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245 1 0 |a Fossil fuels in a changing climate  |b impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation  |c Ulrich Bartsch ... 
250 |a 1. publ. 
264 1 |a Oxford [u.a.]  |b Oxford Univ. Press  |c 2000 
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650 4 |a Energiepolitik - Rohstoffpolitik - Umweltpolitik - Demographie 
650 4 |a Erde - Fossiler Brennstoff - Produktion - Verbrauch - Statistik - Prognose 
650 4 |a Fossiler Brennstoff - Emission - Klimaänderung - Entwicklungsländer 
650 7 |a Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik  |2 idszbz 
650 7 |a Internationale Politik - Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik  |2 idszbz 
650 7 |a Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik  |2 idszbz 
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650 4 |a Fossil fuels  |x Environmental aspects 
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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text Titel: Fossil fuels in a changing climate Autor: Bartsch, Ulrich Jahr: 2000 CONTENTS List of Tables ix List of Figures xiii Acronyms for World Regions in the Study xvii Abbreviations xix Orders of Magnitude xxiii Acknowledgements xxv 1 Introduction PART I The Setting 2 The Kyoto Protocol 9 2.1 Introduction 9 2.2 The Road to Kyoto 9 2.3 Bubbles, Baskets and Banking 16 2.4 Sinks: Land-use Change and Forestry (LUCF) 21 2.5 Mechanisms for International Transfer 24 3 Oil Production Capacity and Supplies 3.1 Introduction 34 3.2 Capacity versus Reserves 34 3.3 Time Lags and Shocks 37 3.4 Producers Policies 38 3.5 Geological Potential 39 3.6 Prospects of Capacity Expansion by Country 40 3.7 A Base-Case Projection of Oil Production Capacity 45 3.8 Conclusions 48 4 Methodology and Business-as-Usual Projections 50 4.1 Introduction 50 4.2 The Oxford Model for Climate Policy Analysis (CLIMOX) 50 4.3 Regions and Economic Sectors 52 4.4 Economic Growth 53 VI FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 4.5 Fossil Fuel Production and Demand 54 4.6 Emission Projections 61 Annex List of Countries Included in the Regions of the Model 62 PART II Methodology and Assumptions 5 The Oxford Model for Climate Policy Analysis (CLIMOX) 69 5.1 Introduction 69 5.2 The GTAP Equilibrium Model 69 5.3 Adjusting GTAP 74 5.4 The CLIMOX Equations 76 5.5 Dynamic Macro-Economic Structure 79 5.6 Alternative Energy 87 5.7 Policy Simulations: Taxes and Flexibility Mechanisms in the CLIMOX Model 89 6 Technological Change and Energy Intensity 94 6.1 Introduction 94 6.2 Technological Progress 95 6.3 Energy Efficiency Across Regions in a Macro-economic Framework 108 6.4 Conclusions 121 7 Coal and its Future 123 7.1 Introduction 123 7.2 Coal Availability and Supply 123 7.3 The Demand for Coal 130 7.4 Conclusions 133 8 Natural Gas 135 8.1 Introduction 135 8.2 Natural Gas Availability and Supply 135 8.3 The Demand for Gas 143 8.4 Conclusions 147 9 Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions 148 9.1 Introduction 148 9.2 Carbon Dioxide Emissions 149 CONTENTS Vll 9.3 Methane Emissions 150 9.4 Energy Emission Projections 156 PART III Policy Scenarios and Simulation Results 10 The Kyoto Scenario: Description 161 10.1 Introduction 161 10.2 Greenhouse Gas Policies of the Annex I Regions 164 10.3 Summary of the Model Assumptions 184 11 The Most Likely Kyoto Scenario: Implications 186 11.1 Introduction 186 11.2 Emission Reductions 187 11.3 Impacts on the Fossil Fuel Markets 194 11.4 Sectoral Demand for Fossil Fuels 204 11.5 Oil Revenues 211 11.6 Concluding Remarks 212 12 The Impact of Specific Policy Instruments 214 12.1 Introduction 214 12.2 National Carbon Taxes or Emission Quotas 214 12.3 Energy-Taxes 218 12.4 International Emissions Trading 221 12.5 Energy Prices 223 12.6 Concluding Remarks 224 13 The Global Compromise Scenario 226 13.1 Introduction 226 13.2 The Global Compromise Regime 226 13.3 Emission Reductions, Emission Trading and the Hot Air Problem 234 Annex Detailed Analysis of the