THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING—OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 - 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast....

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Veröffentlicht in:	Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2003, Vol.9 (1), p.41-48
1. Verfasser:	周霞琼端义宏朱永褆
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	天气预报数值预报热带气旋热带气象统计预报
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creator	周霞琼端义宏朱永褆
description	Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 - 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly.The skill of 60 % - 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steering current is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.
doi_str_mv	10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2003.01.005
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The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly.The skill of 60 % - 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steering current is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.</abstract><pub>Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, 200030 China</pub><doi>10.3969/j.issn.1006-8775.2003.01.005</doi><tpages>8</tpages></addata></record>
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subjects	天气预报数值预报热带气旋热带气象统计预报
title	THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING—OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I：USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL
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