The Fertilizer Industry in Brazil and the Assurance of Inputs for Biofuels Production: Prospective Scenarios after COVID-19

Fertilizers are essential inputs for the agribusiness chain-they increase the productivity on available arable land and help to avoid changes in land use. Currently, Brazil is one of the largest consumers of fertilizers in the world but its imports of NPK fertilizers, as a percentage of its total consumption, have risen from 32% in 1988 to 77% in 2018. Biofuels are relevant in the transport sector and the Brazilian government, after the Paris Agreement, created the National Biofuels Policy (Renovabio), which has as one of its goals to raise the participation of biofuels in the transport sector to 28.6% by 2028. Soy, corn, and sugarcane (biofuels raw material) currently account for more than 70% of the consumption of NPK fertilizers in the country. Due to several reasons, in the last 10 years many local projects designed to fill the supply gap for fertilizers in Brazil have not been successful. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has raised questions about the reliability of fertilizer supply in global value chains. In this context, is Brazil's long-term biofuel market at risk after COVID-19? A total of 38 experts were consulted and four reference scenarios were developed. The article concluded that the Brazilian fertilizer industry must be prepared for a scenario of limited increase in demand on a global scale-strategic alliances may be forged to maintain existing installed capacity. Should the Brazilian government fail to provide any stimulus for the country's fertilizer industry, it is likely that by 2035, Brazil's biofuel industry sector would be overexposed to price volatility and availability on the global fertilizer market.