Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005
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| Schriftenreihe: | Population studies
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| 100 | 1 | |a Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Population ageing and its challenges to social policy |b study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |c Ronald Schoenmaeckers and Irina Kotowska |
| 264 | 1 | |a Strasbourg |b Council of Europe Publishing |c [December 2005] | |
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| 490 | 1 | |a Population studies |v No. 50 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Gesellschaft | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Politik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Statistik | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Age distribution (Demography) |x Social aspects |z Europe | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Age distribution (Demography) |z Europe |v Statistics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Older people |x Services for |x Government policy |z Europe | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population aging |z Europe | |
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| adam_text | TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SYNOPSIS: DISASTER SCENARIO OR SUCCESS STORY?
(RONALD C. SCHOENMAECKERS) 11 LIST OF FIGURES 1. EVOLUTION OF THE
POPULATION AGED 60 AND MORE (%) 1950-2050 12 2. PEOPLE (%) AGED 60+ AND
80+ IN THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE MEMBER STATES, 2000 13 3. SCENARIOS
UNDERLYING THE SIMULATION EXERCISES 14 4. EFFECTS OF A CHANGING AGE
STRUCTURE IN EMPLOYMENT, 2000, 2025, AND 2050 16 5. EFFECTS OF INCREASED
EMPLOYMENT BY SCENARIO, COMPARISON SITUATION 2000 AND 2050, FOR THREE
COUNTRIES (AUSTRIA, HUNGARY, POLAND) 17 6. SCENARIOS UNDERLYING
ASSUMPTIONS FOR INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY 19 7. SHOWN COMBINATIONS
SCENARIOS EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY 19 8. INCREASES IN THE PROPORTION
AGED 65 AND MORE, SUB-GROUPS HIGH, MIDDLE, AND LOW 20 9. RELATIVE
INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA FROM SCENARIO NO CHANGE AND SCENARIO BB
21 10. INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA IN REAL TERMS FROM SCENARIOS *AA AND
BB 1 22 11. AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH 23 12. AGE
PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH WEIGHTED BY POPULATION NUMBERS:
SITUATION IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 24 IT. POPULATION AGEING AND ITS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS (RONALD C. SCHOENMAECKERS) 27
PREFACE 27 1. INTRODUCTION 28 1.1. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 28
1.2. SOURCES AND USED DATA SETS 30 1.3. OUTLINE OF THE STUDY 32 2.
POPULATION AGEING: A GLOBAL PHENOMENON 33 POPULATION AGEING AND ITS
CHALLENGES TO SOCIAL POLICY 2.1. CHANGES AT WORLD LEVEL AND THE SPECIFIC
POSITION OF EUROPE 33 2.2. CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE IN EUROPE,
PERIODS 1950-2000 AND 2000-2050 38 2.3. DIFFERENCES IN THE PROPORTIONS
OF OLDER PERSONS IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE 39 3. THE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING .... 48 3.1.
EVOLUTION OF THE DEPENDENCY RATIO 48 3.2. A MORE REALISTIC OUTLOOK BY
USING EMPLOYMENT RATES 49 3.3. THE (IN)COMPATIBILITY OF FUTURE
GDP-LEVELS WITH INCREASINGLY OLDER POPULATION 55 3.4. THE UNPOPULARITY
OF SOME SUGGESTED CHANGES: SOME RESULTS OF THE DIALOG PROJECT 59 4. TWO
SPECIFIC SOCIETAL CHALLENGES: LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AND HEALTH
EXPENDITURES 72 4.1. LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AMONG OLDER PEOPLE AT THE TURN
OF THE 20TH CENTURY 73 4.2. THE AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH
EXPENDITURES AND THEIR IMPLIED COST 77 5. SOME FINAL COMMENTS AND
CONSIDERATIONS 90 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION
AGED 60 AND OVER AND OF THE MEDIAN AGE IN THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND JAPAN
42 FIGURE 2.2: CHANGES IN THE AGE PYRAMIDS OF THE EUROPEAN POPU- LATION,
FROM 1950 TO 2000 AND FROM 2000 TO 2050 43 FIGURE 2.3: PERCENTAGE OF
PERSONS AGED 60 AND OVER AND OF PERSONS AGED 80 AND OVER IN THE MEMBER
STATES OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE, BY SUB-GROUP, 2000 44 FIGURE 2.4: LIFE
