An Introduction to Financial and Economic Modeling for Utility Regulators

The most effective regulators in developing countries are following remarkably similar approaches. The main common element across "best practice" countries is the use of relatively simple quantitative models of operators' behavior and constraints to measure the impact of regulatory de...

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Hauptverfasser: Estache, Antonio, Rodriguez Pardina, Martin, Rodriguez, Jose Maria, Sember, German
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Rodriguez, Jose Maria
Sember, German
description The most effective regulators in developing countries are following remarkably similar approaches. The main common element across "best practice" countries is the use of relatively simple quantitative models of operators' behavior and constraints to measure the impact of regulatory decisions on some key financial and economic indicators of concern to the operators, the users, and the government. The authors provide an introduction to the design and use of these models. They draw on lessons from international experience in industrial and developing countries in ordinary or extraordinary revisions and in the context of contract renegotiations. Simplifying somewhat, these models force regulators to recognize that, in the long run, private operators need to at least cover their opportunity cost of capital, including the various types of risks specific to the country, the sector, or the projects with which they are involved. Because these variables change over time, scheduled revisions are needed to allow for adjustments in the key determinants of the rate of return of the operator. These revisions are a recognition of the fact that all these determinants-tariffs, subsidies, quality, investments, and other service obligations-are interrelated and jointly determine the rate of return. At every revision, the rules of the game for the regulator are exactly the same: to figure out the changes in the cost of capital and to adjust the variables driving the rate of return to ensure that it continues to be consistent with the cost of capital. If they can draw on reasonable data, these models do everything any financial model would do for the day-to-day management of a company but take a longer term view and include an explicit identification of the key regulatory instruments. They can monitor the consistency between cash flow generated by the business on the one hand and debt service and operational expense needs on the other to address the main concerns of the operators. They can also account for a large number of key policy factors including access and affordability concerns for various types of consumers. They generally account for the sensitivity of operators and users to various regulatory design options.
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The main common element across "best practice" countries is the use of relatively simple quantitative models of operators' behavior and constraints to measure the impact of regulatory decisions on some key financial and economic indicators of concern to the operators, the users, and the government. The authors provide an introduction to the design and use of these models. They draw on lessons from international experience in industrial and developing countries in ordinary or extraordinary revisions and in the context of contract renegotiations. Simplifying somewhat, these models force regulators to recognize that, in the long run, private operators need to at least cover their opportunity cost of capital, including the various types of risks specific to the country, the sector, or the projects with which they are involved. Because these variables change over time, scheduled revisions are needed to allow for adjustments in the key determinants of the rate of return of the operator. These revisions are a recognition of the fact that all these determinants-tariffs, subsidies, quality, investments, and other service obligations-are interrelated and jointly