Emission reduction and energy-intensity enhancement: The expected and unexpected consequences of China’s coal consumption constraint policy

In order to improve air-quality and end over-reliance on coal, China introduced the coal consumption constraint policy (CCCP) in 2011. However, after nearly a decade of implementation, it is still unclear whether this policy legitimately has the effects of energy-saving and emission-reduction. The present study aims to estimate the nationwide effects of CCCP at city level, which has not been fully studied in the past. For this purpose, a combined propensity score matching and difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model is adopted to investigate policy effect and its heterogeneity in terms of energy structure, SO2 emissions and energy intensity. In addition, the superposition effect and the marginal effect of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies for electricity industry (ESERE) are investigated for the first time. The simulation results of PSM-DID model reveal that the implementation of CCCP heightens the share of electricity consumption in pilot cities by 4.898%. Furthermore, CCCP and ESERE have a negative synergistic effect on SO2 emissions thanks to the further decline of emission intensity in the electricity industry. However, either CCCP only or its combination with ESERE fails to reduce the energy intensity nationwide as anticipated. [Display omitted] •Coal consumption constraint policy was evaluated at city level using PSM-DID model.•Simply restricting coal consumption would increase energy intensity significantly.•Mandatory coal cap and strict energy-intensity target increased policy enforcement.•Superposition effect of auxiliary electricity policy was investigated using DDD model.•Auxiliary policy was essential to reducing pollutant emission and energy intensity.