EXPECTANCY AT AGE 60 AND AT AGE 80 IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE COUNCIL
OF EUROPE, BY SUB- GROUP, 2000 45 FIGURE 2.5: PROSPECTED PERCENTAGES OF
PEOPLE AGED 60 AND OVER AND AGED 80 AND OVER, BY SUB-GROUP, PERIOD 2000-
2050 46 FIGURE 3.1: EVOLUTION OF THE PROPORTIONS OF PEOPLE IN THE POPU-
LATION AGED 0-19 YEARS, AGED 20-64 YEARS, AND AGED 65 YEARS AND OVER AND
OF THE DEPENDENCY RATIO 61 FIGURE 3.2: PERCENTAGES ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE,
BY 5-YEAR AGE INTERVAL AND BY SEX, INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY ESTIMATES AND
MEDIAN VALUE BETWEEN COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2000 62 TABLE OF CONTENTS FIGURE
3.3: PERCENTAGES ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE AND PERCENTAGES EMPLOYED BY 5-YEAR
AGE INTERVAL AND AVERAGE FOR AGE GROUP 50-64, FOR MEN AND FOR WOMEN, BY
SUB- GROUP, CIRCA 2000 63 FIGURE 3.4: CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2050. PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION PER 5-YEAR AGE GROUP
AND PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION AT WORKING AGE IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 64
FIGURE 3.5: CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE BY 5-YEAR AGE INTERVAL BETWEEN
2000 AND 2050 AND PERCENTAGES EMPLOYED AGE GROUP 20-64 AS OBSERVED IN
2000 AND AS ESTIMATED IN 2025 AND 2050 ACCORDING TO SCENARIO 65 FIGURE
3.6: RELATIVE INCREASES OF GDP PER CAPITA IN 2025 AND 2050 WITH RESPECT
TO OBSERVED 2000-ESTIMATES, ACCORDING TO SCENARIOS CONCERNING INCREASES
IN EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY, BY SUB-GROUP 66 FIGURE 3.7: TREND OF GDP
PER CAPITA DURING THE YEARS 1975 THROUGH 1998, BY SUB-GROUP 68 FIGURE
3.8: OBSERVED (1975-2000) AND ESTIMATED (2000 AND BEYOND) VALUES OF GDP
PER CAPITA FOR SUB-GROUP HIGH 69 FIGURE 3.9: EXPECTED AGE OF RETIREMENT
(%), SELECTED NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2003 70 FIGURE 3.10: PREFERRED
AGE OF RETIREMENT (%), SELECTED NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2003 70
FIGURE 4.1: LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF PEOPLE 65 AND OVER. MARITAL STATUS
(IN %), BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP AND BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 82 FIGURE
4.2: PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE LIVING ALONE, BY SEX AND BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP,
BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 83 FIGURE 4.3: PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS IN
INSTITUTIONS FOR RETIRED OR OLDER PERSONS, BY SEX AND BY 5-YEAR AGE
GROUP, BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 84 FIGURE 4.4: AGE PROFILE FOR
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH CARE: AVERAGE EXPENDITURE PER HEAD
EXPRESSED AS SHARE (%) OF GDP PER CAPITA, SELECTED GROUP OF COUNTRIES,
CIRCA 2000 85 FIGURE 4.5: AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH
WEIGHTED BY NUMBER OF PERSONS PER AGE INTERVAL 86 FIGURE 4.6: GDP PER
CAPITA IN 2000 AND RELATIVE INCREASE IN PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE, FOR
UNADJUSTED AND ADJUSTED VALUES (RIGHT SCALE), BY SUB-GROUP, YEARS 2000,
2025, AND 2050 87 POPULATION AGEING AND ITS CHALLENGES TO SOCIAL POLICY
FIGURE 4.7: PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH CARE EXPRESSED AS SHARE OF GDP
R BY SUB-GROUP, YEARS 1990 AND 2000 88 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1: MEDIAN
AGE AND PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE AGED 60, AND ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE, IN THE
WORLD, EUROPE, AND JAPAN, FOR SELECTED YEARS 47 TABLE 2.2: CRUDE DEATH
AND CRUDE BIRTH RATES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, AROUND
1750 AND 1800, AND IN YEARS 1950 AND 2000 47 TABLE 3.1: DEPENDENCY RATIO
AND CORRESPONDING NUMBER OF PERSONS AT WORKING AGE PER 100 PERSONS AT
NON WORKING AGE, BY SUB-GROUP, FOR SELECTED YEARS 71 TABLE 3.2:
SCENARIOS REGARDING INCREASED EMPLOYMENT RATES AND UNDERLYING
ASSUMPTIONS 71 TABLE 3.3: PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN TOTAL POPULATION AT
WORKING- AGE IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 AND RELATIVE CHANGE, BY SUB-GROUP
72 TABLE 3.4: 2000-ESTIMATES FOR LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY BY SUB-GROUP 72