determine the rate of return. At every revision, the rules of the game for the regulator are exactly the same: to figure out the changes in the cost of capital and to adjust the variables driving the rate of return to ensure that it continues to be consistent with the cost of capital. If they can draw on reasonable data, these models do everything any financial model would do for the day-to-day management of a company but take a longer term view and include an explicit identification of the key regulatory instruments. They can monitor the consistency between cash flow generated by the business on the one hand and debt service and operational expense needs on the other to address the main concerns of the operators. 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The main common element across "best practice" countries is the use of relatively simple quantitative models of operators' behavior and constraints to measure the impact of regulatory decisions on some key financial and economic indicators of concern to the operators, the users, and the government. The authors provide an introduction to the design and use of these models. They draw on lessons from international experience in industrial and developing countries in ordinary or extraordinary revisions and in the context of contract renegotiations. Simplifying somewhat, these models force regulators to recognize that, in the long run, private operators need to at least cover their opportunity cost of capital, including the various types of risks specific to the country, the sector, or the projects with which they are involved. Because these variables change over time, scheduled revisions are needed to allow for adjustments in the key determinants of the rate of return of the operator. These revisions are a recognition of the fact that all these determinants-tariffs, subsidies, quality, investments, and other service obligations-are interrelated and jointly determine the rate of return. At every revision, the rules of the game for the regulator are exactly the same: to figure out the changes in the cost of capital and to adjust the variables driving the rate of return to ensure that it continues to be consistent with the cost of capital. If they can draw on reasonable data, these models do everything any financial model would do for the day-to-day management of a company but take a longer term view and include an explicit identification of the key regulatory instruments. They can monitor the consistency between cash flow generated by the business on the one hand and debt service and operational expense needs on the other to address the main concerns of the operators. They can also account for a large number of key policy factors including access and affordability concerns for various types of consumers. They generally account for the sensitivity of operators and users to various regulatory design options.</description><subject>ACCOUNTABILITY</subject><subject>ACCOUNTING</subject><subject>ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS</subject><subject>ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY</subject><subject>ASSET VALUATION</subject><subject>AVERAGE COSTS</subject><subject>BALANCE SHEET</subject><subject>BASKET OF GOODS</subject><subject>BENCHMARKING</subject><subject>BENCHMARKS</subject><subject>BORROWING</subject><subject>CASH FLOW</subject><subject>CASH FLOWS</subject><subject>COLLUSION</subject><subject>CONSUMERS</subject><subject>CONSUMPTION LEVELS</subject><subject>CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT</subject><subject>CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS</subject><subject>COST MINIMIZATION</subject><subject>COST OF CAPITAL</subject><subject>CREDIT MARKETS</subject><subject>CROSS SUBSIDIES</subject><subject>DEBT</subject><subject>DEBT COVERAGE</subject><subject>DEBT SERVICE</subject><subject>DECISION MAKING</subject><subject>DECISION VARIABLES</subject><subject>DEPRECIATION</subject><subject>DEVALUATION</subject><subject>ECONOMETRIC MODELS</subject><subject>ECONOMIC EFFECTS</subject><subject>ECONOMIC