Global Compromise Regime 246 14 The Implications of a New Climate Change Agreement (the Global Compromise Scenario) 266 14.1 Introduction 266 14.2 Energy Prices 267 14.3 Impacts on the Fossil Fuel Markets 268 14.4 Sectoral Demand for Fossil Fuels 273 Vlll FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 14.5 Oil Revenues 277 14.6 Concluding Remarks 279 15 Sensitivity Analysis 280 15.1 Introduction 280 15.2 Inflexible Oil Supplies 281 15.3 High Level of Oil Availability 283 15.4 High Economic Growth Scenario 285 15.5 Changes in Elasticity Parameters 287 15.6 Unrestricted Hot Air and Surplus Permit Supply 290 15.7 Concluding Remarks 295 16 Comparison with Other Studies 297 16.1 Introduction 297 16.2 Modelling Approaches 298 16.3 Emission Abatement Costs 300 16.4 Modelling Effects of Climate Policies on Oil Markets 306 17 Summary and Conclusions 311 17.1 Methodology 311 17.2 Scenarios for Policy Analysis 312 17.3 Emission Reductions 314 17.4 Fossil Fuel Markets 315 17.5 Oil Revenues and Instrument Choice 317 17.6 Emission Trading and Excess Permits 319 17.7 A New Global Climate Change Agreement 319 17.8 Non-energy Emission Abatement and Sinks 320 17.9 Policy Implications 321 Appendices 327 Index 353 LIST OF TABLES 2.1 The Kyoto Protocol Commitments 17 2.2 Anthropogenic GHG Emissions of Annex I Regions in 1995 19 2.3 Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions from and Removals by Land-use Change and Forestry. By Region. 1995 22 3.1 Oil Supplies 1995 and Capacity Projections 2010-2020 46 4.1 Production of Conventional and Non-conventional Oil by Region, BaU, 1995-2020 55 4.2 Production of Hydrogen by Region, BaU, 1995-2020 56 4.3 Oil Demand, BaU, 1995-2020 57 4.4 Production of Coal, BaU, 1995-2020 59 4.5 Demand for Coal, BaU, 1995-2020 59 4.6 Production of Gas, BaU, 1995-2020 60 4.7 Demand for Gas, BaU, 1995-2020 61 5.1 Percentage of Capital Payments Reallocated to Rent 76 5.2 Substitution Elasticities in Production 78 5.3 Income Elasticities of Demand 80 5.4 Total Fertility Rates (TFR) and Population 82 5.5 Productivity Increase in Per Cent per Year 84 5.6 Productivity Index £ *. 1995=1 85 5.7 Average Annual Economic Growth Rates 85 5.8 Annual Growth Rates of Savings and Government Expenditure 86 5.9 Production of Hydrogen by Region, BaU, 1995-2020 88 6.1 Comparison of Coal and Gas Power Generation Systems under European Conditions 98 6.2 Regional Shares of Hydroelectric Production in 1996 100 6.3 Mitigation Costs of Stationary Energy Sources 102 6.4 Life-cycle GHG Emissions and Costs for Alternative Fuel Cars 103 6.5 Mitigation Costs for Alternative Fuel Vehicles 105 X FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 7.1 Proven Reserves of Coal at end 1998 124 7.2 World Coal Production. 1995-2020 125 7.3 Indicative Export Costs for Steam Coal. 1997 129 7.4 World Coal Consumption. 1995-2020 131 7.5 Coal Consumption in the OECD by Main Markets. 1973 and 1996. Percentage Shares 132 7.6 Cost and Climate Impact of Coal for Electricity Generation Compared with Other Sources 133 8.1 Proven Reserves of Natural Gas. 1979-1999 136 8.2 Natural Gas Production. 1995-2020 138 8.3 Comparative Unit Costs of Natural Gas delivered to Western Europe 141 8.4 Average Gas and Crude Oil Prices. 1990-1998 142 8.5 World Natural Gas Consumption. 1995-2020 143 8.6 Natural Gas Consumption by main End-use Markets in 1996 144 9.1 BaU Energy Emissions (Combustion CO, + Fugitive Fuel CH4) 156 10.1 The Kyoto Scenario Energy Emissions Targets (Assigned Amounts) 162 10.2 Emissions Permit Cartel and Banking. 2010-2020. EIT Region 163 10.3 Japan s Primary Energy Supply. 1973-2010 170 10.4 Climate Change Indicators. ROO Region 179 11.1 The EU Cap on the Use of Flexibility in 2010 192 11.2 Impact of Kyoto on Fossil Fuels. Reductions from BaU 195 11.3 Changes in the Demand for Fossil Fuels by Sectors 208 11.4 Oil Revenues. Change from 1995 in Per Cent of 1995, and Change from BaU in Per Cent of BaU 211 13.1 Assigned Energy Emission Amounts (Including Banking). 