Adaptation Impacts 108
ANNEX 2 - Description of the CGE Model 113
ANNEX 3 - Constructing the Social
Accounting Matrix for Bangladesh 119
References 133
Index 139
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
1.1 Multi-stage integrated framework
methodology 3
2.1 Agricultural and total GDP growth
trends, 1975-2008 7
2.2 Historical trends in rice production
quantities in Bangladesh, 1972-2006 8
2.3 Historical trends in land area under rice
cultivation in Bangladesh, 1972-2006 8
2.4 Decomposition of historical Aman rice
production trends into land area and
yield contributions, 1972-2006 9
2.5 Observed yields for major staples
(kg/ha) 9
2.6 Time-series of flood-affected areas
(km2) in Bangladesh (1954-2004) 11
2.7 Annual and seasonal precipitation
time-series (mm) averaged across
Bangladesh Meteorological
Department stations 12
2.8 Average discharges in 1998 and 2002
for (a) Brahmaputra, (b) Ganges and
(c) Meghna rivers 13
2.9 Cropping calendar corresponding to
flood land type 14
2.10 Aman crop production loss curve as a
function of combined discharge 16
2.11 Locations of coastal water level
stations 17
2.12 Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river
basin 20
3.1 Monthly, annual and seasonal
temperature changes 24
3.2 Monthly, annual and seasonal
precipitation changes 25
4.1 Validated discharges from 1998-2007
at (a) Bahadurabad (b) Hardinge Bridge 29
4.2 Temperature changes for A2 scenario
over GBM basin (the 2050s) 32
4.3 Percentage change in discharges in
(a) the 2030s and (b) the 2050s for A2
scenario in August 33
4.4 Percentage change in discharges in
(a) the 2030s and (b) the 2050s for A2
scenario in May 34
4.5 Total change in national flooded area
for (a) 2030s A2, (b) 2030s B1,
(c) 2050s A2, (d) 2050s B1 36
4.6 Yearly peak levels at Jamuna station
for the baseline and model
experiments (2030s) 37
4.7 Average hydrographs (baseline, 2030s,
2050s) for MIROC GCM and A2
scenario on Teesta River 38
4.8 Average hydrographs (baseline, 2030s,
2050s) for GFDL GCM and A2 scenario
on Meghna River 38
4.9 Average hydrographs on the Gorai
River (baseline, 2030s, and 2050s -
for CCSM A2 scenario) and plus/
minus one standard deviation bounds 39
5.1 Baseline sub-regional yields with flood
damages applied (as a percentage of
undamaged yields) 48
5.2 Percentage change (versus the
baseline undamaged simulation) in
national potential production of a) aus,
b) aman, c) boro and d) wheat 50
5.3 Percentage change (versus the
baseline flood-only simulation) In
national potential production affected
by basin floods of a) aus and b) aman
(boro and wheat are assumed to be
flood-free) 53
5.4 Percentage of production lost to
coastal inundation associated with
sea level rise in each coastal region
sub-region (9-16) for three future
scenarios, as compared to the
baseline period (for A2 SRES) 54
VIII
Climate Change Risks and Food Security in Bangladesh
5.5 Percentage change (versus the
baseline flood-affected simulation) in
national potential production with the
combined effects of CO,, temperature
and precipitation, and basin flooding of
a) aus, b) aman, c) boro and d) wheat 55
5.6 Regional production changes from
baseline (per cent) for 2050s (a) aman,
(b) aus, (c) boro and (d) wheat 57
6.1 Losses in total national rice production
due to existing climate variability,
2005-50 66
6.2 Losses in national rice production by
crop due to existing climate variability,
2005-50, (a) aus, (b) aman, (c) boro 67
6.3 Decomposing regional rice production
losses due to existing climate
variability, 2005-50 69
6.4 Losses in national agricultural GDP
due to existing climate variability,
2005-50 69
6.5 Losses in national total GDP due to
existing climate variability, 2005-50 71
6.6 Losses in total national rice production
due to climate change, 2005-50 73
6.7 Losses in national rice production by
crop due to climate change, 2005-50 75
6.8 Deviation in average final year rice
production from the Existing Variability
Scenario under the Average Climate
Change Scenario, 2050 76
6.9 Deviation in average final year rice
production from the Existing Variability
Scenario under different emissions
scenarios, 2050 76
6.10 Losses in national agricultural GDP
due to climate change, 2005-50 77
6.11 Losses in national total GDP due to
climate change, 2005-50 79
6.12 Cumulative discounted losses due to
climate change as a share of total
GDP, 2005-50 80
7.1 Layout of modified sorjan system 88
Tables
2.1 Production of different crop varieties
(metric tons) 6
2.2 Flood classifications 10
2.3 Comparison of losses resulting from
recent large floods 11
2.4 Peak discharge and timing during
extreme flood years 12
2.5 Typical crop calendar for four different
rice varieties 14
2.6 Hydrological regions and flood land
types 15
2.7 Summary of drought severity areas in
Bangladesh by crop season (in Mha) 16
2.8 Estimated trends in water level of
different stations along the coastline 18
2.9 Area affected by low, moderate and
high salinity level (in 2005) 19
3.1 IPCC AR4 global circulation models 22
3.2 Summary precipitation statistics
averaged across Bangladesh
(1960-2001) 26
3.3 Sea level rise impacts on flood land
types 26
4.1 The sub-regions with hydrological
region, agro-ecological zone and
districts 32
4.2 Estimated average change (per cent)
in discharge across all model
experiments 33
4.3 Modelled baseline season flood land
type distribution for each month (ha) 35