MODELS</subject><subject>ELECTRICITY</subject><subject>EMPLOYMENT</subject><subject>EQUILIBRIUM</subject><subject>EXCHANGE RATE</subject><subject>EXCHANGE RATES</subject><subject>EXCHANGE RATES ACCOUNTABILITY</subject><subject>EXTERNALITIES</subject><subject>FINANCIAL MARKETS</subject><subject>FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE</subject><subject>FINANCIAL STRUCTURE</subject><subject>FORECASTS</subject><subject>GDP</subject><subject>INCOME</subject><subject>INCOME LEVELS</subject><subject>INFLATION</subject><subject>INVESTMENTS</subject><subject>LABOR MARKETS</subject><subject>LEGISLATION</subject><subject>LICENSES</subject><subject>LONG RUN MARGINAL COST PRICING</subject><subject>MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS</subject><subject>MANDATES</subject><subject>MARGINAL COST</subject><subject>MARGINAL COST PRICING</subject><subject>MARGINAL COSTS</subject><subject>MARKET PRICES</subject><subject>MONOPOLIES</subject><subject>OPERATING COSTS</subject><subject>OPPORTUNITY COST</subject><subject>POLICY INSTRUMENTS</subject><subject>PRESENT VALUE</subject><subject>PRICE CONTROLS</subject><subject>PRICE DISCRIMINATION</subject><subject>PRICE LEVELS</subject><subject>PRIVATE SECTOR</subject><subject>PRIVATIZATION</subject><subject>PRODUCT MARKETS</subject><subject>PRODUCTIVITY</subject><subject>PROFIT RATE</subject><subject>PROFITABILITY</subject><subject>PROVISION OF INFRASTRUCTURE</subject><subject>PUBLIC ENTERPRISES</subject><subject>PUBLIC HEARINGS</subject><subject>PUBLIC SECTOR</subject><subject>PUBLIC SERVICE</subject><subject>PUBLIC SERVICES</subject><subject>PUBLIC UTILITY REGULATION</subject><subject>QUALITY</subject><subject>QUALITY STANDARDS</subject><subject>RATE OF RETURN</subject><subject>REGULATION</subject><subject>REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTS</subject><subject>REGULATORY FRAMEWORK</subject><subject>REGULATORY OBJECTIVES</subject><subject>REGULATORY REGIMES</subject><subject>RESOURCE ALLOCATION</subject><subject>RISK PREMIUM</subject><subject>SALES OF ASSETS</subject><subject>SAVINGS</subject><subject>SHADOW PRICES</subject><subject>SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS</subject><subject>SUBSIDIES</subject><subject>TARIFFS</subject><subject>TAX</subject><subject>TAX SYSTEMS</subject><subject>TELECOMMUNICATIONS</subject><subject>TOTAL COSTS</subject><subject>TRANSPARENCY</subject><subject>UTILITIES</subject><subject>WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX</subject><subject>WILLINGNESS TO PAY</subject><fulltext>true</fulltext><rsrctype>book</rsrctype><creationdate>2003</creationdate><recordtype>book</recordtype><sourceid>VO9</sourceid><recordid>eNqdyzsOgkAQAFAaC6PeYS5gIv7A0hiIFDZGa7LuDpsJ4wxZlhBur4UnsHrVmyfVWaCSGNQNNpIKRIWSxIglw2DEQWFV9E0WbuqQSTw0GuAZiSlOcEc_sIka-mUyawz3uPq5SPZl8bhc16MGdi8jba0dSis6MjqPATvt6TunOt2c8mOd5tvssPuzfQCcC0VN</recordid><startdate>200303</startdate><enddate>200303</enddate><creator>Estache, Antonio</creator><creator>Rodriguez Pardina, Martin</creator><creator>Rodriguez, Jose Maria</creator><creator>Sember, German</creator><general>World Bank, Washington, DC</general><scope>VO9</scope></search><sort><creationdate>200303</creationdate><title>An Introduction to Financial and Economic Modeling for Utility Regulators</title><author>Estache, Antonio ; Rodriguez Pardina, Martin ; Rodriguez, Jose Maria ; Sember, German</author></sort><facets><frbrtype>5</frbrtype><frbrgroupid>cdi_FETCH-worldbank_openknowledgerepository_10986_182753</frbrgroupid><rsrctype>books</rsrctype><prefilter>books</prefilter><language>eng</language><creationdate>2003</creationdate><topic>ACCOUNTABILITY</topic><topic>ACCOUNTING</topic><topic>ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS</topic><topic>ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY</topic><topic>ASSET VALUATION</topic><topic>AVERAGE COSTS</topic><topic>BALANCE SHEET</topic><topic>BASKET OF GOODS</topic><topic>BENCHMARKING</topic><topic>BENCHMARKS</topic><topic>BORROWING</topic><topic>CASH FLOW</topic><topic>CASH