Prediction of stone-free rates following extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy in a contemporary cohort of patients with stone densities exceeding 1000 HU

Purpose: Nephrolithiasis is a common urologic problem, and its incidence is increasing. Shockwave Lithotripsy (SWL) has better results for patients with stones 1000 HU stones. Methods: From January 2013 to September 2019, patient shared decision consecutive SWL for the treatment of a single > 1000 HU renal stone diagnosed by non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). Endpoints: Fragmentation and SF or clinically insignificant residual fragments ≤ 4 mm at 4 weeks. Age, gender, stone side, location, size and density, number and average energy (Joules) of shocks were explored on uni- and multivariate regression analysis. Results: All sixty-one patients included were diagnosed with renal stone between 5 and 20 mm (maximum length) and underwent one SWL session only: 62.3% males, median age 48 (21-80) years, mean stone size 9.43 ± 2.9 mm (6.0-20.0), mean density 1210 ± 135 HU (1000-1558). There were 39 (63.9%) cases of SF, 16 (26.2%) of partial success and six (9.8%) of no success. Stone size was the only independent predictor of fragmentation, OR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.32-2.55, p = 0.0003, and SF OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.31-2.78, p = 0.008. The best discriminatory stone size on ROC analysis was 1 cm. Conclusion: Stone size was the only significant success predictor in our cohort, with 76% SF rate for stones 1000 HU may be suitable to SWL.