International finance
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| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Basingstoke [u.a.]
Palgrave Macmillan
2006
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| Ausgabe: | 3. ed. |
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| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Pilbeam, Keith |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a International finance |c Keith Pilbeam |
| 250 | |a 3. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Basingstoke [u.a.] |b Palgrave Macmillan |c 2006 | |
| 300 | |a XXVI, 497 S. |b graph. Darst. | ||
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
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| 650 | 7 | |a Internationale financiën |2 gtt | |
| 650 | 4 | |a International finance | |
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| adam_text | Brief Contents
Part 1 The Balance of Payments and Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy
1 The Foreign Exchange Market 3
2 The Balance of Payments 27
3 Elasticity and Absorption Approaches to the Balance of Payments 52
4 Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy 69
5 The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments 98
Part 2 Exchange Rate Determination: Theory, Evidence and Policy
6 Purchasing Power Parity and Floating Exchange Rate Experience 125
7 Modern Models of Exchange Rate Determination 147
8 The Portfolio Balance Model 178
9 Empirical Evidence on Exchange Rates 202
10 Fixed, Floating and Managed Exchange Rates 235
Part 3 The Postwar International Monetary System
11 The International Monetary System 261
12 The Eurocurrency and Eurobond Markets 304
13 Currency Derivatives: Futures, Options and Swaps 323
14 International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination 358
15 The International Debt Crisis 377
16 Economic and Monetary Union in Europe 409
17 Currency Crises and the East Asian Financial Crisis 450
Contents
List of Tables xiv
List of Figures xvii
List of Boxes xix
Acknowledgements xx
Introduction xxi
PART 1 THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY
IN AN OPEN ECONOMY
1 The Foreign Exchange Market 3
1.1 Introduction 3
1.2 Exchange rate definitions 5
1.3 Characteristics and participants of the foreign exchange market 6
1.4 Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market 8
1.5 The spot and forward exchange rates 9
1.6. Nominal, real and effective exchange rates 9
1.7 A simple model of the determination of the spot exchange rate 13
1.8 Alternative exchange rate regimes 17
1.9 The determination of the forward exchange rate 20
1.10 The interaction of hedgers, arbitrageurs and speculators 24
1.11 Conclusions 25
2 The Balance of Payments 27
2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 What is the balance of payments? 28
2.3 Collection, reporting and presentation of the balance of payments
statistics 28
2.4 Balance of payments accounting and accounts 29
2.5 An overview of the sub accounts in the balance of payments 30
2.6 Recording of transactions in the balance of payments 32
2.7 What is meant by a balance of payments surplus or deficit? 34
2.8 Alternative concepts of surplus and deficit 34
2.9 Do the record United States current account deficits matter? 36
2.10 Some open economy identities 42
2.11 Open economy multipliers 45
2.12 Conclusions 50
3 Elasticity and Absorption Approaches to the Balance of Payments 52
3.1 Introduction 52
3.2 The elasticity approach to the balance of payments 53
vil
viii O Contents
3.3 Empirical evidence on import and export demand elasticities 56
3.4 The pass through effect of a depreciation or appreciation 60
3.5 The absorption approach 61
3.6 The effects of a devaluation on national income 62
3.7 The effects of a devaluation on direct absorption 63
3.8 A synthesis of the elasticity and absorption approaches 66
3.9 Conclusions 66
4 Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy 69
4.1 Introduction 69
4.2 The problem of internal and external balance 70
4.3 The Mundell Fleming model 72
4.4 Derivation of the IS schedule for an open economy 73
4.5 Derivation of the LM schedule for an open economy 75
4.6 Derivation of the BP schedule for an open economy 76