FLOWS</topic><topic>COLLUSION</topic><topic>CONSUMERS</topic><topic>CONSUMPTION LEVELS</topic><topic>CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT</topic><topic>CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS</topic><topic>COST MINIMIZATION</topic><topic>COST OF CAPITAL</topic><topic>CREDIT MARKETS</topic><topic>CROSS SUBSIDIES</topic><topic>DEBT</topic><topic>DEBT COVERAGE</topic><topic>DEBT SERVICE</topic><topic>DECISION MAKING</topic><topic>DECISION VARIABLES</topic><topic>DEPRECIATION</topic><topic>DEVALUATION</topic><topic>ECONOMETRIC MODELS</topic><topic>ECONOMIC EFFECTS</topic><topic>ECONOMIC MODELS</topic><topic>ELECTRICITY</topic><topic>EMPLOYMENT</topic><topic>EQUILIBRIUM</topic><topic>EXCHANGE RATE</topic><topic>EXCHANGE RATES</topic><topic>EXCHANGE RATES ACCOUNTABILITY</topic><topic>EXTERNALITIES</topic><topic>FINANCIAL MARKETS</topic><topic>FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE</topic><topic>FINANCIAL STRUCTURE</topic><topic>FORECASTS</topic><topic>GDP</topic><topic>INCOME</topic><topic>INCOME LEVELS</topic><topic>INFLATION</topic><topic>INVESTMENTS</topic><topic>LABOR MARKETS</topic><topic>LEGISLATION</topic><topic>LICENSES</topic><topic>LONG RUN MARGINAL COST PRICING</topic><topic>MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS</topic><topic>MANDATES</topic><topic>MARGINAL COST</topic><topic>MARGINAL COST PRICING</topic><topic>MARGINAL COSTS</topic><topic>MARKET PRICES</topic><topic>MONOPOLIES</topic><topic>OPERATING COSTS</topic><topic>OPPORTUNITY COST</topic><topic>POLICY INSTRUMENTS</topic><topic>PRESENT VALUE</topic><topic>PRICE CONTROLS</topic><topic>PRICE DISCRIMINATION</topic><topic>PRICE LEVELS</topic><topic>PRIVATE SECTOR</topic><topic>PRIVATIZATION</topic><topic>PRODUCT MARKETS</topic><topic>PRODUCTIVITY</topic><topic>PROFIT RATE</topic><topic>PROFITABILITY</topic><topic>PROVISION OF INFRASTRUCTURE</topic><topic>PUBLIC ENTERPRISES</topic><topic>PUBLIC HEARINGS</topic><topic>PUBLIC SECTOR</topic><topic>PUBLIC SERVICE</topic><topic>PUBLIC SERVICES</topic><topic>PUBLIC UTILITY REGULATION</topic><topic>QUALITY</topic><topic>QUALITY STANDARDS</topic><topic>RATE OF RETURN</topic><topic>REGULATION</topic><topic>REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTS</topic><topic>REGULATORY FRAMEWORK</topic><topic>REGULATORY OBJECTIVES</topic><topic>REGULATORY REGIMES</topic><topic>RESOURCE ALLOCATION</topic><topic>RISK PREMIUM</topic><topic>SALES OF ASSETS</topic><topic>SAVINGS</topic><topic>SHADOW PRICES</topic><topic>SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS</topic><topic>SUBSIDIES</topic><topic>TARIFFS</topic><topic>TAX</topic><topic>TAX SYSTEMS</topic><topic>TELECOMMUNICATIONS</topic><topic>TOTAL COSTS</topic><topic>TRANSPARENCY</topic><topic>UTILITIES</topic><topic>WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX</topic><topic>WILLINGNESS TO PAY</topic><toplevel>online_resources</toplevel><creatorcontrib>Estache, Antonio</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodriguez Pardina, Martin</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Rodriguez, Jose Maria</creatorcontrib><creatorcontrib>Sember, German</creatorcontrib><collection>Open Knowledge Repository</collection></facets><delivery><delcategory>Remote Search Resource</delcategory><fulltext>fulltext_linktorsrc</fulltext></delivery><addata><au>Estache, Antonio</au><au>Rodriguez Pardina, Martin</au><au>Rodriguez, Jose Maria</au><au>Sember, German</au><format>book</format><genre>book</genre><ristype>BOOK</ristype><btitle>An Introduction to Financial and Economic Modeling for Utility Regulators</btitle><seriestitle>Policy Research Working Paper</seriestitle><date>2003-03</date><risdate>2003</risdate><volume>3001</volume><abstract>The most effective regulators in developing countries are following remarkably similar approaches. The main common element across "best practice" countries is the use of relatively simple quantitative models of operators' behavior and constraints to measure the impact of regulatory decisions on some key financial and economic