Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach
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| 100 | 1 | |a Morecroft, John D. |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)170184048 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Strategic modelling and business dynamics |b a feedback systems approach |c John Morecroft |
| 264 | 1 | |a Chichester |b Wiley |c 2007 | |
| 300 | |a XXXIV, 430 S. |b graph. Darst. |e 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 7 | |a Besluitvorming |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Management |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Simulatiemodellen |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Terugkoppeling |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Wirtschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making |x Simulation methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Business |x Simulation methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social systems |x Simulation methods | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Systems analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Computer simulation | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Modellierung |0 (DE-588)4170297-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Simulation |0 (DE-588)4055072-2 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Entscheidungsfindung |0 (DE-588)4113446-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Unternehmen |0 (DE-588)4061963-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Strategisches Management |0 (DE-588)4124261-0 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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| 856 | 4 | |u http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0740/2007011026-d.html |3 Publisher description | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| DE-BY-TUM_katkey | 1612220 |
| DE-BY-TUM_media_number | 040010078250 |
| _version_ | 1816712723064422400 |
| adam_text | Brief Contents
About the Author xviii
Foreword xix
Preface and Acknowledgments xxi
How to Use This Book xxxii
Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1
Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31
Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 59
Chapter 4 World of Showers 87
Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 105
Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 163
Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 193
Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 257
Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 307
Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 373
Index 419
Contents
About the Author xviii
Foreword xix
Preface and Acknowledgments xxi
How to Use This Book xxxii
Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1
Introduction 1
A New Approach to Modelling 5
The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries 7
Model of a Natural Fishery 10
Simulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery 12
Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery 13
Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland A Thought Experiment 15
A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time 18
Saving Bonavista Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable
Fishery 20
Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time 21
Cunning Fish A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity 23
Preview of the Book and Topics Covered 25
Appendix Archive Materials from World Dynamics 27
References 28
Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31
Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society 31
Event oriented Thinking 32
Feedback Systems Thinking An Illustration 34
A Shift of Mind 37
The Invisibility of Feedback 38
A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams 39
Structure and Behaviour Through Time Feedback Loops and the
Dynamics of a Slow to Respond Shower 41
Processes in a Shower System 43
Simulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops 45
From Events to Dynamics and Feedback Drug related Crime 46
A Feedback View 48
Scope and Boundary of Factors in Drug related Crime 49
An Aside More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types 50
Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams A Summary 51
Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology based Growth
Business 51
Causal Loop Diagrams Basic Tips 54
Picking and Naming Variables 54
Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity 55
Drawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops 56
References 57
Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 59
Asset Stock Accumulation 59
Accumulating a Stock of Faculty at Greenfield University 61
Asset Stocks in a Real Organisation BBC World Service 64
The Coordinating Network 66
Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug related Crime 67
Equation Formulations 71
Drug related Crime 71
Funds Required to Satisfy Addiction 73
Street Price and Price Change 73
Allocation of Police 75
Experiments with the Model of Drug related Crime 76
A Tour of the Model 76
Escalating Crime The Base Case 78
Drilling Down to the Equations 80
Anomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary 81
Benefits of Model Building and Simulation 85
References 85
Chapter 4 World of Showers 87
Getting Started 87
Taking a Shower in World of Showers A 88
Taking a Shower in World of Showers B 91
Redesigning Your World of Showers 92
Re/lections on the World of Showers 94
Metaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and
Harley Davidson 95
Inside World of Showers 98
A Tour of Formulations in the Comfort seeking Loop of the
Hidden Shower 98
Interdependence of Shouvrs Coupling Formulations 101
Simulations of World of Showers B 101
References 103
Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 105
An Overview of the Modelling Process 105
Dynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic
Behaviour 107
Team Model Building 108
Employment and Production Instability Puzzling Performance
Over Time 111
Dialogue About Production Control 114
Thought Experiment: a Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal
Factory 117
Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control 119
Forecasting Shipments Standard Formulations for
Information Smoothing 120
Inventory Control Standard Formulations for Asset Stock
Adjustment 122
Desired Production 123
The Computations Behind Simulation 124
Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics 128
Dialogue About Workforce Management 128
Operating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production 129
Simulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase
in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of
the Workforce 130
Pause for Reflection 134
Equation Formulations in Workforce Management 135
Departure Rate Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion 135
Hiring Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement
and Adjustment 136
Workforce Planning 138
Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to
Cure It 139
The Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand 139
Industry Cyclicality and Business Cycles 140
Policy Formulation and What ifs to Improve Factory Performance 143
Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems 146
A Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft
Systems 146
A Link to Soft Systems Methodology 151
Alternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster 153
Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams 155
Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing 157
References 160
Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 163
Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption A Conceptual
Diffusion Model 164
The Bass Model An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model 166
The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word of mouth 169
The Need to Kick start Adoption 1W
The Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising / 7/
The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word of mouth and
Advertising 173
A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low cost Air Travel
in Europe 174
easyfet A Bright Idea. But Will it Work? 1 5
Visualising the Business: Winning Customers in a Sew Segment 1 ?6
Visualising Retaliation and Rivalry 1 9
Feedback Loops in the easyjet Model 181
Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios 182
Using the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios 185
Simulation, Predictions and Scenarios 18?