4.7 Equilibrium of the model 79
4.8 Factors shifting the IS LM BP schedules 79
4.9 Internal and external balance 81
4.10 Internal and external balance under fixed exchange rates 84
4.11 Internal and external balance under floating exchange rates 85
4.12 A small open economy with perfect capital mobility 87
4.13 The principle of effective market classification 92
4.14 Limitations of the Mundell Fleming model 95
4.15 Conclusions 96
5 The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments 98
5.1 Introduction 98
5.2 A simple monetary model 99
5.3 The monetarist concept of a balance of payments disequilibrium 104
5.4 The effects of a devaluation 105
5.5 A monetary exchange rate equation 106
5.6 A money supply expansion under fixed exchange rates 108
5.7 A money supply expansion under floating exchange rates 110
5.8 The effects of an increase in income under fixed exchange rates 112
5.9 The effects of an increase in income under floating exchange rates 114
5.10 An increase in foreign prices under fixed exchange rates 115
5.11 An increase in foreign prices under floating exchange rates 116
5.12 Implications of the monetary approach 118
5.13 Empirical evidence on the monetary approach 119
5.14 Criticisms of the monetary approach 120
5.15 Conclusions 121
PART 2 EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: THEORY, EVIDENCE
AND POLICY
6 Purchasing Power Parity and Floating Exchange Rate Experience 125
6.1 Introduction 125
6.2 Purchasing power parity theory and the law of one price 126
Contents O ix
6.3 Absolute and relative PPP 126
6.4 A generalized version of PPP 128
6.5 Measurement problems in testing for PPP 129
6.6 Empirical evidence on PPP 130
6.7 Summary of empirical evidence on PPP 135
6.8 Explaining the poor performance of purchasing power parity
theory 139
6.9 The Balassa Samuelson model 141
6.10 Per capita income levels, the relative sizes of economies and the
importance of PPP estimates 143
6.11 Conclusions 145
7 Modern Models of Exchange Rate Determination 147
7.1 Introduction 147
7.2 Asset prices 148
7.3 Uncovered interest rate parity 149
7.4 The monetary models of exchange rate determination 152
7.5 The flexible price monetary model 152
7.6 The Dornbusch sticky price monetarist model 154
1.1 A simple explanation of the Dornbusch model 155
7.8 A formal explanation of the Dornbusch model 157
7.9 Derivation of the goods market equilibrium schedule 158
7.10 Derivation of the money market equilibrium schedule 159
7.11 A money supply expansion and exchange rate overshooting 162
7.12 Importance of the sticky price monetary model 163
7.13 The Frankel real interest rate differential model 164
7.14 Implications of the monetary views of exchange rate determination 166
7.15 Allowing for imperfect substitutability between domestic and
foreign bonds 169
7.16 A synthesis portfolio balance model 172
7.17 The importance of the portfolio balance model 174
7.18 Conclusions 175
8 The Portfolio Balance Model 178
8.1 Introduction 178
8.2 The concept of a risk premium 179
8.3 Different types of risk 181
8.4 A portfolio balance model 183
8.5 Derivation of the asset demand functions 186
8.6 Equilibrium of the model 187
8.7 The effects of a foreign exchange operation 188
8.8 The effects of an open market operation 189
8.9 The effects of a sterilized foreign exchange operation 190
8.10 A comparison of an FXO, OMO and SFXO 192
8.11 The dynamics of the model 193
8.12 The effects of a change in risk perceptions 194
8.13 Money versus bond financed fiscal expansion 195
8.14 The risk premium, imperfect and perfect substitutability 198
8.15 Conclusions 200
x O Contents
9 Empirical Evidence on Exchange Rates 202
9.1 Introduction 202
9.2 What is an efficient market? 203
9.3 Exchange market efficiency tests 204
9.4 Alternative tests of the efficient market hypothesis 209
9.5 Summary of findings on exchange market efficiency 210
9.6 Empirical tests of exchange rate models 211
9.7 Exchange rate models: a forecasting analysis 213
9.8 Explaining the poor results of exchange rate models 216
9.9 The news approach to modelling exchange rates 218
9.10 The longer run predictability of exchange rate movements 221
9.11 Modelling exchange rate expectations 225
