Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis

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1. Verfasser: Ambachtsheer, Keith P. (VerfasserIn)
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Veröffentlicht: Hoboken, N.J. Wiley 2007
Schriftenreihe:The Wiley finance series
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adam_text Contents Preface: Peter Drucker s Pension Revolution: Here at Last xxW Introduction: Why a Pension Revolution Now? xxvii The Trouble with DB Plans xxvii DC Plans Are Not the Answer Either xxviii Expert Pension Co ops xxix TOPS Tipping Points xxx PART ONE The Pension Revolution: Touchstones CHAPTHM Are Pension Funds Irrelevant ? 3 An Unreasonable Actuary? 3 Exley s Four Irrelevance Propositions 4 So What Is Relevant? 4 Responding to Exley 6 Relevant Pension Funds: Building the Case 6 Managing Retirement Income Risks 7 Leveling the Informational Playing Field 7 Getting the Execution of the Idea Right 8 CHAPTER2 The Pension Revolution—Are You a Believer Yet? 8 A Revolutionary Reordering of the Pensions Firmament 10 From Fuzzy Pension Deals to Risk Sharing Co ops 10 Toward Pension Business Models That Work: The Risk Issue 11 Toward Pension Business Models That Work: The Scale Issue 12 The Pension Governance Issue 13 IX X CONTENTS Two Role Models 14 PGGM 14 SunSuper 15 Great Treasures? 15 CHAPTERS After the Perfect Pension Storm: What Now? 16 From Vegas to Oxford: In Search of Answers 16 Do Nothing or Something? 17 The Corporate Context: Two Basic Choices 18 New DC Plan Business Model Also Needed 19 The Industry/Public Sector Pension Context 19 The Fair Value Question 20 Better Public Pensions Policy 21 CHAPTER 4 Beyond Portfolio Theory: The Next Frontier 22 Investment Theory s Next Frontier: The Academic View 22 Investment Theory s Next Frontier: Two Further Considerations 24 The Next Frontier: Integrative Investment Theory 25 CHAPTER 5 The United Airlines Case: Tipping Point f op U.S. Pension System? 29 The United Airlines Case 29 A Good Question and Two Very Different Answers 30 ERISA s Sole Interest Rule 31 Lessons from Abroad 32 Searching for Supreme Answers 33 The UAL Case in Context 34 CHAPTERS Peter Drucker s Pension Revolution After 30 Years: Not Over Yet 36 Two Unfashionable Themes 36 Politico Agency Issues 37 Pension Contract and Risk Issues 39 Investment Beliefs 40 Pension Fund Governance 40 Still Much Work to Do 41 Contents Xj CHAPTER 7 Winning the Pension Revolution: Why the Dutch Ape Leading the Way 42 The Globe s Number One Pensions Country 42 Culture, Compactness, and Leadership 44 Regulatory Leadership 45 Research Leadership 46 A Remaining Challenge: Solving the Organization Design Puzzle 46 What About the Other Pensions Countries? 47 CHAPTER 8 Pension Reform: Evolution or Revolution? 48 A Pension Tipping Point Indeed 48 What Should Happen? 49 Pension Reform in the United States 50 Pension Reform Elsewhere 51 Pension Reform: Evolution or Revolution? 52 PART TWO RuHding Better Pension Plans CHAPTER 9 Cm Game Theory Help Build Better Pension Plans? 57 Pension Games 57 Why do Pension Game Switches Occur? 58 Who Are the Stakeholders and What do They Want? 59 Sources of Risk in Pension Schemes 60 Mitigating Micro Risks 60 Can We Mitigate Macro Risks? 61 Is Investment Risk Worth Taking in DB Plans? 61 Can Game Theory Build Better Pension Plans? 62 CHAPTER 10 II DBand DC Plans Are Not the Answers, What Are the Questions? 63 From Answers to Questions 63 Ultimate Pension Questions and Their Consequences 64 Underwriting Pension Mismatch Risk: Any Volunteers? 64 Should Pension Mismatch Risk Be Minimized? 66 Pension Delivery Institutions 67 Benchmarking Traditional DB and DC Plans 67 The Way Ahead 68 Xjj CONTENTS CHAPTHI11 Human FoWes and Agency Dysfunction: Building Pension Plans fop the Real World 89 Some Fundamental Questions First 69 Back to First Principles 70 Human Foibles 71 Agency Issues 72 Counteracting Human Foibles 73 Minimizing Agency Costs 74 TOPS, Employers, and Public Policy 75 TOPS and DB Plans 77 CHAPTEH12 DB Plans and Bad Science 78 Science and the Design of Pension Contracts 78 The TOPS Contract 78 Taking on Investment Risk: Implications 79 Is Investment Regime Risk Insurable? 