Conclusion 187
Appendix: More About the Fliers Model 188
Back to the Future From easyfet to People Express 189
References 191
Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 193
A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment 195
Background to the Case 195
Adopting a Feedback View 196
Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure 198
Review of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the
Market Growth Model 201
Customer Ordering 201
Sales Force Expansion 202
Budgeting 203
Capital Investment 204
Goal Formation 206
An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy 207
Information Available to Decision Makers and Bounded
Rationality 209
Nature of Decision Making and the Decision Process 212
Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth 213
Sales Force Hiring Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation 215
Sales Force Budgeting Revenue Allocation and Information
Smoothing 215
Order Fulfilment Standard Stock Depletion Formulation 216
Customer Ordering 218
Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth 218
Customer Response to Delivery Delay Non linear Graphical
Converter 219
Customers Perception of Delivery Delay Information
Smoothing 221
Order Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation 221
Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment 223
Assessment of Delivery Delay 223
Goal Formation Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static
Goals 224
Capacity Expansion Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 225
Production Capacity Two Stage Stock Accumulation 227
Simulation Experiments 228
Simulation of Sales Growth loop 229
Strength of Reinforcing loop 232
Simulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops 233
Simulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active
The Base Case 237
Redesign of the Investment Policy 241
Top Management Optimism in Capital Investment 242
High and Unyielding Standards A Fixed Operating Goal for
Delivery Delay 244
Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity 247
Conclusion 248
Overview of Policy Structure 248
Growth and Underinvestment at People Express? 251
More Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered 253
Appendix Gain of a Reinforcing Loop 253
References 255
Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 257
Problem Articulation Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price 258
Towards a Dynamic Hypothesis 260
Model Development Process 261
A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision
Making 264
Investment by the Independent Producers 265
Development Costs 266
Policy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment
Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 268
Oil Price and Demand 2 70
The Swing Producer 272
Quota Setting 274
The Opportunists 275
Russian Oil Incorporating the Unforeseen 277
Connecting the Pieces A Feedback Systems View 278
Two Invisible Hands and More 2 79
The Visible Hand of OPEC 281
Webs of Intrigue Inside OPEC s Opulent Bargaining Rooms 282
A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession 284
Using the Model to Generate Scenarios 285
Archive Scenario 1: 10 Year Supply Squeeze Followed by Supply
Glut 286
Archive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World 291
Contemporary Scenario: Asian Boom with Quota Busting,
Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil 294
A Contemporary High Price Scenario How to Push Oil Price
Over $60 per Barrel 299
Devising New Scenarios 301
Effect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand 302
Cartel Quota Bias 302
Opportunists Capacity Bias 302
Oil Price Bias 303
Capex Optimism 303
Time to Build Trust in Russia (only in Oil World 1995) 303
The Oil Producers Microworld 304
References 306
Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 307
Urban Dynamics Growth and Stagnation in Cities 308
Urban Model Conceptualisation 309
Policy Implications of Urban Dynamics 313
Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care 314
Background 315
Medical Workforce Planning Model 3 / 6
Quality of Patient Care 320
Base Run Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce 322
Base Run Quality of Patient Care 323
Intangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive 324
Modelling Junior Doctor Morale 325
Overview of the Complete Model 326
The Formulation of Work life Balance and Flexibility 327
Simulations of the Complete Model 329