9.12 Empirical tests of different expectations mechanisms 227
9.13 Alternative approaches to modelling exchange rates: the role of
chartists and fundamentalists 228
9.14 Conclusions 230
10 Fixed, Floating and Managed Exchange Rates 235
10.1 Introduction 235
10.2 The case for fixed exchange rates 236
10.3 The case for floating exchange rates 238
10.4 The modern evaluation of fixed and flexible exchange rate
regimes 242
10.5 Specification of the objective function 242
10.6 The model 243
10.7 Determining equilibrium 245
10.8 Money demand shock 247
10.9 Aggregate demand shock 248
10.10 Aggregate supply shock 249
10.11 Managed floating 252
10.12 Conclusions 256
PART 3 THE POSTWAR INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM
11 The International Monetary System 261
11.1 Introduction 261
11.2 The Bretton Woods system 263
11.3 Features of the system 263
11.4 A brief history of the Bretton Woods system 265
11.5 Why did the Bretton Woods system break down? 268
11.6 The post Bretton Woods era 273
11.7 The Jamaica Conference of 1976 277
11.8 The Snake and the EMS 278
11.9 The second oil shock 279
11.10 The dazzling dollar, 1980 85 279
11.11 From Plaza to Louvre and beyond 280
11.12 Currency turmoil and crises post 1990 281
11.13 The present exchange rate system 289
Contents O xi
11.14 The bipolar view of the international monetary system:
which exchange rate regime is best? 289
11.15 Reform of the international monetary system 295
11.16 The Williamson target zone proposal 295
11.17 The McKinnon global monetary target proposal 295
11.18 The Tobin foreign exchange tax proposal 296
11.19 Reform of the international financial architecture 297
11.20 Conclusions 300
12 The Eurocurrency and Eurobond Markets 304
12.1 Introduction 304
12.2 Participants in the Eurocurrency and Eurobond markets 306
12.3 The origins and development of the Eurocurrency market 306
12.4 The characteristics of the Eurodollar market 308
12.5 The competitive advantage of Eurobanks 309
12.6 The coexistence of domestic and Eurobanking 310
12.7 The creation of Eurodollar deposits and loans 310
12.8 The pros and cons of the Eurocurrency markets 312
12.9 Euromarkets and government regulation and policy 313
12.10 The international capital market and the Eurobond market 314
12.11 The origins and development of the Eurobond market 314
12.12 Typical features of a Eurobond 315
12.13 Control and regulation of the Eurobond market 316
12.14 The management of a Eurobond issue 318
12.15 Innovations in the Eurobond market 320
12.16 Conclusions 320
13 Currency Derivatives: Futures, Options and Swaps 323
13.1 Introduction 323
13.2 The growth of derivative markets 324
13.3 Exchange traded futures and options contracts 325
13.4 Currency futures and currency forwards 326
13.5 The use of currency futures for hedging purposes 328
13.6 The symmetry of profit/losses on futures/forward positions 330
13.7 The pricing of currency futures 331
13.8 Currency options 332
13.9 A currency option versus a forward contract for hedging 335
13.10 A currency option versus a forward for speculating 336
13.11 The pricing of currency options 339
13.12 Intrinsic value and time value 340
13.13 The distribution of the option premium between time and
intrinsic value 341
13.14 The Garman and Kohlhagen option pricing formula 346
13.15 A numerical example of the Garman Kohlhagen formula 347
13.16 Problems with the currency option pricing formula 349
13.17 The over the counter market in options 350
13.18 The swaps market 350
13.19 Potential currency swap scenarios 351
13.20 A currency swap agreement 352
xii O Contents
13.21 Distinguishing characteristics of the swap market from the
forward and futures markets 354
13.22 Conclusions 355
14 International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination 358
14.1 Introduction 358
14.2 What is meant by international policy coordination? 359
14.3 Why does the need for international policy coordination arise? 360
14.4 The benefits from international policy coordination 361
14.5 A game theory demonstration of the gains from coordination 366
14.6 Other potential benefits from coordination 367
14.7 The potential for coordination to make countries worse off 368
