Linking Fishing Behavior and Ecosystem Dynamics Using Social and Ecological Network Models

One goal of ecosystem-based management is studying an ecosystem and its people, the socio-ecological system, in a qualitative and quantitative modeling approach that can provide management agencies with possible outcomes of their actions using scenario forecasting. Ecosystem-based fisheries management strives to use the socio-ecological system approach, including direct and indirect impacts on multiple species including the behavioral responses of fishers after a regulatory change (a gillnet ban). Here, we link fisher behavioral networks with a mass-balanced food-web ECOPATH network model of an estuarine ecosystem and its commercial fisheries for an analysis of fishing impacts after a gillnet ban on multiple species using ECOSIM. We modeled fisher behavioral networks using reported catches of species from individual fishers along with the gear fished to create nodes in a gear/species affiliation network. Individual fishers with common gear/species use are indicative of common fishing behavior. When such fishers have high network centrality and are engaged in multiple gear/species fisheries, they can transition to other gear/species fisheries along "switching pathways" when facing a regulatory change. We used an index of joint gear participation to identify likely gear switching pathways, and we predicted changes in fishing effort after a gill net ban. We simulated the gill net ban in ECOSIM under two scenarios of fishing effort: Scenario 1, gill net fishing effort of 0%; Scenario 2, gill net fishing effort of 0% with increased effort in the alternative gear fisheries using the predicted switching pathways for the affiliation network. Scenario 1 predicted an increase in flounder (Paralichthys spp.) biomass over a decade. Under Scenario 2, fishers targeting flounders were predicted to switch from gill nets to pound nets. Scenario 2 predicted a 7% decline in flounder biomass over ten years, rather than an increase in flounders. The gillnet ban with increased effort due to switching is predicted to have the opposite effect on the conservation goal, which was to increase flounder stocks. Fishery management that incorporates a socio-ecological approach modeling both fisher behaviors and multi-species ecosystem responses can reveal single-species responses that are in the opposite direction of the anticipated management goals.