Progression and projection for shoulder surgery in France, 2012–2070: Epidemiologic study with trend and projection analysis

Shoulder surgery has been rapidly expanding over the past 20 years and now makes up a large share of orthopedic surgery practice. Data on how this activity has changed is not available in France due to a lack of registries. The study objectives were to: (1) quantify the number of shoulder surgeries in France, (2) predict how this activity will change over the next 50 years based on extreme scenarios. This study involved an analysis of shoulder surgery data taken from the French hospital discharge database (PMSI). Two mathematical scenarios were applied to define the change over time: the first only considered the evolution in the population and changes in the age brackets over time; the second extrapolated the trends observed over the past few years (2012 to 2018). In 2018, there were 234,612 procedures coded as primary shoulder surgery procedures in France. This activity increased 24.5% between 2012 and 2018 and is projected to increase 18% to 161% from now to 2050, depending on the scenario (p