2020 233 13.2 Surplus Permits, Permit Sales and Domestic Abatement Levels. 2020 237 13.3 Average Annual Resource Transfers from Emission Trading in the Second Commitment Period. 2018-2022 241 LIST OF TABLES XI Annex A. 13.1 Projection of Energy Emissions under the Kyoto Scenario. 2020 252 A. 13.2 Development Indicators. Human Development Index and GDP per Capita. 1995 253 A. 13.3 Modelling Targets for CO, Combustion Emissions 258 A. 13.4 The World in 1995. Population, GDP and Energy Emissions 260 A. 13.5 Preference Scores 262 A. 13.6 Assigned Energy Emission Amounts (Without Banking). 2020 263 A. 13.7 Assigned Amounts for 2020 (from Table 13.1) in Percentage Changes from the Projected 2010 Global Compromise Level 268 14.1 Changes in the Demand for Oil Products by Sectors 275 14.2 Changes in the Demand for Coal by Sectors 275 14.3 Changes in the Demand for Gas by Sectors 277 14.4 Oil Revenue Index, BaU and Kyoto. 1995 = 1 278 15.1 Changes in Oil Revenues Between BaU, Kyoto, and Sensitivity Scenarios. 2010-2020 283 15.2 Oil Capacity Projections. High Oil Supply. 1995-2020 284 15.3 Average Growth of GDP. Per Cent Per Year 285 16.1 Models Analysing Kyoto Implementation Scenarios 301 16.2 Comparison of Simulated Prices for Internationally Traded Emission Permits from Different Models. 2010 304 16.3 Comparison of Oil Market Results, CLIMOX and OWEM, BaU and different Kyoto implementation scenarios, 2010 309 17.1 Summary of Results: Emissions and Oil Production, all Scenarios. 1995 and 2020 323 17.2 Summary of Results: Non-conventional Oil Production, Oil Prices and Oil Revenues, all Scenarios. 1995 and 2020 324 Xll FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE Appendices A 1.1 Annex I Anthropogenic GHG Emissions. 1995 and 1990 328 A1.2 Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions by FCCC Sector. 1995 329 A1.3 Annex I CO2 Fuel Combustion Emissions by FCCC Sector. 1995 330 A1.4 Global CO2 Energy Emissions by Fuel Type. 1995 331 A 1.5 Annex I Anthropogenic Methane (CHJ Emissions. 1995 332 A 1.6 Annex I Anthropogenic. Nitrous Oxide (N20) Emissions. 1995 333 A 1.7 Annex I Anthropogenic CO2 LUCF Emissions (negative = sink) and Bunker Fuel Emissions. 1995 334 A1.8 Methane Abatement Potentials. 2010 and 2020 335 A2.1 Energy CO2 and Fugitive-Fuel CH4 Emissions, BaU and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios. 1995-2020. 338 A2.2 Oil Production, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. Million Barrels per Day Oil Equivalent 340 A2.3 Oil Demand, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. 342 A2.4 Coal Production, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. 344 A2.5 Coal Demand, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. 345 A2.6 Gas Production, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. 346 A2.7 Gas Demand, BaU 1995-2020, and Changes from BaU, Different Scenarios, 2020. 347 A2.8 Oil Demand by Main Economic Sectors, BaU, 1995-2020. 348 A2.9 Coal Demand by Main Economic Sectors, BaU, 1995-2020. 348 A2.10 Gas Demand by Main Economic Sectors, BaU, 1995-2020. 349 A2.11 Oil Revenues, Indices 1995 = 1 for BaU 2010-2020, and Different Scenarios, 2020 350 LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Early Crediting and Kyoto Banking 30 4.1 Fossil Fuel Production, BaU, 1995 2020 57 4.2 Fossil Fuel Price Indices, BaU, 1995 = 1 58 5.1 Nested CES Structure of Production in CLIMOX 77 6.1 Estimated Confidence Intervals for the Unit Costs of Emission Cuts by Transport Technology 107 6.2 Total Use of Fossil Fuel per Capita by Region 112 6.3 Emissions per Use of Fossil Fuels 112 6.4 Energy Sources in Production of Electricity by Region 113 6.5 Distribution of Energy Demand by Sector in Annex I Countries 114 6.6 Average Prices of Fossil Fuels by Energy Carrier and Region 115 6.7 Input of Fossil Energy and Labour per Unit of PPP-based GDP by Region 116 6.8 Relationship between the Use of Fossil Energy per Capita and National Level of Income by Region - Regression of a Kuznets Curve 119 6.9 Input of Energy and Labour Required to Produce 1 Million US$ GDP and Relative Prices of Labour and Energy by Region 120 9.1 Yearly Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion. 1750-2020 148 9.2 Methane Emissions by Sector and Source. 