A Systemic Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Gold Mining within the Blyde River Catchment, a Strategic Water Area of South Africa

Exploratory modelling of the impact of gold mining on groundwater in a strategic water area of South Africa was undertaken. A systems dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the impact of gold mining on water quality, focusing on groundwater contamination risk, within the context of competing developmental priorities around water resource development and the socio-economic gains from gold mining. The model also identified interventions to minimise the impacts by the year 2040. The study area was the Blyde River Catchment (BRC), which is part of the Olifants Water Management Area in South Africa. This area is an important contributor, currently and in the future, to freshwater flows and groundwater in the Olifants River Catchment, which is one of South Africa's most economically important catchments. The model development process included a causal loop diagram--based problem conceptualisation, followed by the drawing of stock-flow diagrams and the determining of model parameters based on a combination of background literature, data from environmental impact assessments, and from the national Department of Water and Sanitation. The model showed the potential environmental risks of gold mine wastewater production and interventions to minimise these risks. The most effective intervention identified to reduce the risk of groundwater contamination was the development and use of synthetic-lined tailings dams. The baseline simulation result of sulphate loading of 5430 t/year can be reduced by 3070 t/year to give a simulated sulphate load of 2270 t/year in 2040 using this intervention. In comparison, the simulated wastewater recycling intervention only reduced the sulphate load to 4630 t/year and the wastewater treatment interventions to 3420 t/year. This project contributes to the exploratory modelling of an understudied region of the Olifants River Catchment that is a crucial provider of freshwater flows to the Olifants, which is threatened by increasing gold mining in the upper BRC. The SD model highlighted the importance of protecting the dolomitic aquifers in the BRC for the long term sustainability of the catchment, which is particularly important if groundwater development occurs.