4.4 Protected areas flood control and
drainage infrastructure (FCDI) 35
4.5 Number of model experiments
exceeding one standard deviation
bounds on baseline (2030s/2050s) and
2050s average estimated change in
area flooded 36
4.6 Peak water level summary for the 2050s 37
5.1 Sub-regional agricultural information 43
5.2 Climate information for each sub-
region: the representative BMD station,
its code and annual mean climate
statistics during the 1970-99 baseline
period 44
5.3 Soil profile information for each
sub-region 44
5.4 Agriculture management options for
simulations of the three main rice
varieties 45
5.5 Agriculture management options for
wheat simulations 46
5.6 Flood damages (percentage yield)
according to submergence depth,
duration and phenological stage 47
5.7 Representative hydrographs 48
List of Figures and Tables
5.8 Carbon dioxide concentrations (ppm)
for baseline period and future climate
scenarios 51
5.9 Median integrated production change
(per cent) for the 2030s and 2050s 54
5.10 Sub-regional average production
changes (per cent) disaggregated by
crop (aman, aus, boro, wheat) and
climate risk for 2050s - all scenarios 58
6.1 Summary of the Optimal Climate
Scenario 65
6.2 National rice production losses due
to existing climate variability, 2005-50 66
6.3 Regional rice production losses due
to existing climate variability, 2005-50 68
6.4 Losses in GDP due to existing climate
variability, 2005-50 70
6.5 Losses in national households
consumption spending due to existing
climate variability, 2005-50 72
6.6 National rice production losses due to
climate change, 2005-50 74
6.7 Average GDP losses due to climate
change, 2005-50 78
6.8 GDP losses under different climate
change scenarios, 2005-50 78
6.9 Losses in national households
consumption spending due to climate
change, 2005-50 80
6.10 Losses in regional farm households
consumption spending due to climate
change, 2005-50 81
7.1 Sample of past and present
programmes on adaptation in the
agriculture sector 84
7.2 Sample adaptation options in the
agriculture sector 84
7.3 Estimated costs and benefits of
selected adaptation options 85
7.4 Common vegetable cultivation
patterns 101
7.5 Common vegetable cropping
patterns for sorjan system 104
A1.1 Cultivars available in the DSSAT
v4.5 CERES-Rice model 108
A1.2 Genetic coefficients in the DSSAT
v4.5 CERES-Rice model 109
A1.3 Cultivars available in the DSSAT
v4.5 CERES-Wheat model 109
A1.4 Genetic coefficients in the DSSAT
v4.5 CERES-Wheat model 109
A1.5 Planting method options in the
DSSAT v4.5 models 110
A1.6 Tillage implements available in the
DSSAT v4.5 models 110
A1.7 Irrigation options in the DSSAT v4.5
models 111
A1.8 Fertilizer types in the DSSAT v4.5
models 111
A1.9 Fertilizer and organic amendment application options in the DSSAT
v4.5 models 111
A1.10 Organic amendments available in
the DSSAT v4.5 models 111
A2.1 Simple CGE model equations 114
A2.2 Simple CGE model variables and
parameters 115
A2.3 Summary of climate impact channels in economy-wide model
simulations 116
A3.1 Basic structure of a SAM 120
A3.2 Sectors in the 2005 Bangladesh SAM 122
A3.3 Average cultivated crop land allocation across divisions and scale
of production 123
A3.4 National and divisional per cent of
gross domestic product (GDP) 124
A3.5 Household factor income shares
from the 2005 Bangladesh SAM 125
A3.6 Household factor income shares from
the 2005 Household Income and
Expenditure Survey 125
A3.7 Household consumption 126
A3.8 2005 macro SAM for Bangladesh
(millions of Taka) 127
A3.9 Cross-entropy SAM estimation
equations 131
|
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| geographic | Bangladesch (DE-588)4130903-0 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Bangladesch |
| id | DE-604.BV036581408 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-24T00:08:18Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781849711302 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020502309 |
| oclc_num | 705683676 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | XXIV, 144 S., [8] Bl. Ill., graph. Darst., Kt. |
| publishDate | 2010 |
| publishDateSearch | 2010 |
| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | Earthscan |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Earthscan climate |
| spellingShingle | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh Ernährungssicherung (DE-588)4152826-8 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4152826-8 (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4130903-0 |
| title | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh |
| title_auth | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh |
| title_exact_search | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh |
| title_full | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh Winston H. Yu ... |
| title_fullStr | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh Winston H. Yu ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh Winston H. Yu ... |
| title_short | Climate change risks and food security in Bangladesh |
| title_sort | climate change risks and food security in bangladesh |
| topic | Ernährungssicherung (DE-588)4152826-8 gnd Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ernährungssicherung Klimaänderung Bangladesch |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020502309&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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