1995 and 2020 151 9.3 Regional Projections for Methane Rice Cultivation Emissions. 1995-2020 152 9.4 Regional Projections for Methane Livestock Emissions. 1995-2020 152 9.5 Regional Projections for Methane Solid Waste Disposal (Landfills). 1995-2020 153 XIV FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 9.6 Regional Projections for Fugitive Methane Emissions from Coal Mining and Handling. 1995-2020 155 9.7 Regional Projections for Fugitive Methane Emissions from Gas Production and Distribution. 1995-2020 155 9.8 BaU Energy Emission Projections. 1980-2020 157 11.1 Energy CO9 and Fugitive-Fuel CH4 Emissions, BaU and Kyoto. By Region 187 11.2 Energy CO2 and Fugitive-Fuel CH4 Emissions, BaU and Kyoto. By Region 187 11.3 Cost Curves for Emission Reductions, 10-30 Per Cent below BaU. 2010 189 11.4 Energy CO2 and Fugitive-fuel CH+ Emissions. Reductions in 2010. Per Cent below BaU 190 11.5 Domestic Abatement in Per Cent of Total Required Reductions 193 11.6 Differences between Coal, Refined Oil, and Gas Prices in Per Cent of Gas Prices, per Energy Unit and per Unit of Carbon. 1995 196 11.7 Oil Production, BaU and Kyoto 198 11.8 Fossil Fuel Prices, Changes from BaU. Per Cent of BaU. 2010 and 2020 199 11.9 Hydrogen Production, BaU and Kyoto 201 11.10 Coal Consumption, Total and Annex 1, BaU and Kyoto 202 11.11 Gas Use. Total and Annex 1, BaU and Kyoto 203 11.12 Demand for Refined Oil in Electricity Generation, BaU and Kyoto 205 11.13 Demand for Refined Oil in Transport and Households, BaU and Kyoto 207 11.14 Demand for Coal in Electricity Generation, BaU and Kyoto 208 11.15 Demand for Gas in Electricity and Distribution, BaU and Kyoto 210 12.1 Domestic Price of Emission Permits. By Region 215 12.2 ROE Domestic Price of Emission Permits 216 12.3 Oil Production, BaU and National Quotas 217 12.4 Non-conventional Oil Production, Policy Instruments 217 12.5 Oil Price Index, 1995 = 1 218 12.6 Oil Production, BaU and Energy Taxes 219 LIST OF FIGURES XV 12.7 Oil Production, BaU and Energy Taxes, Hydrogen Exempt 221 12.8 Price for International Emission Permits 222 12.9 Oil Production, BaU and International Trading 222 12.10 Energy Price Increase in 2020. Per Cent over BaU 223 13.1 Distribution Shares. Per Capita, Grandfathering, and Global Preference Scores 234 13.2 Energy Emissions (Annex I). BaU, Global Compromise (GC), and Assigned Amounts (AA) 236 13.3 Energy Emissions (non-Annex I). BaU. Global Compromise (GC), and Assigned Amounts (AA) 236 13.4 Actual and Required 2020 Energy Emission Reductions. Surplus Permit Supply. Per Cent of BaU Emissions 238 13.5 Global Emission Permit Transfers 239 13.6 Global Compromise. Average Annual Resource Transfers from Emission Trading. 2018-2022 242 13.7 Regional Changes in 2020 Real Income from BaU 244 Annex A. 13.1 Percentages of Membership at Different Levels of the Human Development Index (HDI). G77 and UN 247 A. 13.2 Percentages of Membership at Different HDI Levels. GDG, G77 and OECD 252 A. 13.3 Global CO, Energy Emissions 255 14.1 Price Index for Average Unit of Energy. By Region. 1995 = 1 267 14.2 Price Index for Average Unit of Energy. By Region. 1995 = 1 267 14.3 Oil Production, BaU and Global Compromise 269 14.4 Hydrogen Production, BaU and Global Compromise 269 14.5 Oil Price Index, BaL and Global Compromise. 1995 = 1 270 14.6 Coal Consumption, Total and Annex 1. BaU and Global Compromise 271 14.7 Gas Lse, Total and Annex 1. BaU and Global Compromise 272 14.8 Demand for Refined Oil in Electricity Generation. BaU and Global Compromise 274 XVI FOSSIL FUELS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE 14.9 Oil Revenue Index, BaU and Global Compromise, 1995 = 1 278 15.1 Oil Production, Inflexible Supply, BaU and Kyoto 282 15.2 Oil Production, High Oil Supply, BaU and Kyoto 284 15.3 Oil Production, High Economic Growth, BaU and Kyoto 286 15.4 Oil Price Index, High Economic Growth, BaU and Kyoto. 1995 = 1 286 15.5 Oil Price Index, BaU and Kyoto, No Cartel. 1995 = 1 292 15.6 Oil Price Index, BaU and Global Compromise, No Cartel and Strong Cartel. 1995 = 1 293 15.7 Oil Production, BaU and Global Compromise, Strong Cartel 294 16.1 Comparison of Simulated Prices for Internationally Traded Emission Permits from Different Models. 2010 305