TABLE 4.1: PERCENTAGE OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS WITH AN OLDER MEMBER (AT
LEAST ONE), BY REGION, CIRCA 2000 89 TABLE 4.2: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF MEN
AND WOMEN AGED 65 AND MORE IN RETIREMENT HOMES, BY REGION, YEARS 2000,
2025, 2050 89 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 95 REFERENCES 97 ANNEXES 103 III. OLDER
WORKERS IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL POLICIES (IRENA E, KOTOWSKA) 117
1. INTRODUCTION 117 2. DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE LABOUR MARKET 120 2.1. THE
SITUATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY 121 2.2. PROJECTED
CHANGES IN THE WORKING AGE POPULATION 125 2.3. POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF THE
PROJECTED CHANGES IN THE AGE COMPOSITION 132 3. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR
FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES OF PERSONS AGED 55 AND OVER 133 3.1. OVERALL
TRENDS IN THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE POPU- LATION 133 8 TABLE OF
CONTENTS 3.2. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF PERSONS AGED
55-64 IN THE YEARS 1992-2003 137 3.3. POSSIBLE DETERMINANTS OF DECLINING
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF PERSONS AGED 55 AND OVER 140 4. OLDER WORKERS IN
THE LABOUR MARKET - FROM THE FRAGMENTED TO INTEGRATED POLICY TOWARDS
OLDER WORKERS 142 4.1. THE LISBON STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE 142 4.2. REFORMS
OF OLD-AGE PENSION SYSTEMS 144 4.3. THE INTEGRATED POLICY TOWARDS OLDER
WORKERS 149 5. OLDER WORKERS IN THE LABOUR MARKET- INDIVIDUAL AND
EXPERTS PERSPECTIVES 152 5.1. PEOPLE S OPINIONS ON TRANSITION TO
RETIREMENT 153 5.2. EXPERTS VIEW ON ACTIVE AGEING 159 6. CONCLUDING
REMARKS 161 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: THE PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS AGED
55-64 IN THE WORKING- AGE POPULATION (16-64 YEARS) 122 FIGURE 2: ELDERLY
DEPENDENCY RATIO 124 FIGURE 3: PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES WITH DECLINING
WORKING AGE POPULATION, COUNCIL OF EUROPE COUNTRIES 126 FIGURE 4:
WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 127 FIGURE
5: POPULATION 55-64 YEARS BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 128 FIGURE 6:
POPULATION AGED 65 YEARS AND MORE BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 131 FIGURE 7:
ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 131 FIGURE 8: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN SOUTHERN EUROPE .... 135 FIGURE 9: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN NORTHERN EUROPE .... 135 FIGURE 10: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN CENTRAL EUROPE 136 FIGURE 11: CHANGES IN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF FEMALES AGED 55-64, 1992-2003, EU-15 137 FIGURE 12:
CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF MALES AGED 55-64, 1992-2003, EU-15 138
FIGURE 13: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF OLDER WORKERS, 2003, EU-25 139 FIGURE
14: PREFERRED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY AGE OF RESPONDENT, RESPONDENTS AGED
20-64 155 FIGURE 15: EXPECTED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY AGE OF RESPONDENT,
RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 FIGURE 16: PREFERRED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY
EDUCATION, RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 FIGURE 17: EXPECTED AGE OF
RETIREMENT BY EDUCATION, RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 LIST OF TABLES TABLE
1: LABOUR FORCE AGEING IN HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW GROUPS OF COUNTRIES,
2000-2050 129 TABLE 2: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND
LOW GROUPS OF COUNTRIES, 2000-2050 130 TABLE 3: STANDARD AGE OF
RETIREMENT AND ITS CHANGES IN THE EU-25+2 SINCE 1999 147 TABLE 4:
EXPECTATIONS AND PREFERENCES ABOUT RETIREMENT AGE BY SEX OF RESPONDENT
(RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64) 154 TABLE 5: FIRST PREFERENCES ON GOVERNMENTAL
MEASURES TO ENSURE OLD-AGE BENEFITS IN THE FUTURE (RESPONDENTS AGED
20-64 YEARS) 158 BIBLIOGRAPHY 165 THE AUTHORS 169 TITLES IN THE SAME
COLLECTION 171 10
|
| adam_txt |
TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SYNOPSIS: DISASTER SCENARIO OR SUCCESS STORY?