Conclusions from the Medical Workforce Study 331
Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy 335
Fisheries Management 335
A Simple Harvested Fishery Balancing Catch and Fish
Regeneration 33 7
A Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment Coping with
a Tipping Point 340
Simulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous
Investment 344
Control and Regulation Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries 345
Formulation of Deployment Policy 346
Stock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour
and Scrap Rate 349
Simulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery the Base Case 349
Policy Design A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density 352
Dynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery 354
Policy Design Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping
of Idle Ships 356
Sustainabtiity, Regulation and Self Restraint 360
Conclusion 360
Appendix Alternative Simulation Approaches 361
From Urban Dynamics to SimCity 362
Discrete event Simulation and System Dynamics 362
Conclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling 369
References 371
Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 373
Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models 374
Models of Business and Social Systems 376
Tests for Building Confidence in Models 377
Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in
Fast moving Consumer Goods 379
Soap Market Overview 380
The Modelling Project 381
Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model 381
Boundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to
a Simple Soap Model 383
A Refined View of the Market 385
Boundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap
Industry Model 387
Managerial Decision making Processes in the Old English Bar
Soap Company 388
Managerial Decision making Processes in Global Personal Care 390
Managerial Decision making Processes in Supermarkets 391
Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model 392
Substitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel 392
Brand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products 393
Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data 398
Tests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model The
Base Case 401
Tests of Learning from Simulation 405
Comparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting
Surprise Behaviour 406
Partial Model Tests to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions 406
Family Member Tests 408
Policy Implication Tests 408
Understanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast moving
Consumer Goods 409
Summary of Confidence Building Tests 410
Conclusion Model Fidelity and Usefulness 413
References 417
Index 419
|
| adam_txt |
Brief Contents
About the Author xviii
Foreword xix
Preface and Acknowledgments xxi
How to Use This Book xxxii
Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1
Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31
Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 59
Chapter 4 World of Showers 87
Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 105
Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 163
Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 193
Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 257
Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 307
Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 373
Index 419
Contents
About the Author xviii
Foreword xix
Preface and Acknowledgments xxi
How to Use This Book xxxii
Chapter 1 The Appeal and Power of Strategic Modelling 1
Introduction 1
A New Approach to Modelling 5
The Puzzling Dynamics of International Fisheries 7
Model of a Natural Fishery 10
Simulated Dynamics of a Natural Fishery 12
Operating a Simple Harvested Fishery 13
Harvesting in Bonavista, Newfoundland A Thought Experiment 15
A Start on Analysing Dynamics and Performance Through Time 18
Saving Bonavista Using Simulation to Devise a Sustainable
Fishery 20
Dynamic Complexity and Performance Through Time 21
Cunning Fish A Scenario with Reduced Dynamic Complexity 23
Preview of the Book and Topics Covered 25
Appendix Archive Materials from World Dynamics 27
References 28
Chapter 2 Introduction to Feedback Systems Thinking 31
Ways of Interpreting Situations in Business and Society 31
Event oriented Thinking 32
Feedback Systems Thinking An Illustration 34
A Shift of Mind 37
The Invisibility of Feedback 38