80 Intergenerational Bargaining 81 Robust Course Correction Mechanisms Required 82 The Flawed DB Model 82 Bad Science 83 CHAPTHI13 Peter Drucker s Pension Legacy: A Vision of What Could Be 84 Two Handshakes to Remember 84 The Melbourne Message 85 TOPS: Neither DC nor DB 86 TOPS and Investing 87 TOPS and Governance 87 TOPS and the Real World 88 The Drucker Visit 89 PARTTHRE Pension Fund Governance CHAPTBM4 Reinventing Pension Fund Management Easier Said than Done 93 A Paradigm Shift? 93 Novelties of Fact 94 Contents xjjj Novelties of Theory 94 Pension Industry Responses 96 Crossing the Innovation Chasm 97 CHAPTBH5 Should (Could) You Manage Your Fund Like Harvard or Ontario Teachers ? 89 Four Things in Common 99 Legal Foundations: Solid or Not? 100 Governance and Management: Understanding the Difference 101 Investment Beliefs: Theirs or Yours? 102 Investment Processes: Like Wall Street? 103 Should You Manage Like HMC or OTPP? 104 Could You Manage Like HMC or OTPP? 104 CHAPTffiiB Beauty Contest Investing: Not Dead Yet 106 Deja Vu All Over Again 106 Why Beauty Contest Investing Is Ugly 108 Integrative Investment Theory 108 Investment Beliefs 109 Managing from the Inside Out 110 CHAPTER17 Eradicating Beauty Contest Investing: What It WM Take 112 The Ugliness of Beauty Contest Investing 112 A Two Pronged Eradication Strategy 113 What Corporations Must Do 114 What Investing Institutions Must Do 114 A Debilitating Pension Fund Governance Problem 115 Light at the End of the Beauty Contest Tunnel? 117 CHAPTER 18 Hkjh Performance Cultures: Impossible Dream for Pension Funds? 118 Thinking and Acting Like Goldman Sachs 118 New Research Results 119 Specific Governance and Management Challenges 121 In Conclusion 122 XJV CONTENTS CHAPTER 19 How Much Is Good Governance Worth? 124 Governance Quality and Organization Performance Should Be Related 124 A Road Map for the Journey of Discovery 125 The Pension CEO Score and NVA Metrics: The Data 126 Pension CEO Scores Meet NVA Metrics 127 Further Insights 128 The Value of Good Governance 129 PART FOUR Investment Beliefs CHAPTER 20 The 10 Percent Equity Return Huston: Possible Consequences 133 Consequential Miscalculations 133 Why 10 Percent Doesn t Work 134 Painted into an Awkward Corner? 136 Consequences 137 CHAPTER 21 Stocks for the Long Run?... or Not? 139 A Debate with Jeremy Siegel 139 How Investment Theory Became Investment Practice 140 What Is Wrong with These Proofs 141 What if Reality Is Not a Random Walk? 141 Investment Regimes, Dividend Yields, and ERPs 143 The Post Bubble Blues Decade 143 CHAPTER 22 Persistent Investment Regimes or Random Walk ? Even Shakespeare Knew the Answer 145 The Ambachtsheer Siegel Debate Revisited 145 History on Our Side 146 The Investment Returns Story: How to Tell It 147 The Investment Regime Game: Spot Today s Well Before It s Over, and Tomorrow s Before It s Gone on Too Long 148 Regime Spotting versus Random Walk : Which Is More Useful? 149 Contents XV Theory on Our Side, Too 150 Fellow Travelers 150 CHAPTB23 The Fuss about Policy Portfolios: Adrift in Institutional Wonderland 151 Tempest in a Teapot... or Not? 151 Duality in Finance: A Brief History 152 Financial Duality in Pension and Endowment Funds: Building the Conceptual Framework 153 New Insights from the CEM Database 154 Enter Organizational Dysfunction 155 Decisions by Default 156 CHAPTB124 Shifting the Investment Paradigm: A Progress Report 157 The Policy Portfolio Debate Continues 157 A Lens to See the World 158 Why the Old Lens Distorts 158 A Varying Equity Risk Premium 159 A New Lens 160 A Higher Level of Thinking 161 Glimmers of Light 163 CHAPTHI25 Whose Investment Beliefs Do You BeBeve? 164 Writing an Investment Beliefs Statement 164 Inferring Beliefs from Actions 165 Measuring Predictive Ability 166 What about Market Timing and Strategic Asset Allocation? 167 Expected ERP Powerful Predictor 167 Enter Woody Brock 168 In Conclusion 169 CHAPTBI26 Our 60 40 Asset Mix Policy Advice in 1987: Wise or Foolsh? 171 Why Roll the Clock Back 20 Years? 