Comparing process-based wheat growth models in their simulation of yield losses caused by plant diseases
•WHEATPEST approach was transferred to four crop models to simulate yield losses due to diseases.•A benchmark field dataset was used to run two model calibrations with increasing data availability.•A factorial simulation experiment allowed evaluating models behavior in simulating yield losses.•Maxim...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Field crops research 2021-05, Vol.265, p.108108, Article 108108 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | •WHEATPEST approach was transferred to four crop models to simulate yield losses due to diseases.•A benchmark field dataset was used to run two model calibrations with increasing data availability.•A factorial simulation experiment allowed evaluating models behavior in simulating yield losses.•Maximum severity had the strongest effect on simulated actual yield and absolute yield losses.•The guide for the implementation of the damage mechanisms into crop models is released.
Plant diseases are major causes of crop yield losses globally, yet their effects represent a poorly documented source of uncertainty in crop modelling. Ignoring the effects of plant diseases in crop models may lead to large overestimations of current and future crop production levels. Simulation modelling must be seen as a necessary instrument to understand systems and predict their behaviours. This instrument is therefore necessary when profound changes in system structures are envisioned in view of, e.g., ecological intensification or climate adaptation, which necessarily will change injury profiles by plant pathogens and pests. Here, damage mechanisms associated with four major diseases of wheat (brown and yellow rust, septoria tritici blotch and powdery mildew) are considered. These diseases and their damage mechanisms are featured in WHEATPEST, a process-based model for wheat growth under disease. The same damage mechanisms were thus incorporated into four wheat growth models (HERMES, WOFOST_GT, SSM_WHEAT, DSSAT-Nwheat), which did not account for yield losses to diseases before. A benchmark experimental data set from the Netherlands was used to perform two calibration steps to simulate disease-free attainable wheat yields (Ya), first by using the experimentally measured crop development and yields as reference, and second by further using the observed leaf area dynamics. A simulation experiment was then conducted with the five models, with three independent factors: (i) each of the four wheat diseases (individually or combined), (ii) the shape of disease progress curves, and (iii) the maximum disease severity. We analysed the simulated crop growth, actual crop yield (Y), and absolute (YL = Ya – Y) and relative (RYL = YL/Ya) yield loss, at different levels of these three factors. In a last stage of analysis, we simulated the effects of Ya on YL and RYL. Maximum severity of disease had the strongest effect on simulated Y and on YL, while there were also significant differences among m |
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ISSN: | 0378-4290 1872-6852 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108108 |