Youth in Northern Ireland: Linking Violence Exposure, Emotional Insecurity, and the Political Macrosystem

Growing up in the aftermath of armed conflict puts youth at a higher risk for psychopathology—particularly in societies like Northern Ireland which continue to be characterized by intergroup tension and cyclical violence. This risk may be heightened during adolescence, when youth are beginning to explore their identities and are becoming more aware of intergroup dynamics in both their immediate communities and the broader society. It is also during this stage when youth increasingly witness or engage in antisocial behavior and sectarian activities. A series of studies in Belfast conducted by Cummings et al. (2014, Child Dev Perspect, 12(1), 16–38; 2019, J Clin Child Adolesc Psychol, 48(2), 296–305) showed that adolescents’ exposure to sectarian violence resulted in heightened emotional insecurity about the community and subsequent adjustment problems. Though the impact of direct exposure to violence is well documented, few studies have accounted for the influence of sectarianism that occurs outside of one's immediate environment. These influences may include the general climate surrounding events that are not experienced firsthand but are nonetheless salient, such as the overarching levels of tension between groups or societal discourse that is threatening to one's identity. These higher‐level influences, often referred to collectively as the macrosystem, are a necessary component to consider for adequately assessing one's socio‐developmental environment. Yet, measurement at this level of the social ecology has proven elusive in past work. The current study advances research in this area by using newspaper coding as a method of measuring the political macrosystem in Northern Ireland and assessing whether a tense or threatening climate serves as an added risk factor for youth living in Belfast. In the current study, we measured sectarian violence at the level of the macrosystem by systematically collecting and coding newspaper articles from Northern Ireland that were published between 2006 and 2011 (N = 2,797). Each article was coded according to its level of overall political tension between Catholics and Protestants, threat to Catholics, and threat to Protestants. When aggregated, these assessments reflected the overarching trends in Catholic–Protestant relations during this period. In order to assess the association between these sociopolitical trends and the direct experiences of adolescents, the newspaper coding was linked with five waves of survey dat