Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting
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| Format: | Buch |
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| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
Ballinger
1983
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Energy resources in an uncertain future |b coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting |c M. A. Adelman ... |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. |b Ballinger |c 1983 | |
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| 650 | 7 | |a Ressources énergétiques - États-Unis |2 ram | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uranio - EE.UU | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Coal |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Natural gas |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Petroleum |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Power resources |z United States | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uranium |z United States | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
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| _version_ | 1823052121688244224 |
| adam_text | Titel: Energy resources in an uncertain future
Autor: Adelman, Morris Albert
Jahr: 1983
CONTENTS
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvii
Executive Summary xxi
PART I INTRODUCTION OF ESTIMA TION OF RESER VES
AND RESOURCES
-M. A. Adelman and John C. Houghton 1
Introduction 1
Chapter 1
User Costs and Optimal Depletion of Reserves 3
The Theory of Depletion of Limited Resources 3
Implications of the Theory of Exhaustion 7
Reformulation of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources 7
The Underlying Concept of Reserves 10
The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate 10
Chapter 2
Reserves versus Resources 13
The Resource Base 13
Reserves 15
vii
Chapter 3
Economic Issues for the Mining Industry
17
Price and Marginal Cost 17
Supply Curves 18
Exploration Models 22
Summary 25
PARTII OIL AND GAS: ESTIMATION OF
DISCO VERED RESER VES
-M. A. Adelman 27
Introduction 27
Chapter 4
Proved Reserves: the API-AGA-CPA System 29
Engineering and Economic Concept of Proved Reserves 33
Lessons of the 1971 Natural Gas Audit 34
Chapter 5
Canada s Nonconventional Reserves 37
Chapter 6
The Growth of Proved Reserves
in the United States 41
Types of Wells 41
Reported Discoveries 45
Sources of New Reserves in Old Fields 46
New Oil or Gas: After Discovery 46
Chapter 7
The Relation of Probable Reserves
to Proved Reserves 49
Probable Reserves as a Stretch Factor on Proved Reserves
53
Chapter 8
The Role of Costs and Prices in Ascertaining
Proved and Probable Reserves
61
Variable Costs 61
Lack of Growth of Reserves 63
Effects of Price Controls and Per-Barrel Taxes 64
Chapter 9
Proved and Probable Reserves outside
the United States and Canada 69
Review of Selected Reserve Estimates 72
Summary 81
PART III OIL /I ND GAS: ESTIMA TION OF
UNDISCOVERED RESOURCES
-Gordon Kaufman 83
Introduction 83
What Is a Forecast of Undiscovered Petroleum? 86
Models for Projecting Amounts of Discoverable Hydrocarbons 90
Chapter 10
Life-Cycle Models of Petroleum Production 95
Chapter 11
Geologic-Volumetric Methods 113
Chapter 12
Rate-of-Effort Models 127
Bromberg and Hartigan Model 132
Chapter 13
Subjective Probability Methods 147
Circular 725 148
Canadian Resource Appraisal 164
Chapter 14
Econometric Methods
175
Khazzoom s FPC Model of Gas Supply 180
Erickson-Spann Model 183
MacAvoy-Pindyck Model 184
Forecasting Performance of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model (Version 2) 190
A Comparison of Models 191
Version 4 of the MacAvoy-Pindyck Model 195
Attanasi s Individual Basin Econometric Model 202
Parameter Estimation and Comparison of Models 205
Chapter 15
Discovery Process Models 213
Deposit Attributes, Size, and Measurement Error 219
Deposit Size Distributions 223
Arps and Roberts and Drew, Scheunemeyer, and Root s Models 233
Ryan s Model 236
Barouch and Kaufman s Model 248
Oil Supply Forecasting Using Disaggregated Discovery Process Models 270
Chapter 16
Industry Approaches to Forecasting
Future Discoveries 289
Summary 293
PARTIV COA L: AN ECONOMIC INTERPRETA TION
OF RESER VE ESTIMA TES
-Martin B. Zimmerman 295
Introduction 295
Chapter 17
The Resource Classification System 297
Certainty Categories 297
Physical Dimensions 298
Reserve Base 298
Chapter 18
An Economic Interpretation of Reserves
301
The Economic Concepts 301
The Demonstrated Reserve Base 302
Is the Reserve Base Coal Available at Current Cost? 310
Strippable Reserve Base 313
Chapter 19
What We Need to Know 321
Inferred Reserves 323
Technological Change 324
Chapter 20
Recoverability 327
Recoverability of Deep Reserves 327
Recoverability of Strip Reserves 329
Summary 331
PART V URA NI UM: ES TIMA TES OF U. S.
RESER VES AND RESOURCES
-John C. Houghton 333
Introduction 333
Uranium Geology 334
Chapter 21
Grand Junction Office Methodology 337
Historical Perspective 337
Ore Reserve Estimation 338
Potential Resource Estimation 341
Foreward Cost Method 346
Production Capability Analysis 348
Chapter 22
Interpretations of GJO Estimates
353
Chapter 23
Trend Projection Models 361
Lieberman s Life-Cycle and Discovery Rate Models 364
Econometric Model by Perl 366
Chapter 24
Crustal Abundance Models 371
Chapter 25
Subjective Probability Appraisal 381
A Case Study of Subjective Probability 382
PART VI COMPARISONS, RECOMMENDA TIONS,
AND CONCLUSIONS
-Martin B. Zimmerman
Chapter 26
Resources and Reserves 387
A Contrast in Terminology 387
Future Cost Increases 388
Coal 389
Oil 390
Undiscovered Oil and Gas 391
Uranium 391
The Need for Further Research 393
Appendixes
A - The Rate of Interest and the Optimal Depletion Rate 397
B — Decline Rates and Depletion Rates 403
C — The Soviet Reserve Classification System 407
D - The Resources and Reserves of Strippable Coal 409
Bibliography 413
Index 429
About the Authors 435
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| geographic | USA USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd |
| geographic_facet | USA |
| id | DE-604.BV006015814 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2025-02-03T16:44:36Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 0884106446 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-003783584 |
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| physical | XXIX, 434 S. graph. Darst. |
| psigel | TUB-nseb |
| publishDate | 1983 |
| publishDateSearch | 1983 |
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| publisher | Ballinger |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting Delfstoffen gtt Energiebronnen gtt Gas natural - EE.UU Petróleo - EE.UU Ressources énergétiques - États-Unis ram Uranio - EE.UU Coal United States Natural gas United States Petroleum United States Power resources United States Uranium United States Energievorrat (DE-588)4070814-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4070814-7 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting |
| title_auth | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting |
| title_full | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting M. A. Adelman ... |
| title_fullStr | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting M. A. Adelman ... |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy resources in an uncertain future coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting M. A. Adelman ... |
| title_short | Energy resources in an uncertain future |
| title_sort | energy resources in an uncertain future coal gas oil and uranium supply forecasting |
| title_sub | coal, gas, oil, and uranium supply forecasting |
| topic | Delfstoffen gtt Energiebronnen gtt Gas natural - EE.UU Petróleo - EE.UU Ressources énergétiques - États-Unis ram Uranio - EE.UU Coal United States Natural gas United States Petroleum United States Power resources United States Uranium United States Energievorrat (DE-588)4070814-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Delfstoffen Energiebronnen Gas natural - EE.UU Petróleo - EE.UU Ressources énergétiques - États-Unis Uranio - EE.UU Coal United States Natural gas United States Petroleum United States Power resources United States Uranium United States Energievorrat USA |
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