A Start on Causal Loop Diagrams 39
Structure and Behaviour Through Time Feedback Loops and the
Dynamics of a Slow to Respond Shower 41
Processes in a Shower System' 43
Simulation of a Shower and the Dynamics of Balancing Loops 45
From Events to Dynamics and Feedback Drug related Crime 46
A Feedback View 48
Scope and Boundary of Factors in Drug related Crime 49
An Aside More Practice with Link Polarity and Loop Types 50
Purpose of Causal Loop Diagrams A Summary 51
Feedback Structure and Dynamics of a Technology based Growth
Business 51
Causal Loop Diagrams Basic Tips 54
Picking and Naming Variables 54
Meaning of Arrows and Link Polarity 55
Drawing, Identifying and Naming Feedback Loops 56
References 57
Chapter 3 Modelling Dynamic Systems 59
Asset Stock Accumulation 59
Accumulating a 'Stock' of Faculty at Greenfield University 61
Asset Stocks in a Real Organisation BBC World Service 64
The Coordinating Network 66
Modelling Symbols in Use: A Closer Look at Drug related Crime 67
Equation Formulations 71
Drug related Crime 71
Funds Required to Satisfy Addiction 73
Street Price and Price Change 73
Allocation of Police 75
Experiments with the Model of Drug related Crime 76
A Tour of the Model 76
Escalating Crime The Base Case 78
Drilling Down to the Equations 80
Anomalous Behaviour Over Time and Model Boundary 81
Benefits of Model Building and Simulation 85
References 85
Chapter 4 World of Showers 87
Getting Started 87
Taking a Shower in World of Showers A 88
Taking a Shower in World of Showers B 91
Redesigning Your World of Showers 92
Re/lections on the World of Showers 94
Metaphorical Shower Worlds in GlaxoSmithKline, IBM and
Harley Davidson 95
Inside World of Showers 98
A Tour of Formulations in the Comfort seeking Loop of the
Hidden Shower 98
Interdependence of Shouvrs Coupling Formulations 101
Simulations of World of Showers B 101
References 103
Chapter 5 Cyclical Dynamics and the Process of Model Building 105
An Overview of the Modelling Process 105
Dynamic Hypothesis and Fundamental Modes of Dynamic
Behaviour 107
Team Model Building 108
Employment and Production Instability Puzzling Performance
Over Time 111
Dialogue About Production Control 114
Thought Experiment: a Surprise Demand Increase in an Ideal
Factory 117
Equation Formulations and Computations in Production Control 119
Forecasting Shipments Standard Formulations for
Information Smoothing 120
Inventory Control Standard Formulations for Asset Stock
Adjustment 122
Desired Production 123
The Computations Behind Simulation 124
Modelling Workforce Management and Factory Production Dynamics 128
Dialogue About Workforce Management 128
Operating Constraint Linking Workforce to Production 129
Simulation of the Complete Model: A Surprise Demand Increase
in a Factory Where Production is Constrained by the Size of
the Workforce 130
Pause for Reflection 134
Equation Formulations in Workforce Management 135
Departure Rate Standard Formulation for Stock Depletion 135
Hiring Standard Formulations for Asset Stock Replacement
and Adjustment 136
Workforce Planning 138
Chronic Cyclicality in Employment and Production and How to
Cure It 139
The Curious Effect of Random Variations in Demand 139
Industry Cyclicality and Business Cycles 140
Policy Formulation and What ifs to Improve Factory Performance 143
Modelling for Learning and Soft Systems 146
A Second Pause for Reflection: System Dynamics and Soft
Systems 146
A Link to Soft Systems Methodology 151
Alternative Views of a Radio Broadcaster 153
Appendix 1: Model Communication and Policy Structure Diagrams 155
Appendix 2: The Dynamics of Information Smoothing 157
References 160
Chapter 6 The Dynamics of Growth from Diffusion 163
Stocks and Flows in New Product Adoption A Conceptual
Diffusion Model 164
The Bass Model An Elegant Special Case of a Diffusion Model 166
The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word of mouth 169
The Need to Kick start Adoption 1W
The Complete Bass Diffusion Model With Advertising / 7/
The Dynamics of Product Adoption by Word of mouth and
Advertising 173
A Variation on the Diffusion Model: The Rise of Low cost Air Travel
in Europe 174
easyfet A Bright Idea. But Will it Work? 1"5
Visualising the Business: Winning Customers in a Sew Segment 1 ?6
Visualising Retaliation and Rivalry 1 "9
Feedback Loops in the easyjet Model 181
Strategy and Simulation of Growth Scenarios 182
Using the Fliers Simulator to Create Your Own Scenarios 185
Simulation, Predictions and Scenarios 18?