171 Leibowitz s Immunization Campaign 172 Investment Beliefs in 1987 173 Investment Beliefs in 1997 173 The Right Kind of Active Management 174 Wise or Foolish? 175 XVJ CONTENTS CHAPTER 27 But What Does the Turtle Rest On? A Further Exploration of Investment Belefs 177 But What Does the Turtle Rest On? 177 The Efficient Markets Hypothesis: Fact or Fiction? 178 The Three Strikes against the EMH 179 Economists and Operationally Meaningful Theorems 180 The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis 180 The AMH s Five Practical Implications 182 The AMH and Integrative Investment Theory 182 CHAPTER 28 Pnjfess()rMai(JeJandtheltewlnvesuiiemParaoT9m:Ralnlngonthe Parade? 184 Raining on the New Paradigm Parade? 184 The Bases for Malkiel s Skepticism 185 An Alternative Conclusion 186 Winning Evidence 187 The Good Governance Boost 188 We re Both Right 189 CHAPTER 29 The Post Bubble Hues Decade : A Progress Report 180 Another Nail in the IID Coffin 190 Why Non IID Logic Wins 191 Investment Regimes in the Real World 192 What Seems to Actually Be Happening? 193 Some Actual Numbers 194 The Bottom Line 195 PARTHVE Risk in Pension Plans CHAPTER 80 Rethinking Fuming Poicy and Regulation: How ShouM Pension Plans Be Financed? 189 The Devil in the Details 199 How Many Course Correction Tools? 200 Making Financing Decisions: In Whose Interest? 201 Contents XVj An Analytical Framework for Assessing DB Plan Financing Decisions 202 Rational Explanations 203 Four Principles to Fund By 204 CHAPTH131 Funding PoNcy and Investment PoHcy: How ShouM They Be Integrated in DB Pension Plans? 206 Principles to Fund and Invest By 206 What Makes DB Pension Contracts Risky? 208 Should DB Funding Target Calculations Assume That More Risk Means More Return? 208 Is Current Accepted Actuarial Practice Unacceptable? 209 What Is an Acceptable Level of Certainty ? 210 Surplus Ownership 211 Cleaning Up Our Act 212 CHAPTHI32 Resurrecting Ranva: Adjusting Investment Returns lor Risk 218 Resurrecting RANVA 213 RANVA in 1998 214 Measuring RANVA in the Real World 215 The 2000 to 2004 Experience: Lessons 216 Remaining Barriers 217 CHAPTBtSS Adjusting Investment Returns tor Risk: What s the Best Way? 219 Resurrecting RANVA 219 The Cost of Market Volatility Approach 220 The Cost of Insurance Approach with Risk Buffers 222 The Cost of Insurance Approach with Put Options 223 PART SX Measuring Results CHAPTH34 PwhmPlMuiTjanizatJons:lvteasur^ 227 Pension Plan Organizations and Legitimacy 227 Provider of Choice for Which Services? 228 xviii contents Benchmarking Pension Services 229 Costing the Benefit Administration Business 229 The Benefit Administration Cost Equation 231 Build or Buy? 232 CHAPTER 35 Measuring DC Plans as Value Propositions : The New Imperative for Plan Sponsors 233 Silk Purses from Sows Ears 233 Measures of Prudence 234 The Own Company Stock Phenomenon 234 Understanding DC Plan Total Returns 235 DC versus DB Plan Cost Performance 237 Other DC Plan Performance Metrics 239 Value Proposition : Yes or No? 239 CHAPTER 30 Measuring Pension Fund Behavior (1992 to 2004): What Can We Learn? 240 A Well Endowed Database 240 Current International Investment Policy and Implementation Style Differences 241 Ten Year Investment Policy and Implementation Style Trends for U.S. Funds 242 Did Active Management Add Value? 243 The Selection Alphas : Good News and Bad News 244 Is There Also a Payoff from Actively Managing Pension Fund Costs? 247 Two Important Lessons Learned Thus Far 249 PART SEVEN Pensions, Politics, and the Investment Industry CHAPTER 37 Whither Security Analysis? 253 Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble 253 Fortune Trashes Wall Street 254 Is Better Regulation the Answer? 255 Reversing the Financial Food Chain 256 Contents XJX What Is Security Analysis, Anyway? 257 Even Good Security Analysis Needs Context 257 Effective Buy Side Structures 258 In Conclusion 259 CHAPTB138 Pension Funds and Investment Firms: Redefining the Relationship 260 Who Are the Simbas of the Pension Investment Kingdom? 