The response of dust emission sources to climate change: Current and future simulation for southwest of Iran

This study recognizes present dust emission sources (DESs) and their future projections in the southwest of Iran (2050 and 2070) through simulations performed by distribution models. The sites observation, raster dataset of climate layers and statistical models in the MaxEnt software were used to predict the current and future dust coverage and distribution, and their response to climate change using representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m−2 projections. Statistical machine learning analysis show that 40.8% of the study area covering 25,810 km2 are susceptible to emit dust at the present time, and its projections will increase up to 28,839, 26,002, 26,071 and 26,124 km2 for RCP scenarios of +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W m−2, respectively, by the year 2070. Temperature and precipitation assessments show that the most effective parameters determine future changes in DES coverage and distribution. The area under the curve (AUC) for DESs was 0.919, and results of Jackknife analyses show high sensitivity of dust sources to climate variables. The results illustrate that the present DESs are mainly driven by a combination of temperature, precipitation and land-use management, and the effects of nature are comparable to the anthropogenic activities, as humans continue to shape the DESs through energy, water and land use. The predicted increase of DESs may substantially worsen dust storms in the future, thereby affecting the functioning of ecosystems as well as human health. The outcomes of this study may support biocrust restoration technologies as a suitable option in sustainable management of arid lands and dust emission sources. [Display omitted] •Distribution models are useful tools for the prediction of dust sources coverage and distribution•The future coverage of dust sources are increased in the study area in various climate change projection scenarios.•Anthropogenic activities are important as well as natural factors in dust coverage and distribution•Prediction of dust sources provide insights to combat desertification by biocrust restoration technologies