Mechanisms of the Early 20th Century Warming in the Arctic

The Early 20th Century Warming (ETCW) in the northern high latitudes was comparable in magnitude to the present-day warming yet occurred at a time when the growth in atmospheric greenhouse gases was rising significantly less than in the last 40 years. The causes of ETCW remain a matter of debate. The key issue is to assess the contribution of internal variability and external natural and human impacts to this climate anomaly. This paper provides an overview of plausible mechanisms related to the early warming period that involve different factors of internal climate variability and external forcing. Based on the vast variety of related studies, it is difficult to attribute ETCW in the Arctic to any of major internal variability mechanisms or external forcings alone. Most likely it was caused by a combined effect of long-term natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific with a contribution of the natural radiative forcing related to the reduced volcanic activity and variations of solar activity as well as growing greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic emissions.