Conclusion 187
Appendix: More About the Fliers Model 188
Back to the Future From easyfet to People Express 189
References 191
Chapter 7 Managing Business Growth 193
A Conceptual Model of Market Growth and Capital Investment 195
Background to the Case 195
Adopting a Feedback View 196
Formulation Guidelines for Portraying Feedback Structure 198
Review of Operating Policies and Information Flows in the
Market Growth Model 201
Customer Ordering 201
Sales Force Expansion 202
Budgeting 203
Capital Investment 204
Goal Formation 206
An Information Feedback View of Management and Policy 207
Information Available to Decision Makers and Bounded
Rationality 209
Nature of Decision Making and the Decision Process 212
Policy Structure and Formulations for Sales Growth 213
Sales Force Hiring Standard Stock Adjustment Formulation 215
Sales Force Budgeting Revenue Allocation and Information
Smoothing 215
Order Fulfilment Standard Stock Depletion Formulation 216
Customer Ordering 218
Policy Structure and Formulations for Limits to Sales Growth 218
Customer Response to Delivery Delay Non linear Graphical
Converter 219
Customers' Perception of Delivery Delay Information
Smoothing 221
Order Fulfilment and Capacity Utilisation 221
Policy Structure and Formulations for Capital Investment 223
Assessment of Delivery Delay 223
Goal Formation Weighted Average of Adaptive and Static
Goals 224
Capacity Expansion Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 225
Production Capacity Two Stage Stock Accumulation 227
Simulation Experiments 228
Simulation of Sales Growth loop 229
Strength of Reinforcing loop 232
Simulation of Sales Growth and Customer Response Loops 233
Simulation of the Complete Model with all Three Loops Active
The Base Case 237
Redesign of the Investment Policy 241
Top Management Optimism in Capital Investment 242
High and Unyielding Standards A Fixed Operating Goal for
Delivery Delay 244
Policy Design, Growth and Dynamic Complexity 247
Conclusion 248
Overview of Policy Structure 248
Growth and Underinvestment at People Express? 251
More Examples of Growth Strategies that Failed or Faltered 253
Appendix Gain of a Reinforcing Loop 253
References 255
Chapter 8 Industry Dynamics Oil Price and the Global Oil Producers 257
Problem Articulation Puzzling Dynamics of Oil Price 258
Towards a Dynamic Hypothesis 260
Model Development Process 261
A Closer Look at the Stakeholders and Their Investment Decision
Making 264
Investment by the Independent Producers 265
Development Costs 266
Policy Structure and Formulations for Upstream Investment
Fractional Asset Stock Adjustment 268
Oil Price and Demand 2 70
The Swing Producer 272
Quota Setting 274
The Opportunists 275
Russian Oil Incorporating the Unforeseen 277
Connecting the Pieces A Feedback Systems View 278
Two Invisible Hands and More 2 79
The Visible Hand of OPEC 281
Webs of Intrigue Inside OPEC's Opulent Bargaining Rooms 282
A Simple Thought Experiment: Green Mindset and Global Recession 284
Using the Model to Generate Scenarios 285
Archive Scenario 1: 10 Year Supply Squeeze Followed by Supply
Glut 286
Archive Scenario 2: Quota Busting in a Green World 291
Contemporary Scenario: Asian Boom with Quota Busting,
Cautious Upstream Investment and Russian Oil 294
A Contemporary High Price Scenario How to Push Oil Price
Over $60 per Barrel 299
Devising New Scenarios 301
Effect of Global Economy and Environment on Demand 302
Cartel Quota Bias 302
Opportunists' Capacity Bias 302
Oil Price Bias 303
Capex Optimism 303
Time to Build Trust in Russia (only in Oil World 1995) 303
The Oil Producers' Microworld 304
References 306
Chapter 9 Public Sector Applications of Strategic Modelling 307
Urban Dynamics Growth and Stagnation in Cities 308
Urban Model Conceptualisation 309
Policy Implications of Urban Dynamics 313
Medical Workforce Dynamics and Patient Care 314
Background 315
Medical Workforce Planning Model 3 / 6
Quality of Patient Care 320
Base Run Changing Composition of the Medical Workforce 322
Base Run Quality of Patient Care 323
Intangible Effects of the European Working Time Directive 324
Modelling Junior Doctor Morale 325
Overview of the Complete Model 326
The Formulation of Work life Balance and Flexibility 327
Simulations of the Complete Model 329
Conclusions from the Medical Workforce Study 331
Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy 335
Fisheries Management 335
A Simple Harvested Fishery Balancing Catch and Fish
Regeneration 33 7
A Harvested Fishery with Endogenous Investment Coping with
a Tipping Point 340
Simulated Dynamics of a Harvested Fishery with Endogenous
Investment 344
Control and Regulation Policy Design for Sustainable Fisheries 345
Formulation of Deployment Policy 346
Stock and Flow Equations for Ships at Sea, Ships in Harbour
and Scrap Rate 349
Simulated Dynamics of a Regulated Fishery the Base Case 349
Policy Design A Higher Benchmark for Fish Density 352
Dynamics of a Weakly Regulated Fishery 354
Policy Design Lower Exit Barriers Through Quicker Scrapping
of Idle Ships 356
Sustainabtiity, Regulation and Self Restraint 360
Conclusion 360
Appendix Alternative Simulation Approaches 361
From Urban Dynamics to SimCity 362
Discrete event Simulation and System Dynamics 362
Conclusions on Alternative Approaches to Simulation Modelling 369
References 371
Chapter 10 Model Validity, Mental Models and Learning 373
Mental Models, Transitional Objects and Formal Models 374
