Development of a predictive nomogram for cause-specific mortality in surgically resected early-stage oesophageal cancer: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) analysis

The aim of this population-based study was to perform competing risk analysis and estimate cancer- and other cause-specific mortality in patients who underwent oesophagectomy with pT1N0M0 oesophageal cancer (EC). A competing risks nomogram was also developed to predict the proportional of death from each specific cause. A total of 1,144 patients who received oesophagectomy for pT1N0M0 EC between 2010 and 2015 from SEER database were included. The cumulative incidence function was used to evaluate each cause of death, and the significant difference was assessed by the Grey's test. A nomogram was established using the proportional subdistribution hazard analysis to identify predictors for each cause-specific death. The 5-year cumulative incidence of cancer-specific death for surgically resected pT1N0M0 EC was 15.7%, and the incidence was 11.2% for other cause-specific death. Age, tumour length, pT1 substage, grade, history and primary site were identified as predictive factors for EC-specific death, but only age, tumor length and pT1 substage were associated with death from other cause. Our nomograms showed a relative good discriminative ability, with c-index of 0.663 for the EC-specific mortality model and 0.699 for the other cause-specific mortality model. The calibration curves showed a good match between the nomogram-predicted probabilities and the actual probabilities. In patients who underwent curative-intent resection for pT1N0M0 EC, death from other causes was an important competing event. During clinical decision making and patient-clinician communication, our quantifiable nomograms could provide a rapid and precise judgement of the risk of death from each cause.