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spellingShingle Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
Anthropogene Klimaänderung
Climatic changesGovernment policy
Entwicklungsländer
Fossil fuelsEnvironmental aspects
Fossiler Brennstoff
Kyoto-Protokoll
Kyoto-Protokoll swd
Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik
Energiepolitik - Rohstoffpolitik - Umweltpolitik - Demographie
Erde - Fossiler Brennstoff - Produktion - Verbrauch - Statistik - Prognose
Fossiler Brennstoff - Emission - Klimaänderung - Entwicklungsländer
Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik idszbz
Internationale Politik - Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik idszbz
Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik idszbz
Umweltpolitik - Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Internationale Politik idszbz
Umweltpolitik swd
Klimaänderung
Politik
Umwelt
Climatic changes Government policy
Fossil fuels Environmental aspects
title Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
title_auth Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
title_exact_search Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
title_full Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation Ulrich Bartsch ...
title_fullStr Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation Ulrich Bartsch ...
title_full_unstemmed Fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation Ulrich Bartsch ...
title_short Fossil fuels in a changing climate
title_sort fossil fuels in a changing climate impacts of the kyoto protocol and developing country participation
title_sub impacts of the Kyoto Protocol and developing country participation
topic Anthropogene Klimaänderung
Climatic changesGovernment policy
Entwicklungsländer
Fossil fuelsEnvironmental aspects
Fossiler Brennstoff
Kyoto-Protokoll
Kyoto-Protokoll swd
Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik
Energiepolitik - Rohstoffpolitik - Umweltpolitik - Demographie
Erde - Fossiler Brennstoff - Produktion - Verbrauch - Statistik - Prognose
Fossiler Brennstoff - Emission - Klimaänderung - Entwicklungsländer
Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik idszbz
Internationale Politik - Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik idszbz
Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik idszbz
Umweltpolitik - Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Internationale Politik idszbz
Umweltpolitik swd
Klimaänderung
Politik
Umwelt
Climatic changes Government policy
Fossil fuels Environmental aspects
topic_facet Anthropogene Klimaänderung
Climatic changesGovernment policy
Entwicklungsländer
Fossil fuelsEnvironmental aspects
Fossiler Brennstoff
Kyoto-Protokoll
Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik
Energiepolitik - Rohstoffpolitik - Umweltpolitik - Demographie
Erde - Fossiler Brennstoff - Produktion - Verbrauch - Statistik - Prognose
Fossiler Brennstoff - Emission - Klimaänderung - Entwicklungsländer
Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik
Internationale Politik - Fossiler Brennstoff - Klimaänderung - Umweltpolitik
Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Umweltpolitik - Internationale Politik
Umweltpolitik - Klimaänderung - Fossiler Brennstoff - Internationale Politik
Umweltpolitik
Klimaänderung
Politik
Umwelt
Climatic changes Government policy
Fossil fuels Environmental aspects
url http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=009022433&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
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