(RONALD C. SCHOENMAECKERS) 11 LIST OF FIGURES 1. EVOLUTION OF THE
POPULATION AGED 60 AND MORE (%) 1950-2050 12 2. PEOPLE (%) AGED 60+ AND
80+ IN THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE MEMBER STATES, 2000 13 3. SCENARIOS
UNDERLYING THE SIMULATION EXERCISES 14 4. EFFECTS OF A CHANGING AGE
STRUCTURE IN EMPLOYMENT, 2000, 2025, AND 2050 16 5. EFFECTS OF INCREASED
EMPLOYMENT BY SCENARIO, COMPARISON SITUATION 2000 AND 2050, FOR THREE
COUNTRIES (AUSTRIA, HUNGARY, POLAND) 17 6. SCENARIOS UNDERLYING
ASSUMPTIONS FOR INCREASED PRODUCTIVITY 19 7. SHOWN COMBINATIONS
SCENARIOS EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY 19 8. INCREASES IN THE PROPORTION
AGED 65 AND MORE, SUB-GROUPS HIGH, MIDDLE, AND LOW 20 9. RELATIVE
INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA FROM SCENARIO 'NO CHANGE' AND SCENARIO 'BB'
21 10. INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA IN REAL TERMS FROM SCENARIOS *AA' AND
'BB 1 22 11. AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH 23 12. AGE
PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH WEIGHTED BY POPULATION NUMBERS:
SITUATION IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 24 IT. POPULATION AGEING AND ITS
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS (RONALD C. SCHOENMAECKERS) 27
PREFACE 27 1. INTRODUCTION 28 1.1. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 28
1.2. SOURCES AND USED DATA SETS 30 1.3. OUTLINE OF THE STUDY 32 2.
POPULATION AGEING: A GLOBAL PHENOMENON 33 POPULATION AGEING AND ITS
CHALLENGES TO SOCIAL POLICY 2.1. CHANGES AT WORLD LEVEL AND THE SPECIFIC
POSITION OF EUROPE 33 2.2. CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE IN EUROPE,
PERIODS 1950-2000 AND 2000-2050 38 2.3. DIFFERENCES IN THE PROPORTIONS
OF OLDER PERSONS IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE 39 3. THE
ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING . 48 3.1.
EVOLUTION OF THE DEPENDENCY RATIO 48 3.2. A MORE REALISTIC OUTLOOK BY
USING EMPLOYMENT RATES 49 3.3. THE (IN)COMPATIBILITY OF FUTURE
GDP-LEVELS WITH INCREASINGLY OLDER POPULATION 55 3.4. THE UNPOPULARITY
OF SOME SUGGESTED CHANGES: SOME RESULTS OF THE DIALOG PROJECT 59 4. TWO
SPECIFIC SOCIETAL CHALLENGES: LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AND HEALTH
EXPENDITURES 72 4.1. LIVING ARRANGEMENTS AMONG OLDER PEOPLE AT THE TURN
OF THE 20TH CENTURY 73 4.2. THE AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH
EXPENDITURES AND THEIR IMPLIED COST 77 5. SOME FINAL COMMENTS AND
CONSIDERATIONS 90 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 2.1: PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION
AGED 60 AND OVER AND OF THE MEDIAN AGE IN THE WORLD, EUROPE, AND JAPAN
42 FIGURE 2.2: CHANGES IN THE AGE PYRAMIDS OF THE EUROPEAN POPU- LATION,
FROM 1950 TO 2000 AND FROM 2000 TO 2050 43 FIGURE 2.3: PERCENTAGE OF
PERSONS AGED 60 AND OVER AND OF PERSONS AGED 80 AND OVER IN THE MEMBER
STATES OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE, BY SUB-GROUP, 2000 44 FIGURE 2.4: LIFE
EXPECTANCY AT AGE 60 AND AT AGE 80 IN THE MEMBER STATES OF THE COUNCIL
OF EUROPE, BY SUB- GROUP, 2000 45 FIGURE 2.5: PROSPECTED PERCENTAGES OF
PEOPLE AGED 60 AND OVER AND AGED 80 AND OVER, BY SUB-GROUP, PERIOD 2000-
2050 46 FIGURE 3.1: EVOLUTION OF THE PROPORTIONS OF PEOPLE IN THE POPU-
LATION AGED 0-19 YEARS, AGED 20-64 YEARS, AND AGED 65 YEARS AND OVER AND
OF THE DEPENDENCY RATIO 61 FIGURE 3.2: PERCENTAGES ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE,
BY 5-YEAR AGE INTERVAL AND BY SEX, INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY ESTIMATES AND
MEDIAN VALUE BETWEEN COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2000 62 TABLE OF CONTENTS FIGURE
3.3: PERCENTAGES ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE AND PERCENTAGES EMPLOYED BY 5-YEAR
AGE INTERVAL AND AVERAGE FOR AGE GROUP 50-64, FOR MEN AND FOR WOMEN, BY
SUB- GROUP, CIRCA 2000 63 FIGURE 3.4: CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 2050. PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION PER 5-YEAR AGE GROUP
