Elements of the system dynamics method
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.[u.a. ]
Productivity Press
1980
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Elements of the system dynamics method |c ed. by Jørgen Randers |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass.[u.a. ] |b Productivity Press |c 1980 | |
| 300 | |a XXIV, 320 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Systemtheorie |0 (DE-588)4058812-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017440114 | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819772210388140032 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Contributors XV
Introduction xvii
Published Works in System Dynamics xxiii
Parti
Paradigm
System Dynamics and Scientific
Method 3
James A. Bell and James F. Bell
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Functions of Method 4
1.3 Historical Perspective 6
1.4 Pros and Cons of Instrumentalism,
Paradigmism, Refutationism 16
1.5 Conclusions 20
Note 21
References 21
The Unavoidable A Priori 23
Donella H. Meadows
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 The Preconceptions of Modeling 25
2.3 Categories of Modeling Methods 27
viii
Contents
2.4 Two Modeling Schools 30
2.5 Paradigm Conflict 46
2.6 Conclusion 55
Note 56
References 56
Part II
Applied Principles
How Differences in Analytic Paradigms
Can Lead to Differences in Policy
Conclusions 61
David F. Andersen
3.1 Introduction 61
3.2 A Conceptual Framework for
Understanding the Influence of Alternative
Paradigms 62
3.3 Modeling Retirement Policies within the
Enlisted U.S. Military Force 64
3.4 The Coleman Report on Equality of
Educational Opportunity 68
3.5 Summary 73
Notes 74
References 74
The Multiplier-Accelerator Model of
Business Cycles Interpreted from a
System Dynamics Perspective 76
Gilbert W. Low
4.1 Introduction 76
4.2 Critique of the Multiplier-Accelerator
Model 78
4.3 Revision of the Multiplier-Accelerator
Model to Incorporate Information and Physical
Accumulations 82
Contents
4.4 Conclusions 89
Notes 91
References 92
Appendix: DYNAMO Equation Listing of
Revised Multiplier-Accelerator Model Used to
Produce Figure 4.6 94
Stock and Flow Variables and the
Dynamics of Supply and Demand 95
Nathaniel J. Mass
5.1 Introduction 95
5.2 Influence of Stock Variables on Dynamic
Economic Behavior 97
5.3 Conclusions 111
Notes 111
References 112
Part III
Conceptualization
Guidelines for Model
Conceptualization 117
Jørgen Randers
6.1 Introduction 117
6.2 The Process of Modeling 118
6.3 The Social Process as a Basis for Model
Conceptualization 120
6.4 The Reference Mode as a Guide to Model
Structure 121
6.5 Generalized Testing as a Guide in Model
Improvement 127
6.6 The Recommended Procedure 130
6.7 Common Mistakes and Some
Guidelines 136
Notes 138
Part IV
Formulation
Parameter Estimation in System
Dynamics Modeling 143
Alan K. Graham
7.1 Introduction 143
7.2 Estimation Using Data below Level of
Aggregation of Model Variables 144
7.3 Estimation Using a Model Equation 151
7.4 Estimation Using Multiple Equations 154
7.5 Conclusions 157
References 159
Appendix: Model Equations 161
Estimating Lengths and Orders of Delays
in System Dynamics Models 162
Margaret S. Hamilton
8.1 Introduction 162
8.2 Types of Delays 163
8.3 General Formulation of the Problem 165
8.4 Estimation Techniques 166
8.5 Empirical Estimations 173
8.6 Choosing an Estimation Technique 176
8.7 Validation 177
Notes 181
References 182
Part V
Testing
Sensitivity Analysis in System
Dynamics 185
Carsten Tank-Nielsen
9.1 Introduction 185
Contents
9.2 The Objectives 186
9.3 Types of Model Changes in Sensitivity
Analysis 189
9.4 The Interpretation of Model Response to
Changes 193
9.5 Sensitivity Analysis in the Process of
System Dynamics Modeling 194
9.6 Finál Remarks 197
Notě 201
References 201
Alternative Tests for Selecting Model
Variables 203
Nathaniel J. Mass and Peter M. Senge
10.1 Introduction 203
10.2 Statistical Tests for the Selection of
Model Variables 204
10.3 Model-Behavior Tests for the Selection
of Model Variables 207
10.4 A Case Study in Selecting Model
Variables 210
10.5 Applications of Model-Behavior Testing
to Alternative Theories of Social Behavior 217
10.6 Conclusions 218
Notes 220
References 221
Statistical Tools for System Dynamics 224
David W. Peterson
11.1 New Capabilities for System
Dynamics 224
11.2 GPSIE Implementation 238
11.3 Conclusions 239
Note 239
References 239
Appendix: Mathematical Definitions 241
Contents
xii
Part VI
Implementation
Managerial Sketches of the Steps
of Modeling 247
Jennifer M. Robinson
12.1 Introduction 247
12.2 Preconceptions 248
12.3 Establishing Contact 251
12.4 Conceptualization 253
12.5 Construction 259
12.6 Testing 260
12.7 Documentation 263
12.8 Implementation 265
Note 267
References 267
The Evolution of an Approach for
Achieving Implemented Results from
System Dynamics Projects 269
Henry Birdseye Weil
13.1 A Review of the Implementation Problem 269
13.2 Three Implementation Case Studies 271
13.3 Conclusions 284
Notes 287
References 289
A Modeling Procedure for Public
Policy 290
Lennart Stenberg
14.1 Introduction 290
14.2 History of the Project 294
14.3 The Modeling Process 298
14
Contents
14.4 Reference Groups ЗОЇ
14.5 Information Sources 303
14.6 Recommendations 305
Notes 310
References 310
Index 313
xiii
|
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| genre_facet | Konferenzschrift 1976 Geilo |
| id | DE-604.BV023797912 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-23T21:37:20Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0915299399 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017440114 |
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| owner_facet | DE-634 DE-11 |
| physical | XXIV, 320 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 1980 |
| publishDateSearch | 1980 |
| publishDateSort | 1980 |
| publisher | Productivity Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Elements of the system dynamics method Systemtheorie (DE-588)4058812-9 gnd System Dynamics (DE-588)4058802-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4058812-9 (DE-588)4058802-6 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Elements of the system dynamics method |
| title_auth | Elements of the system dynamics method |
| title_exact_search | Elements of the system dynamics method |
| title_full | Elements of the system dynamics method ed. by Jørgen Randers |
| title_fullStr | Elements of the system dynamics method ed. by Jørgen Randers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Elements of the system dynamics method ed. by Jørgen Randers |
| title_short | Elements of the system dynamics method |
| title_sort | elements of the system dynamics method |
| topic | Systemtheorie (DE-588)4058812-9 gnd System Dynamics (DE-588)4058802-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Systemtheorie System Dynamics Konferenzschrift 1976 Geilo |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017440114&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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