Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the developmen...
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Scientific reports 2021-01, Vol.11 (1), p.717-717, Article 717 |
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| description | Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected millions of people since December 2019. Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the
R
2
of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak. |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8 |
| format | Article |
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R
2
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R
2
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Summarizing the development of COVID-19 and assessing the effects of control measures are very critical to China and other countries. A logistic growth curve model was employed to compare the development of COVID-19 before and after the emergency response took effect. We found that the number of confirmed cases peaked 9–14 days after the first detection of an imported case, but there was a peak lag in the province where the outbreak was concentrated. Results of the growth curves indicated that the fitted cumulative confirmed cases were close to the actual observed cases, and the
R
2
of all models was above 0.95. The average growth rate decreased by 44.42% nationally and by 32.5% outside Hubei Province. The average growth rate in the 12 high-risk areas decreased by 29.9%. The average growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases decreased by approximately 50% after the emergency response. Areas with frequent population migration have a high risk of outbreak. The emergency response taken by the Chinese government was able to effectively control the COVID-19 outbreak. Our study provides references for other countries and regions to control the COVID-19 outbreak.</abstract><cop>London</cop><pub>Nature Publishing Group UK</pub><pmid>33436848</pmid><doi>10.1038/s41598-020-80201-8</doi><tpages>9</tpages><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2017-1726</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1980-7520</orcidid><orcidid>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7113-6349</orcidid><oa>free_for_read</oa></addata></record> |
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| subjects | 692/699/255 692/700/478 China Communicable Disease Control - standards Communicable Disease Control - statistics & numerical data Coronaviruses COVID-19 COVID-19 - epidemiology COVID-19 - prevention & control Emergencies - epidemiology Emergency preparedness Epidemics Growth curves Growth rate Humanities and Social Sciences Humans multidisciplinary Multidisciplinary Sciences Outbreaks Pandemics Science Science & Technology Science & Technology - Other Topics Science (multidisciplinary) Spatio-Temporal Analysis |
| title | Summary of the COVID-19 epidemic and estimating the effects of emergency responses in China |
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