indicators of concern to the operators, the users, and the government. The authors provide an introduction to the design and use of these models. They draw on lessons from international experience in industrial and developing countries in ordinary or extraordinary revisions and in the context of contract renegotiations. Simplifying somewhat, these models force regulators to recognize that, in the long run, private operators need to at least cover their opportunity cost of capital, including the various types of risks specific to the country, the sector, or the projects with which they are involved. Because these variables change over time, scheduled revisions are needed to allow for adjustments in the key determinants of the rate of return of the operator. These revisions are a recognition of the fact that all these determinants-tariffs, subsidies, quality, investments, and other service obligations-are interrelated and jointly determine the rate of return. At every revision, the rules of the game for the regulator are exactly the same: to figure out the changes in the cost of capital and to adjust the variables driving the rate of return to ensure that it continues to be consistent with the cost of capital. If they can draw on reasonable data, these models do everything any financial model would do for the day-to-day management of a company but take a longer term view and include an explicit identification of the key regulatory instruments. They can monitor the consistency between cash flow generated by the business on the one hand and debt service and operational expense needs on the other to address the main concerns of the operators. They can also account for a large number of key policy factors including access and affordability concerns for various types of consumers. They generally account for the sensitivity of operators and users to various regulatory design options.</abstract><pub>World Bank, Washington, DC</pub><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record>
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subjects ACCOUNTABILITY
ACCOUNTING
ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS
ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY
ASSET VALUATION
AVERAGE COSTS
BALANCE SHEET
BASKET OF GOODS
BENCHMARKING
BENCHMARKS
BORROWING
CASH FLOW
CASH FLOWS
COLLUSION
CONSUMERS
CONSUMPTION LEVELS
CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT
CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS
COST MINIMIZATION
COST OF CAPITAL
CREDIT MARKETS
CROSS SUBSIDIES
DEBT
DEBT COVERAGE
DEBT SERVICE
DECISION MAKING
DECISION VARIABLES
DEPRECIATION
DEVALUATION
ECONOMETRIC MODELS
ECONOMIC EFFECTS
ECONOMIC MODELS
ELECTRICITY
EMPLOYMENT
EQUILIBRIUM
EXCHANGE RATE
EXCHANGE RATES
EXCHANGE RATES ACCOUNTABILITY
EXTERNALITIES
FINANCIAL MARKETS
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
FINANCIAL STRUCTURE
FORECASTS
GDP
INCOME
INCOME LEVELS
INFLATION
INVESTMENTS
LABOR MARKETS
LEGISLATION
LICENSES
LONG RUN MARGINAL COST PRICING
MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS
MANDATES
MARGINAL COST
MARGINAL COST PRICING
MARGINAL COSTS
MARKET PRICES
MONOPOLIES
OPERATING COSTS
OPPORTUNITY COST
POLICY INSTRUMENTS
PRESENT VALUE
PRICE CONTROLS
PRICE DISCRIMINATION
PRICE LEVELS
PRIVATE SECTOR
PRIVATIZATION
PRODUCT MARKETS
PRODUCTIVITY
PROFIT RATE
PROFITABILITY
PROVISION OF INFRASTRUCTURE
PUBLIC ENTERPRISES
PUBLIC HEARINGS
PUBLIC SECTOR
PUBLIC SERVICE
PUBLIC SERVICES
PUBLIC UTILITY REGULATION
QUALITY
QUALITY STANDARDS
RATE OF RETURN
REGULATION
REGULATORY ENVIRONMENTS
REGULATORY FRAMEWORK
REGULATORY OBJECTIVES
REGULATORY REGIMES
RESOURCE ALLOCATION
RISK PREMIUM
SALES OF ASSETS
SAVINGS
SHADOW PRICES
SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
SUBSIDIES
TARIFFS
TAX
TAX SYSTEMS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TOTAL COSTS
TRANSPARENCY
UTILITIES
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
WILLINGNESS TO PAY
title An Introduction to Financial and Economic Modeling for Utility Regulators
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