14.8 Estimates of the benefits and losses from international policy
coordination 369
14.9 Problems and obstacles to international policy coordination 372
14.10 Conclusions 374
15 The International Debt Crisis 377
15.1 Introduction 377
15.2 The low and middle income developing countries 378
15.3 Characteristics of typical middle income developing countries 379
15.4 The economics of developing country borrowing 380
15.5 Different types of capital inflows into developing countries 381
15.6 Measures of indebtedness 382
15.7 Background and origins of the debt crisis 384
15.8 The emergence of the debt crisis 385
15.9 The Mexican moratorium 387
15.10 The dimensions of the debt crisis 388
15.11 A supply and demand framework for analysing the debt crisis 389
15.12 The economics of default 391
15.13 The role and viewpoints of the actors in the debt crisis 393
15.14 The management of the debt crisis 395
15.15 An overall evaluation of the debt crisis management 404
15.16 Post Brady Plan crises in three of the countries 406
15.17 Conclusions 406
16 Economic and Monetary Union in Europe 409
16.1 Introduction 409
16.2 The Snake in the Tunnel 410
16.3 The background to the European Monetary System 411
16.4 The Exchange Rate Mechanism 412
16.5 The European Currency Unit and its role as an indicator of
divergence 413
16.6 Financing facilities and monetary cooperation 415
16.7 An assessment of the European Monetary System 416
16.8 The EMS as an anti inflation zone 418
16.9 Intervention policy in the EMS 422
16.10 The economic performance of ERM and non ERM countries 423
16.11 What is meant by economic and monetary union? 423
Contents O xiii
16.12 Benefits of Economic and Monetary Union 425
16.13 Costs of Economic and Monetary Union 427
16.14 A history of the road to European Monetary Union 430
16.15 The Maastricht Treaty 433
16.16 An evaluation of the Maastricht criteria 434
16.17 The Stability and Growth Pact 436
16.18 The changeover to the single currency 436
16.19 The performance of the euro in the foreign exchange market 438
16.20 The eurosystem 438
16.21 The Exchange Rate Mechanism II 442
16.22 The accession countries and EMU 444
16.23 Conclusions 447
17 Currency Crises and the East Asian Financial Crisis 450
17.1 Introduction 450
17.2 First generation models of currency crises 451
17.3 Second generation models of currency crises 455
17.4 Third generation and other models of currency and financial crises 457
17.5 The run up to the Asian crisis 460
17.6 The macroeconomic fundamentals 460
17.7 The role of external factors in the crisis 466
17.8 The role of the financial system 467
17.9 The immediate causes of the crisis 469
17.10 An analysis of the crisis 473
17.11 The IMF handling of the crisis 475
17.12 An evaluation of the IMF programmes 477
17.13 The crisis and post crisis performance of the economies 478
17.14 Early warning systems 479
17.15 Conclusions 481
Bibliography 485
Author Index 489
Subject Index 492
|
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| spellingShingle | Pilbeam, Keith International finance Finances internationales Internationaal monetair systeem gtt Internationale financiën gtt International finance Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd |
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| title | International finance |
| title_auth | International finance |
| title_exact_search | International finance |
| title_full | International finance Keith Pilbeam |
| title_fullStr | International finance Keith Pilbeam |
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| title_short | International finance |
| title_sort | international finance |
| topic | Finances internationales Internationaal monetair systeem gtt Internationale financiën gtt International finance Weltwirtschaft (DE-588)4065468-0 gnd Internationaler Kapitalmarkt (DE-588)4027402-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Finances internationales Internationaal monetair systeem Internationale financiën International finance Weltwirtschaft Internationaler Kapitalmarkt Lehrbuch |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=014615579&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pilbeamkeith internationalfinance |