AND PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION AT WORKING AGE IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 64
FIGURE 3.5: CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE BY 5-YEAR AGE INTERVAL BETWEEN
2000 AND 2050 AND PERCENTAGES EMPLOYED AGE GROUP 20-64 AS OBSERVED IN
2000 AND AS ESTIMATED IN 2025 AND 2050 ACCORDING TO SCENARIO 65 FIGURE
3.6: RELATIVE INCREASES OF GDP PER CAPITA IN 2025 AND 2050 WITH RESPECT
TO OBSERVED 2000-ESTIMATES, ACCORDING TO SCENARIOS CONCERNING INCREASES
IN EMPLOYMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY, BY SUB-GROUP 66 FIGURE 3.7: TREND OF GDP
PER CAPITA DURING THE YEARS 1975 THROUGH 1998, BY SUB-GROUP 68 FIGURE
3.8: OBSERVED (1975-2000) AND ESTIMATED (2000 AND BEYOND) VALUES OF GDP
PER CAPITA FOR SUB-GROUP HIGH 69 FIGURE 3.9: EXPECTED AGE OF RETIREMENT
(%), SELECTED NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2003 70 FIGURE 3.10: PREFERRED
AGE OF RETIREMENT (%), SELECTED NUMBER OF COUNTRIES, CIRCA 2003 70
FIGURE 4.1: LIVING ARRANGEMENTS OF PEOPLE 65 AND OVER. MARITAL STATUS
(IN %), BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP AND BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 82 FIGURE
4.2: PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE LIVING ALONE, BY SEX AND BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUP,
BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 83 FIGURE 4.3: PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS IN
INSTITUTIONS FOR RETIRED OR OLDER PERSONS, BY SEX AND BY 5-YEAR AGE
GROUP, BY EUROPEAN REGION, CIRCA 2000 84 FIGURE 4.4: AGE PROFILE FOR
PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH CARE: AVERAGE EXPENDITURE PER HEAD
EXPRESSED AS SHARE (%) OF GDP PER CAPITA, SELECTED GROUP OF COUNTRIES,
CIRCA 2000 85 FIGURE 4.5: AGE PROFILE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH
WEIGHTED BY NUMBER OF PERSONS PER AGE INTERVAL 86 FIGURE 4.6: GDP PER
CAPITA IN 2000 AND RELATIVE INCREASE IN PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE, FOR
UNADJUSTED AND ADJUSTED VALUES (RIGHT SCALE), BY SUB-GROUP, YEARS 2000,
2025, AND 2050 87 POPULATION AGEING AND ITS CHALLENGES TO SOCIAL POLICY
FIGURE 4.7: PUBLIC EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH CARE EXPRESSED AS SHARE OF GDP
R BY SUB-GROUP, YEARS 1990 AND 2000 88 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2.1: MEDIAN
AGE AND PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE AGED 60, AND ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE, IN THE
WORLD, EUROPE, AND JAPAN, FOR SELECTED YEARS 47 TABLE 2.2: CRUDE DEATH
AND CRUDE BIRTH RATES IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, AROUND
1750 AND 1800, AND IN YEARS 1950 AND 2000 47 TABLE 3.1: DEPENDENCY RATIO
AND CORRESPONDING NUMBER OF PERSONS AT WORKING AGE PER 100 PERSONS AT
NON WORKING AGE, BY SUB-GROUP, FOR SELECTED YEARS 71 TABLE 3.2:
SCENARIOS REGARDING INCREASED EMPLOYMENT RATES AND UNDERLYING
ASSUMPTIONS 71 TABLE 3.3: PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE IN TOTAL POPULATION AT
WORKING- AGE IN 2000, 2025, AND 2050 AND RELATIVE CHANGE, BY SUB-GROUP
72 TABLE 3.4: 2000-ESTIMATES FOR LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY BY SUB-GROUP 72
TABLE 4.1: PERCENTAGE OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS WITH AN OLDER MEMBER (AT
LEAST ONE), BY REGION, CIRCA 2000 89 TABLE 4.2: ESTIMATED NUMBER OF MEN
AND WOMEN AGED 65 AND MORE IN RETIREMENT HOMES, BY REGION, YEARS 2000,
2025, 2050 89 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 95 REFERENCES 97 ANNEXES 103 III. OLDER
WORKERS IN THE LABOUR MARKET AND SOCIAL POLICIES (IRENA E, KOTOWSKA) 117
1. INTRODUCTION 117 2. DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE LABOUR MARKET 120 2.1. THE
SITUATION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 21ST CENTURY 121 2.2. PROJECTED
CHANGES IN THE WORKING AGE POPULATION 125 2.3. POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF THE
PROJECTED CHANGES IN THE AGE COMPOSITION 132 3. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR
FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES OF PERSONS AGED 55 AND OVER 133 3.1. OVERALL
TRENDS IN THE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE POPU- LATION 133 8 TABLE OF
CONTENTS 3.2. CHANGES IN THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF PERSONS AGED
55-64 IN THE YEARS 1992-2003 137 3.3. POSSIBLE DETERMINANTS OF DECLINING
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF PERSONS AGED 55 AND OVER 140 4. OLDER WORKERS IN
THE LABOUR MARKET - FROM THE FRAGMENTED TO INTEGRATED POLICY TOWARDS
OLDER WORKERS 142 4.1. THE LISBON STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE 142 4.2. REFORMS
OF OLD-AGE PENSION SYSTEMS 144 4.3. THE INTEGRATED POLICY TOWARDS OLDER
WORKERS 149 5. OLDER WORKERS IN THE LABOUR MARKET- INDIVIDUAL AND
EXPERTS' PERSPECTIVES 152 5.1. PEOPLE'S OPINIONS ON TRANSITION TO
RETIREMENT 153 5.2. EXPERTS' VIEW ON ACTIVE AGEING 159 6. CONCLUDING
REMARKS 161 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: THE PERCENTAGE OF PERSONS AGED
55-64 IN THE WORKING- AGE POPULATION (16-64 YEARS) 122 FIGURE 2: ELDERLY
DEPENDENCY RATIO 124 FIGURE 3: PERCENTAGE OF COUNTRIES WITH DECLINING
WORKING AGE POPULATION, COUNCIL OF EUROPE COUNTRIES 126 FIGURE 4:
WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 127 FIGURE
5: POPULATION 55-64 YEARS BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 128 FIGURE 6:
POPULATION AGED 65 YEARS AND MORE BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 131 FIGURE 7:
ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIO BY REGIONS OF THE EU-25 131 FIGURE 8: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN SOUTHERN EUROPE . 135 FIGURE 9: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN NORTHERN EUROPE . 135 FIGURE 10: FEMALE
LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION IN CENTRAL EUROPE 136 FIGURE 11: CHANGES IN
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF FEMALES AGED 55-64, 1992-2003, EU-15 137 FIGURE 12:
CHANGES IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF MALES AGED 55-64, 1992-2003, EU-15 138
FIGURE 13: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF OLDER WORKERS, 2003, EU-25 139 FIGURE
14: PREFERRED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY AGE OF RESPONDENT, RESPONDENTS AGED
20-64 155 FIGURE 15: EXPECTED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY AGE OF RESPONDENT,
RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 FIGURE 16: PREFERRED AGE OF RETIREMENT BY
EDUCATION, RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 FIGURE 17: EXPECTED AGE OF
RETIREMENT BY EDUCATION, RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64 156 LIST OF TABLES TABLE
1: LABOUR FORCE AGEING IN HIGH, MIDDLE AND LOW GROUPS OF COUNTRIES,
2000-2050 129 TABLE 2: ELDERLY DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE HIGH, MIDDLE AND
LOW GROUPS OF COUNTRIES, 2000-2050 130 TABLE 3: STANDARD AGE OF
RETIREMENT AND ITS CHANGES IN THE EU-25+2 SINCE 1999 147 TABLE 4:
EXPECTATIONS AND PREFERENCES ABOUT RETIREMENT AGE BY SEX OF RESPONDENT
(RESPONDENTS AGED 20-64) 154 TABLE 5: FIRST PREFERENCES ON GOVERNMENTAL
MEASURES TO ENSURE OLD-AGE BENEFITS IN THE FUTURE (RESPONDENTS AGED
20-64 YEARS) 158 BIBLIOGRAPHY 165 THE AUTHORS 169 TITLES IN THE SAME
COLLECTION 171 10 |
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| author | Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C. Kotowska, Irena E. |
| author_GND | (DE-588)170967158 |
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| author_role | aut aut |
| author_sort | Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C. |
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| classification_rvk | MS 2700 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)254754481 (DE-599)BVBBV021500331 |
| discipline | Soziologie |
| discipline_str_mv | Soziologie |
| era | 2000-2050 |
| era_facet | 2000-2050 |
| format | Book |
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| genre | (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 2005 Straßburg gnd-content Kongress - Europäische Union - Straßburg <2005> - Bevölkerungsentwicklung - Sozialpolitik - Altersstruktur |
