A path matching model on new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions

New urbanization is the transformation and upgrading of traditional urbanization in China, and it is one of the key economic engines that provide power for China's economic growth. Different from traditional urbanization, the new urbanization strategy emphasizes a sustainable urbanization development model with human urbanization as core, the ecological environment carrying capacity as based, and the urban development law as foundation. Choosing the right new urbanization path is a key decision towards an effective development of a particular region. In this paper we propose a quantitative method based on profile deviation analysis to help decision-makers select the best path to develop new urbanization in mineral resource abundant regions (MRARs). We collect 21 indicators and validate the proposed model using data from 55 coal resource abundant regions (CRARs) in China. Some of the main results we obtained are as follows: among the 55 CRARs, nearly half of the regions are suitable for the simple and intensive new urbanization paths; the regions suitable for simple comprehensive and central-city paths are far more than those suitable for intensive comprehensive and central-city paths; most regions with weak environmental carrying capacity are suitable for simple resource-based and comprehensive urbanization; most regions with strong environmental carrying capacity are suitable for intensive resource-based and location-based urbanization. The results of path matching are consistent with the strategic development direction of most CRARs, but there are also a few CRARs, such as Ordos and Shaoyang, that have unclear understanding of their own advantages and disadvantages, deviate from the best path, causing waste of resources. This study is unique as it proposes and validates the first path-matching model on new urbanization in MRARs, and the model can be extended to study sustainable urbanization and other sustainability problems. •A path-matching model on new urbanization is proposed and validated.•Offer much insight into how to achieve new urbanization in China.•CRARs with weak environmental carrying capacity generally face inferior location conditions.•CRARs with strong environmental carrying capacity tend to have poor social and economic foundation.•A few CRARs deviate from the best new urbanization path.