260 The Money Flood 261 A Question of Governance 261 Enter the Anthropologists 262 A Call to Excellence 263 What Do Excellent Pension Funds Look Like? 264 A Supplier Driven Market 265 The Tiny Equity Risk Premium Factor 265 New Paradigm Pension Funds: What Kind of Investment Services Do They Want? 267 New Pension Fund Investment Firm Partnerships 270 Could You Be a New Paradigm Player? 271 CHAPTB39 The New Pension Fund Management Paradigm: Feedback from Financial Analysts 272 Test Driving the New Paradigm 272 Pension Politics and Economics 273 Pension Plan Governance 276 The New Pension Fund Management Paradigm 277 Putting the Paradigm in Practice 278 Performance Measurement 281 Did the Yardsticks Move Forward or Backward? 282 CHAPTFJ140 Reconnecting GAAP and Common Sense: The Cases of Stock Options and Pensions 283 Closing the Information GAAP 283 When Are Employee Stock Options Expenses ? 284 The Common Sense Solution in Action 285 Current Pension Accounting Rules Defy Common Sense, Too 285 Sensible Pension Accounting Rules 287 Common Sense in Action 288 Carpe Diem 289 XX CONTENTS CHAPTER 41 Is Sri Bunk? 290 SRI and Zen 290 What Is Socially Responsible Investing ? 290 A Slippery Slope? 291 Sustainable Investing 292 Assessing the Sustainability of Dividend Growth 293 From Saying to Doing: A Case Study 294 Redefining the SRI Revolution 294 CHAPTER 42 Alpha, Beta, Bafflegab: Investment Theory as Marketing Strategy 296 Giving Alpha and Beta a Rest 296 The Beautiful Art of Language 297 The Myth of Absolute Return Investing 298 Investment Theory with the End in Mind 298 The Critical Role of Fund Governance 299 Pension Revolution 300 CHAPTER 43 The Turner Pensions Commission Report: A Blueprint for Global Pension Reform 302 Pension Wisdom from the United Kingdom 302 Turner s Recommendations 303 The Power of Integrative Thinking 303 Blueprint for Global Pension Reform 304 NPSS Governance, Management, and Investment Options 307 Moving Forward 308 CHAPTER 44 More Pension Wisdom from Europe: The Geneva Report on Pension Reform 309 Eight Hands, Four Economists, and One Point of View 309 Powerful Pension Policy Implications 310 Labor Markets and Human Capital 311 Optimal Risk Sharing 312 Contents XXi Optimal Pension Fund Organizations 313 A Powerful Pension Vision 314 PARTBGHT The Case of PfflS CHAPTK45 PHIS and the Pension Revolution: Active Participant... or Passive Bystander? 317 Alyson Green s New Job 317 History of Workplace Pensions 319 The 1976 to 2005 Period 319 Governance Organizational Issues at PERS 320 Finance Investment Beliefs 321 Pension Contract Risk Issues at PERS 321 Is a Higher Contribution Rate the Answer? 323 More Drastic Action Indicated 324 Spreading the Pain Evenly 326 Is Risk Sharing an Essential Pension Plan Feature? 327 Getting from Here to There 329 Devising an Action Plan 329 CHAPTBttt Advice for Alyson Green: How PHIS Can Join the Pension Revolution 831 Case Discussion Summary from October 25, 2005 331 The PERS Situation 332 The PERS Debate 332 In Conclusion: A Call to Arms 335
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spellingShingle Ambachtsheer, Keith P.
Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis
Pension trusts
Pension trusts Management
Pension trusts Investments
Altersversorgung (DE-588)4001479-4 gnd
subject_GND (DE-588)4001479-4
(DE-588)4078704-7
title Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis
title_auth Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis
title_exact_search Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis
title_full Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis Keith P. Ambachtsheer
title_fullStr Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis Keith P. Ambachtsheer
title_full_unstemmed Pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis Keith P. Ambachtsheer
title_short Pension revolution
title_sort pension revolution a solution to the pensions crisis
title_sub a solution to the pensions crisis
topic Pension trusts
Pension trusts Management
Pension trusts Investments
Altersversorgung (DE-588)4001479-4 gnd
topic_facet Pension trusts
Pension trusts Management
Pension trusts Investments
Altersversorgung
USA
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