| genre_facet | Konferenzschrift 2005 Straßburg Kongress - Europäische Union - Straßburg <2005> - Bevölkerungsentwicklung - Sozialpolitik - Altersstruktur |
| geographic | Europa Europe Population Forecasting |
| geographic_facet | Europa Europe Population Forecasting |
| id | DE-604.BV021500331 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-02T14:15:17Z |
| indexdate | 2024-09-27T16:12:33Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9789287159014 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-014717062 |
| oclc_num | 254754481 |
| open_access_boolean | |
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| owner_facet | DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 173 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2005 |
| publishDateSearch | 2005 |
| publishDateSort | 2005 |
| publisher | Council of Europe Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series | Population studies |
| series2 | Population studies |
| spellingShingle | Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C. Kotowska, Irena E. Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 Population studies Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung / Alternde Bevölkerung / Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung / Bevölkerungsprognose / Soziale Sicherung / Sozialreform / EU-Staaten Gesellschaft Politik Statistik Age distribution (Demography) Social aspects Europe Age distribution (Demography) Europe Statistics Older people Services for Government policy Europe Population aging Europe Alter (DE-588)4001446-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)5098525-5 (DE-588)4001446-0 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |
| title_auth | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |
| title_exact_search | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |
| title_full | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 Ronald Schoenmaeckers and Irina Kotowska |
| title_fullStr | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 Ronald Schoenmaeckers and Irina Kotowska |
| title_full_unstemmed | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 Ronald Schoenmaeckers and Irina Kotowska |
| title_short | Population ageing and its challenges to social policy |
| title_sort | population ageing and its challenges to social policy study prepared for the european population conference 2005 |
| title_sub | study prepared for the European Population Conference 2005 |
| topic | Europäische Union (DE-588)5098525-5 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung / Alternde Bevölkerung / Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung / Bevölkerungsprognose / Soziale Sicherung / Sozialreform / EU-Staaten Gesellschaft Politik Statistik Age distribution (Demography) Social aspects Europe Age distribution (Demography) Europe Statistics Older people Services for Government policy Europe Population aging Europe Alter (DE-588)4001446-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Europäische Union Bevölkerungsentwicklung / Alternde Bevölkerung / Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung / Bevölkerungsprognose / Soziale Sicherung / Sozialreform / EU-Staaten Gesellschaft Politik Statistik Age distribution (Demography) Social aspects Europe Age distribution (Demography) Europe Statistics Older people Services for Government policy Europe Population aging Europe Alter Europa Europe Population Forecasting Konferenzschrift 2005 Straßburg Kongress - Europäische Union - Straßburg <2005> - Bevölkerungsentwicklung - Sozialpolitik - Altersstruktur |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014717062&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV035919010 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT schoenmaeckersronaldc populationageinganditschallengestosocialpolicystudypreparedfortheeuropeanpopulationconference2005 AT kotowskairenae populationageinganditschallengestosocialpolicystudypreparedfortheeuropeanpopulationconference2005 |