Vulnerability assessment of rural aging community for abandoned farmlands in South Korea

Rapid urbanization and industrialization in South Korea have led to less available farmland. The recent rapid aging of the rural population (i.e., farmers) has also resulted in the disuse of arable farmland and increased farmland abandonment in South Korea. This abandoned farmland has caused farmland malfunction and desolation and damaged the landscape. The objective of this study is to evaluate the vulnerability of farmland abandonment using the Geographic Information System (GIS), the Korean agricultural business registration database, and indirect bivariate statistical analysis. The results of this study can help predict potential abandoned farmlands and prepare effective policies to help maintain active arable farmlands for the future. Our findings show that significantly negative factors for farmland abandonment include an elevation of less than 100 m, no gravel, and a distance of 100 m or less from the road. In addition, a comparison of 2015 and 2025 vulnerabilities confirms that social factors such as farmer aging are important. The influence of social factors is significant because they are far more volatile than geographical factors. This study suggests that conducting regional vulnerability assessments for abandonment of agricultural land using GIS data and an agricultural business registration database can be utilized to establish regional policies for national food security, arable farmland use, and farm succession support for aging farmers. •Vulnerability assessment of farmland abandonment with indirect bivariate statistical analysis using GIS and agricultural management database.•Farmland-lots scale analysis combining regional-scale social factors and parcel-level geographical data.•Agricultural sectors in developed countries should be prepared for farmland abandonment following rural aging.