Models of Business and Social Systems 376
Tests for Building Confidence in Models 377
Model Confidence Building Tests in Action: A Case Study in
Fast moving Consumer Goods 379
Soap Market Overview 380
The Modelling Project 381
Model Structure Tests and the Soap Industry Model 381
Boundary Adequacy and Structure Verification Tests Applied to
a Simple Soap Model 383
A Refined View of the Market 385
Boundary Adequacy and Sector Map of the Complete Soap
Industry Model 387
Managerial Decision making Processes in the Old English Bar
Soap Company 388
Managerial Decision making Processes in Global Personal Care 390
Managerial Decision making Processes in Supermarkets 391
Equation Formulation Tests and the Soap Industry Model 392
Substitution of Bar Soap by Shower Gel 392
Brand Switching Between Competing Bar Soap Products 393
Model Behaviour Tests and Fit to Data 398
Tests of Fit on Simulations of the Soap Industry Model The
Base Case 401
Tests of Learning from Simulation 405
Comparing Simulations with Expectations and Interpreting
Surprise Behaviour 406
Partial Model Tests to Examine Pet Theories and Misconceptions 406
Family Member Tests 408
Policy Implication Tests 408
Understanding Competitive Dynamics in Fast moving
Consumer Goods 409
Summary of Confidence Building Tests 410
Conclusion Model Fidelity and Usefulness 413
References 417
Index 419 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| any_adam_object_boolean | 1 |
| author | Morecroft, John D. |
| author_GND | (DE-588)170184048 |
| author_facet | Morecroft, John D. |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Morecroft, John D. |
| author_variant | j d m jd jdm |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV022947569 |
| callnumber-first | H - Social Science |
| callnumber-label | HD30 |
| callnumber-raw | HD30.23 |
| callnumber-search | HD30.23 |
| callnumber-sort | HD 230.23 |
| callnumber-subject | HD - Industries, Land Use, Labor |
| classification_rvk | QH 444 |
| classification_tum | MAT 624f WIR 540f DAT 780f |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)86109958 (DE-599)BVBBV022947569 |
| dewey-full | 001.4/34 |
| dewey-hundreds | 000 - Computer science, information, general works |
| dewey-ones | 001 - Knowledge |
| dewey-raw | 001.4/34 |
| dewey-search | 001.4/34 |
| dewey-sort | 11.4 234 |
| dewey-tens | 000 - Computer science, information, general works |
| discipline | Allgemeines Informatik Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Allgemeines Informatik Mathematik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV022947569 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T19:00:30Z |
| indexdate | 2024-11-25T17:26:05Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780470012864 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2007011026 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-016152104 |
| oclc_num | 86109958 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-703 DE-384 DE-83 |
| owner_facet | DE-91G DE-BY-TUM DE-703 DE-384 DE-83 |
| physical | XXXIV, 430 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| publishDate | 2007 |
| publishDateSearch | 2007 |
| publishDateSort | 2007 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Morecroft, John D. Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach Besluitvorming gtt Management gtt Simulatiemodellen gtt Terugkoppeling gtt Wirtschaft Decision making Simulation methods Business Simulation methods Social systems Simulation methods Systems analysis Computer simulation Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4170297-9 (DE-588)4055072-2 (DE-588)4113446-1 (DE-588)4061963-1 (DE-588)4124261-0 |
| title | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach |
| title_auth | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach |
| title_exact_search | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach |
| title_full | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach John Morecroft |
| title_fullStr | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach John Morecroft |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach John Morecroft |
| title_short | Strategic modelling and business dynamics |
| title_sort | strategic modelling and business dynamics a feedback systems approach |
| title_sub | a feedback systems approach |
| topic | Besluitvorming gtt Management gtt Simulatiemodellen gtt Terugkoppeling gtt Wirtschaft Decision making Simulation methods Business Simulation methods Social systems Simulation methods Systems analysis Computer simulation Modellierung (DE-588)4170297-9 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Unternehmen (DE-588)4061963-1 gnd Strategisches Management (DE-588)4124261-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Besluitvorming Management Simulatiemodellen Terugkoppeling Wirtschaft Decision making Simulation methods Business Simulation methods Social systems Simulation methods Systems analysis Computer simulation Modellierung Simulation Entscheidungsfindung Unternehmen Strategisches Management |
| url | http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip0713/2007011026.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0740/2007011026-b.html http://www.loc.gov/catdir/enhancements/fy0740/2007011026-d.html http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=016152104&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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